We’re formally three weeks into the NFL season and quarterbacks nonetheless aren’t fairly “quarterbacking” to our expectations. Retread veterans proceed to dominate — even Andy Dalton and Malik Willis stepped up with top-10 performances this week — and younger gamers we anticipated to take a leap in Yr 2 or present instant influence as rookies are lacking the mark.
It’s time we consider their performances coming off Week 3, and our degree of belief of their go catchers.
Fantasy famous person QBs failing to hit fantasy draft worth
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud’s early season manufacturing isn’t panic-inducing however for the previous two weeks, he’s completed exterior the top-15 in fantasy factors. His solely top-10 end was in Week 1 towards an Indianapolis protection that’s had its fair proportion of early-season struggles, together with permitting Caleb Williams the most effective efficiency of his early profession (we’ll get to that in a second). This week Stroud accomplished 20 of 31 passes for 215 yards, one landing and two interceptions for his worst fantasy efficiency of the season.
Pulse test: Does Stroud get a go for his early season performances?
I’m keen to offer Stroud a go on his Week 3 efficiency towards Minnesota. Within the phrases of Brock Purdy, that “scheme is loopy.”
However it’s regarding that we’ve but to see Stroud surpass 260 passing yards. Stroud’s fantasy worth comes from quantity. He lacks the dashing upside to push him over the 20-point fantasy hump. 200 and fifty yards and two touchdowns is a wonderful day for a quarterback however merely not sufficient for Stroud to repay at his ADP.
Sit up for Stroud’s upcoming schedule and also you begin to see an issue. Other than a matchup right here and there, Stroud’s schedule isn’t notably quarterback-friendly. Stroud strikes from a strong mid-QB1 to a quarterback borderline QB with restricted dashing upside.
There’s a secondary query that we should reply — are we involved for Stroud’s receivers?
Stroud’s present quantity is sufficient to guarantee weekly fantasy upside for Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Dell had his finest efficiency of the yr in Week 3 however he’ll proceed to be a unstable asset till Stroud begins to constantly see 300-plus-yard performances. Whereas we’re involved about Stroud’s total output, there’s no panic for the receiver corps exterior of Dell.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Issues for Richardson are way more vital than Stroud’s. Whereas Stroud has had extra middling performances, Richardson has been growth/bust/bust this season, and we’re confronted with the truth of what Richardson’s fantasy manufacturing seems to be like when he doesn’t get dashing touchdowns. It’s not as if we anticipated a major leap in Richardson as a passer, however his talent set is unstable. Richardson leans closely on the deep ball with an especially excessive common depth of goal. When it hits, it’s magic. Nevertheless, after two straight misses, our belief degree is dropping.
Pulse test: Are we able to label Richarson as a bust?
The most important concern right here is that Richardson’s metrics are declining. Our 2023 pattern dimension was admittedly small however Richardson had only one interception in 84 makes an attempt. This yr, he already has 4 interceptions by 53 makes an attempt. In 2023, Richardson had a completion proportion of roughly 60%. This yr, it is 49%.
This week’s recreation was intriguing. For all of Richardson’s struggles and the low rating, Indianapolis had loads of red-zone alternatives. When it got here to goal-line seems to be, the Colts leaned closely on Jonathon Taylor. We drafted Richardson for dashing upside but when the goal-line touches proceed to tilt Taylor’s approach, we’ve received a significant downside.
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With Taylor’s dominance on the objective line and Richardson’s struggles by the air, are we involved for Richardson’s receivers?
Not like Stroud, Richardson’s underwhelming performances are considerably affecting his go catchers. Michael Pittman Jr. has a most of simply 4 receptions and 36 receiving yards. On Sunday’s “Fantasy Soccer Stay” present, I expressed concern for Pittman shifting ahead; that also stands after right this moment’s recreation. Deep-ball gamers like Alec Pierce definitely profit from Richardson’s talent set however can be unstable low-target gamers you by no means really feel snug beginning.
Deep-league QBs with main implications for his or her weapons
The Good: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Williams had his finest efficiency of the season in an especially high-volume recreation the place he threw 52 passes, finishing 33 for 363 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Forty-four yards of that was an end-of-half Hail Mary caught by DJ Moore on a deflection. Regardless, this was an enormous step in a optimistic path for Williams and the Bears. That stated, it’s necessary that we pause and contextualize this efficiency earlier than making Williams a weekly begin.
Pulse test: is that this degree of manufacturing the brand new expectation for Williams?
Indianapolis’ protection is an issue … and never in a great way. Williams having a robust efficiency towards the Colts isn’t precisely setting a brand new normal for what to anticipate shifting ahead. Sacks proceed to be a problem for Williams, turnovers stay an issue and the run recreation gives restricted help. Williams’ upcoming schedule is pleasant however he’s nonetheless solely a streaming choice. The step ahead for Rome Odunze was a superb signal for his growth and the resurgence of Cole Kmet was thrilling. It stays to be seen what kind of distribution we’ll see in a totally wholesome receiving corps however the elevated quantity and glorious matchups assist instill confidence in Williams’ go catchers shifting ahead.
The Dangerous: Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
In Levis’ protection, the Titans’ early schedule has been extraordinarily unfriendly. Chicago and the Jets have two of the highest defenses within the league and Inexperienced Bay’s go protection seems a lot improved in 2024 with the addition of Xavier McKinney. Levis has 4 touchdowns on the season with 5 interceptions, plus a fumble misplaced in every recreation. His Week 3 efficiency was a slight enchancment on prior weeks however that degree of output merely received’t get the job accomplished.
If we needed to make excuses for Levis, there’s loads of supply materials. Nevertheless, there are solely so many excuses you may make when half of the errors are totally your individual fault. Levis isn’t merely struggling towards powerful defenses — he’s struggling towards himself.
In relation to Levis’ go catchers, his inconsistencies make it troublesome to belief his receivers. Levis’ quantity isn’t sufficient to produce a number of fantasy-relevant receivers, notably when a good portion of his passes are going to the working backs. Of Levis’ 26 completions, seven have been to Pollard and Spears. We will count on Calvin Ridley to function because the WR1 in good matchups and DeAndre Hopkins to step up if protection is locking down Ridley. Levis’ struggles place his go catchers in flex positions with related volatility.
The Ugly: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Much like Levis, Nix had his finest efficiency of the yr, and very similar to Levis, we’re nonetheless left with zero encouragement for constant fantasy manufacturing. After we take a look at Nix, we’re taking a look at him from a perspective of how his play impacts the weapons round him as a result of Nix merely can’t be trusted whilst a streaming choice in deep leagues, and solely gives desperation Superflex worth.
Pulse test: Is there a single start-worthy choice within the Broncos offense?
We’re three video games into the season and Nix has but to throw a landing. He has 4 interceptions and has did not throw greater than 250 passing yards with most of his personal fantasy worth approaching the bottom. Whereas Levis has managed to offer some fantasy worth, Nix’s struggles by the air have destroyed consistency and upside for any go catcher.
Courtland Sutton’s Week 3 efficiency was his better of the season however nonetheless gives us with barely 10 fantasy factors in half-PPR. Josh Reynolds has stepped up because the Broncos’ WR2 however stays a low-volume asset and there’s no consistency for a 3rd pass-catching choice with Greg Dulcich going from a goal chief in Week 2 to zero targets in Week 3. The whole Broncos’ offense stays untouchable till Nix can present each quantity and touchdowns.
