Loads goes into handicapping these NFL video games. It’s a labor of affection and an ever-evolving course of.Â
Two weeks in the past, I stumbled upon one thing that had labored up to now and seems to be again. And that is giving lengthy, exhausting seems at groups that didn’t cowl the unfold the week prior once they face groups that did cowl the unfold.Â
Two weeks in the past, these matchups went 7-2; final week, 4-1-1.Â
This week, there are 5 of them left after the Falcons got here by way of on Thursday.Â
You don’t need to wager these video games blindly, however for me, it’s an incredible leaping off level.Â
(All instances ET)
Sunday, Oct. 6
Jets @Vikings (9:30 a.m., NFL Community)
The Vikings are the shock of the season thus far, and in case you’re backing them right here, you’re doing so on the high of the market.Â
This recreation was Jets -2.5 final week. It is a 5-point swing. Not by way of a key quantity, I do know, however value it as a result of the Jets performed like rubbish within the rain and the Vikings had been up 28-0 on the Packers.
This would be the finest secondary Sam Darnold has confronted, and he has 5 turnover-worthy performs thus far (Will Levis has six, Aaron Rodgers zero). One would assume the Jets load up the field, dare Darnold to check the very best secondary within the NFL and rattle the Vikes’ quarterback.
New York didn’t put together effectively for Denver’s heavy blitzes final week, which is embarrassing because the Broncos blitz on the highest charge within the league at 44%. However it will be a fireable offense for OC Nathanial Hackett if he isn’t prepared for Minnesota this week. Brian Flores has blitzed by far probably the most within the NFL this season (82).
Because the media closes in and gushes over the Vikings, the Jets win this outright.
PICK: Jets (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 factors, or win outright
Give me the winless Jaguars right here at dwelling to lastly get a victory.Â
Apart from the Buffalo embarrassment, the Jags have been in three video games deep into the fourth quarter and are available up empty. That is partially on account of poor play-calling on high-leverage downs.Â
Indy will likely be with out Jonathan Taylor, and as we write this, it’s unclear if Anthony Richardson will begin at QB or if it’ll be Joe Flacco. The latter really scares me extra due to his accuracy on the brief passes towards this mushy Jacksonville zone protection.Â
The Jags had been taking part in man all season, switched to zone final week, and it largely labored till Stroud destroyed it within the fourth.
Get the Colts off that quick indoor monitor they usually decelerate. The Jags are 8-0 straight up (SU) and 8-0 towards the unfold (ATS) of their final eight video games vs. division rivals.
PICK: Jaguars (-3) to win by greater than 3 factors
Will Dak Prescott or Justin Fields carry out higher in Cowboys vs. Steelers?
Cowboys @Steelers (8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
Final week, the Steelers fell right into a 17-0 gap towards Indy and rallied to lose a detailed one. On Thursday Evening Soccer, Dallas gained and coated towards the lowly Giants. Since that Cowboys win, they’ve misplaced their finest two defensive gamers, DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons, and their No. 2 large receiver, Brandin Cooks.Â
Count on Pittsburgh to scheme famous person edge rusher T.J. Watt up towards rookie sort out Tyler Guyton, who’s tied for second amongst linemen with seven penalties and tied for second in sacks allowed (4).
How determined is the Dallas offense?Â
Appears to be like like Dalvin Cook dinner will likely be elevated from the apply squad for this recreation, as if Dallas will be capable of run the ball. In need of a Justin Fields meltdown, this feels just like the Steelers and, maybe, comfortably.Â
PICK: Steelers (-2.5) to win by greater than 2.5 factors
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports activities betting analyst who additionally writes concerning the NFL and NBA Draft. Earlier than arriving at FOX, he created the web site The Massive Lead. Observe him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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