Fantasy soccer Week 3 recap: Patrick Mahomes’ fantasy stardom is waning

This collection solutions quite a few fantasy soccer questions following the Week 3 video games (normally trying forward and ‘what does this imply?’). It options a wide range of methods, lots of that are coated on thisprimer article and reviewed in better element atwww.TheFootballScientist.com.

The superior metrics outdoors of KC’s distinctive metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, until in any other case famous. Fantasy level totals are in PPR environments. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Except in any other case famous, statistical rankings are by way of the top of the Sunday night time video games.

Ought to Patrick Mahomes’ fantasy managers be involved?

Patrick Mahomes has scored fewer than 20 fantasy factors in eight straight video games, a streak that dates again to final season. It’s by far the longest streak of scoring fewer than 20 factors in a sport in Mahomes’ profession, because the earlier excessive on this class was a four-game stretch in Weeks 4-7 of the 2019 season. There are much more regarding indicators from a latest fantasy manufacturing standpoint. Mahomes additionally had two streaks of three video games with fewer than 20 factors within the 2023 marketing campaign after having solely three of these in his earlier 5 years because the Chiefs beginning quarterback.

It’s not simply the shortage of peak manufacturing that is a matter. Mahomes additionally logged, by far, the worst points-per-game (PPG) common for Weeks 1-3 of his profession.Â

Mahomes had an general ADP of 28 in fantasy drafts (per Fantasy Professionals in PPR leagues), and that 14.82 tempo is much beneath what his fantasy managers had been anticipating. So what’s the basis reason for the diminished efficiency? And extra importantly, will the development reverse?

Let’s begin with the truth that this yr’s scoring tempo just isn’t essentially an anomaly, as Mahomes ranked 10th in PPG amongst passer-rating certified quarterbacks in 2023. That drops to 12th if Kirk Cousins and Kyler Murray, who each performed in eight video games final yr and thus fell simply in need of the move quantity required to qualify, are factored in.Â

Mahomes is at roughly the identical degree this yr, together with his 14.82 PPG tempo this yr inserting him 13th. So the 2024 season proper now could be merely mimicking what Mahomes did in 2023 in some ways, however there are further areas of concern.

Mahomes was first briefly move PPG in 2023 with a 12.07 mark, however that quantity is all the way down to 9.01 this yr. To be honest, ranks Mahomes fifth within the league in that class this season, so it’s not like he’s doing horrible, but he’s not producing finally yr’s league-leading tempo.

That quick tempo drop off is at the least partially as a result of a decline in crimson zone factors. Mahomes was eighth in PPG in that space of the sphere final season, with 6.54 factors. This season that’s fallen to 22nd, with 3.95 factors.

One place Mahomes has improved drastically is stretch vertical PPG (manufacturing on throws touring 20+ yards downfield). He ranks seventh this season with a 3.72-point tempo there, which is a large improve over his 1.24-PPG tempo in 2023 that ranked 28th.

To cowl all bases, let’s notice that whereas dashing hasn’t been an enormous scoring class for Mahomes, he has misplaced a little bit of manufacturing there as nicely. His 1.63 rush factors per sport this yr is eight-tenths of a degree behind final yr’s 2.43 tempo.

Spinning it ahead

Utilizing final yr’s quarterback scoring as a benchmark, Mahomes must common 19.7 PPG from right here out to rank as a top-five fantasy quarterback and roughly 21 factors per sport to justify the No. 28 ADP. That’s going to require a virtually five-point-per-game enhance over his present scoring clip.

That’s definitely attainable, provided that Mahomes has potential enchancment paths briefly and red-zone scoring, in addition to dashing, however he’ll should do it versus a extremely unfavorable schedule. The Chiefs’ remaining matchups embrace battles versus the Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Payments, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, and Pittsburgh Steelers defenses. 5 of these video games are on the street.Â

Mix that tough street with the Chiefs’ working again accidents and Travis Kelce taking part in at a pedestrian degree (5.0 PPG common, 21st amongst tight ends), and it’s totally doable Mahomes’ present manufacturing tempo stands out as the new normal for him.

Andrews has been arguably the largest fantasy bust this yr outdoors of Christian McCaffrey. Managers drafted the Baltimore Ravens TE at No. 50 general on common and but he ranks 29th in tight-end scoring with a dismal 4.17 PPG tempo.

As unhealthy as that’s, the largest challenge for his fantasy managers is Andrews simply posted the dreaded goose egg by notching zero factors on solely 20 snaps in what appeared to be a strong matchup in opposition to Dallas.

As we analyze the issue, let’s notice Andrews was extra of a quantity play than a home-run hitter final yr. He ranked fourth briefly PPG with a ten.2 common, versus ninth on vertical PPG (3.34) and tied for twenty-fourth in stretch vertical PPG (0.48).

Quantity is definitely a serious challenge for Andrews this yr, and it’s clearly seen within the Ravens’ quick move distribution metrics.

Ravens’ quick move distribution by way of Week 3.

Andrews is third in routes run at this depth degree, however he’s a distant fifth in targets, fourth in receptions, and fifth in receiving yards. To place it one other method, journeyman Nelson Agholor, who has been on 4 groups previously six years, is sort of equal to Andrews in lots of areas.

Spinning it ahead

One does should marvel if this may be as a result of injury-related rust. Andrews suffered a nasty ankle damage solely 10 months in the past, however what all of this exhibits is that this present manufacturing tempo doesn’t appear like a brief burst of inconsistency. For no matter purpose, Andrews has misplaced his place within the Baltimore passing sport and till he regains that place, it’s greatest to take a seat him.

Ought to fantasy managers maintain the religion with Mike Evans?

Evans had 23.1 factors in Week 1 largely as a result of two touchdowns, however he has generated zero touchdowns since then and has solely 15 targets and 10 receptions for the season.Â

What makes this much more notable is that Evans is presently averaging solely 40 receiving yards per sport, a tempo that will put him nicely beneath his accustomed 1,000 receiving yards for the season.

The issue isn’t quick PPG, as his 5.67 tempo in that class this yr is barely barely behind his 5.92 quick PPG tempo from 2023.

The difficulty is vertical PPG, as Evans additionally has a 5.67 PPG tempo on that route depth degree. That’s down almost 50 p.c from his 10.7 vertical PPG in 2023, a clip that was third highest amongst extensive receivers.

Spinning it ahead

The principle challenge is that Baker Mayfield is tied for twenty-fourth with a 6.3 vertical move per sport common in 2024 after rating third in vertical move makes an attempt in 2023. That is in all probability a facet impact of the Buccaneers teaching workers attempting to sluggish video games down as a result of Tampa Bay having a subpar secondary, however they could have to vary that method provided that the Buccaneers face the Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, Ravens, Chiefs and 49ers in 5 of the subsequent seven weeks.Â

Each a kind of video games has the potential to show right into a shootout, so Tampa Bay will in all probability don’t have any selection however to attempt to match and let Mayfield air it out extra typically. This implies fantasy managers ought to keep affected person with Evans (or commerce low for him for those who can) as he’s prone to begin posting some stronger level totals very quickly.

Swift has tallied a complete of 18.4 factors in his first three video games with the Bears regardless of getting 10 or extra scrimmage performs in each contest, however the offensive snap counts for the Chicago working backs point out that will change quickly. Listed here are the numbers from Weeks 1-2.

And listed here are the totals from Week 3. Enter Roschon Johnson.

Spinning it ahead

There are lots of potential causes for Swift’s decline (lots of that arecoated right here) however the actuality is that Chicago’s offensive line is horrible and the Bears at the moment are trying to probably divide the workload on this backfield. That’s not a recipe for fantasy success. Chicago does have two green-rated rush protection matchups arising, so these developments merge to make Swift a dangerous flex prospect for the subsequent couple of weeks.

(Prime photograph of Patrick Mahomes: Jamie Squire/Getty Photos)