Within the remaining chapter of our fantasy basketball breakout sequence, we shift our focus to the facilities poised to shine this season. After protecting the breakout guards and forwards earlier this week, I’ve recognized 4 large males who’ve but to complete inside the highest 70 however are due for profession years in fantasy basketball. Let’s get into it.
Jalen Duren, C, Detroit Pistons
OK, I positively predicted Jalen Duren would escape final 12 months. And he variety of did. He is one in every of 4 gamers in NBA historical pastto common at the least 13 factors and 11 rebounds per sport earlier than turning 21. Duren additionally considerably improved his free-throw capturing, elevating his common by 18% from his rookie 12 months.
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So that you’re in all probability questioning why he is again on my record. Nicely, he falls simply shy of my top-70 threshold for breakouts.
The Pistons made sweeping adjustments to their entrance workplace, teaching employees and roster that can speed up Duren’s growth. how new Pistons head coach J.B. Bickerstaff utilized Jarrett Allen lends some perception into what to anticipate from Duren — extra minutes and a few (insert expletive) protection!
Duren had the highest defensive rebound share within the league final 12 months regardless of averaging fewer than half-hour per evening beneath Monty Williams. Understanding that Jarrett Allen averaged 32 minutes per sport over the previous 4 seasons beneath Bickerstaff should be music to Duren’s ears. Extra minutes typically equate to extra manufacturing, so a bump in scoring and rebounding is imminent.
Moreover, J.B. Bickerstaff reengineered the Cavaliers right into a top-10 defensive unit beneath his reign, which ought to bode nicely for Duren. Duren’s protection was abysmal final 12 months, falling from the sixtieth percentile in blocks and steals in his rookie marketing campaign to the thirty sixth and fifteenth percentiles, respectively. With a extra concerted defensive effort, we are able to anticipate a spike in shares. Lastly, he continues making strides as a playmaker, seeing his help charge bounce from 6.8% to 12.7% final 12 months.
Duren is at present going within the mid-fifth spherical of drafts. Whereas it is a affordable price ticket, I anticipate Duren will see a bump in his scoring, rebounding and inventory charges to outperform his ADP by at the least one spherical.
Isaiah Hartenstein – C, Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder
The previous Knick received paid handsomely in free company whereas concurrently becoming a member of among the best groups within the league. The Thunder had the very best file within the Western Convention final season however had been bounced from the playoffs within the Western Convention semifinals. The Thunder shored up their frontcourt by including Hartenstein, among the best rebounders within the league on a per-min foundation.
Hartenstein was phenomenal for New York final 12 months, ending the season with the next marks inside the highest 10 within the league, per Basketball Reference:
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2nd in offensive rebounding share
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2nd in offensive score
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third in defensive field plus-minus (DPM)
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fifth in defensive score
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fifth in whole offensive rebounds
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eighth in Steal share
Hartenstein was a beast for class leagues, ending 74th general, however would’ve been greater had he assumed the beginning middle position from the onset. That is why we’ll see the very best model of him this season — the minutes. Hartenstein averaged over half-hour in only one month final 12 months and he averaged 8.3 factors with 12.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists and three.2 shares per sport. That is proper on par along with his profession averages when taking part in 30-39 minutes: 9.1 factors, 12.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists and a couple of.6 shares. He is additionally an underrated passer who thrives as a short-roll man and generates assists from second-chance alternatives within the publish.
Hartenstein’s modest seventh-round ADP is a price proper now, however keep in mind, he is a most well-liked possibility in class codecs over factors leagues because the presumed beginning middle for among the best groups within the league.
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Onyeka Okongwu – PF/C, Atlanta Hawks
Predicting Okongwu’s breakout has confirmed futile over the previous few years. Clint Capela is a fixture of the Hawks’ beginning unit, however has time lastly run out? Capela is coming into the ultimate 12 months of his contract and can change into an unrestricted free agent in the summertime of 2025. Capela’s $22 million expiring deal is an attractable asset for any group needing assist on the middle spot (cough, cough, Knicks).
Enter Okongwu, whose new four-year, $61m deal kicks on this season — a robust indication that the Hawks are each invested in and dedicated to him — not Capela.
So, what can we anticipate from Okongwu if Capela is moved — or the Hawks unleash Okongwu?
In his profession as a starter, the fifth-year large man averages 11.7 factors, 8.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists and a couple of.6 shares (1.9 blocks + 0.7 steals) with a 13% utilization charge. Strong manufacturing. Nonetheless solely 23 years outdated, there’s upside in choosing Okongwu within the tenth spherical of drafts.
He completed 72nd in nine-category codecs in 2022-2023, regardless of coming off the bench in 62 of the 80 video games he performed that season. A extra featured and outstanding position is coming, so do not be shocked when he flirts with a double-double and places up the very best numbers of his younger profession.
Jalen Smith – PF/C, Chicago Bulls
The Bulls introduced in Jalen Smith on a three-year deal that could possibly be a cut price if Chicago can commerce Nikola Vučević. The previous tenth decide of the 2020 NBA Draft was a bench piece for the Pacers and did not see 20 minutes an evening over the previous two seasons. Nevertheless, Billy Donovan’s system is good for the athletic, floor-stretching large man.
At Bulls media day, Billy Donovan harped on needing to play sooner and push the tempo to generate extra shot makes an attempt and 3s. Final 12 months, Smith was restricted to simply 61 video games, however here is how his superior stats stacked up in 17 minutes per sport:
With the Bulls being so guard-centric and emphasizing Tempo, Smith is able to see an expanded position. Smith can play energy ahead or middle, so with Nikola Vučević declining and Patrick Williams slowed by damage, Smith ought to be part of the rotation instantly.
Smith’s emergence will take time because the Bulls will undoubtedly showcase Vučević for a commerce, however that does not imply Smith will not carve out at the least 20 minutes per sport. He is confirmed to be efficient in restricted minutes, and as soon as the deck clears to embrace the youth motion, Smith shall be in a primary place to get essentially the most minutes and alternatives in his profession. He is a plus-rebounder, environment friendly shooter from the mid-range to the 3-point line and, with restricted dimension and depth within the frontcourt, he is a participant whose inventory is up this offseason — formally on breakout watch.
