Week 3 was the very best sleeper web page of the fantasy soccer season, with Jauan Jennings smashing and Chuba Hubbard rising to RB6. A few of the different picks have been minor hits; Andrei Iosivas was the WR22 and Zach Ertz had what’s satisfactory for a good finish sport in 2024.
Alas, you are solely nearly as good as your final envelope. Let’s get to Week 4 sleepers.
QB Geno Smith at Lions (43% rostered)
The Seahawks know their approach across the 313; they visited Detroit final September and escaped with an entertaining 37-31 time beyond regulation victory. This 12 months’s Lions won’t be as pinball pleasant, nevertheless; the Detroit protection is somewhat improved (Aidan Hutchinson’s pass-rushing chops make the secondary look higher) and Jared Goff has not been sharp to open the 12 months. Vegas known as for 52.5 factors between the Lions and Cardinals final week and the sport by no means bought near that quantity; the market has corrected in Week 4, with a 46.5 whole set for Monday evening.
Nonetheless, Smith is enjoying at a excessive stage. His low landing charge is probably going a fluke, and he is above league common in YPA, completion share and completion share (a scorching 74.8% clip). Perhaps this decide is extra about flooring than upside, however Seattle’s enjoyable receiver room additionally provides one thing to the case.
QB Andy Dalton vs. Bengals (12% rostered)
All we wished from Dalton final week was competent play. As an alternative, he was a star — the No. 6 quarterback of the week per PFF metrics. Even for those who simply care in regards to the fundamental stats, Dalton smashed — 319 passing yards, three touchdowns. And the subsequent project is a Cincinnati secondary that was toasted by Washington for 3 hours. Depend me in.
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RB Rico Dowdle at Giants (47% rostered)
In the event you’re a Dallas fan, you’d wish to burn the tape of the final two weeks. Little has gone proper. However we now have to notice how Dowdle seems to be zooming previous Ezekiel Elliott within the pecking order. Final week Dowdle logged 37 snaps to Zeke’s 15, and he had 13 alternatives (rushes and targets) to Elliott’s 5.
Clearly Dallas trailed for 3 hours towards Baltimore, and that kind of sport script will usually favor Dowdle. However the entire effectivity stats level to the youthful Dowdle — he is beating Elliott in yards per run, yards per catch, and (logically) yards per contact. Sitting at a determined 1-2, the Cowboys must lean into their finest gamers.
RB Roschon Johnson vs. Rams (15% rostered)
Perhaps there isn’t any proper reply within the Chicago backfield, however D’Andre Swift positive appears like a flawed reply. He is plodding alongside at 1.8 yards per carry and ranks fiftieth amongst 51 certified runners in success charge. Even a juicy Colts matchup in Week 3 didn’t get Swift going.
The Chicago offensive line has not performed properly, so our expectations should be modest. However whereas Swift did nothing along with his 13 carries final week (20 yards), Johnson managed 30 yards on his eight makes an attempt. A 3.8 YPC is not parade worthy, positive, but it surely in all probability leads Johnson to an expanded function in Week 4. The Rams dashing protection has truly been stout, however a lot of the working again puzzle in fantasy soccer is fixing the chance.
RB Tyler Badie at Jets (2% rostered)
That is extra of a deep-league stash than somebody to play this week, until you are in an enormous league and backed right into a nook. Badie’s quasi-breakout sport got here on 13 snaps at Tampa Bay, principally a garbage-time efficiency. However at the very least he broke off some profitable runs; in the meantime, Javonte Williams (2.2 YPC) and Jaleel McLaughin (2.2) have not been producing.
Head coaches know that September is about participant analysis, and it folds into higher selections down the street. Think about the cadence of Denver’s season final 12 months; it had an embarrassing 70-20 loss at Miami in Week 3, and sat at 1-5 via six weeks. The Broncos completed the 12 months on a 7-4 run, as Sean Payton began to acknowledge who his finest gamers have been. Maybe the circulate of this season will likely be related. I added some hypothesis Badie shares this week in my deepest leagues; it is nonetheless within the longshot file, however you’ll be able to squint and see believable upside.
WR Xavier Legette vs. Bengals (12% rostered)
Clearly, Diontae Johnson is the alpha goal for Carolina, however there’s room for at the very least yet one more helpful pass-catcher. Adam Thielen was on his approach final week (3-40-1) however injured his hamstring throughout a fairly landing catch; he is out a number of video games. That results in a set of believable sleepers. Legette is the primary title I am going to take a look at, however the group may embrace Jonathan Mingo and tight finish Tommy Tremble.
Mingo ran extra routes than Legette final week, 28 to twenty (working off 39 Andy Dalton dropbacks). However how a crew handles an damage in-game usually differs from what it does with every week to organize. Legette’s effectivity has been higher than Mingo’s of their respective restricted samples, in order that’s why he is my first learn on this spot.
TE Tyler Conklin vs. Broncos (27% rostered)
I am torn on Conklin’s Week 3 breakout. A 6-93-0 line from a good finish in 2024 has you hugging strangers; it led to a TE5 end. Conklin additionally not often comes off the sphere for New York, logging a 90% or higher snap share for 3 straight weeks. That stated, most of Conklin’s work towards New England got here on secondary reads; it is pretty that Aaron Rodgers is expert sufficient to search out these alternatives, however we’d like extra first-read targets earlier than Conklin graduates to Circle of Belief privileges.
The form of the Denver protection breaks the tie. The Broncos are the second-stingiest protection relating to permitting WR fantasy factors this 12 months (Patrick Surtain II — the highest purpose, however removed from the one one), however the inside protection is much less stout, and tight ends have scored over the league imply towards this unit. Conklin’s profile has pluses and minuses, however this looks like a superb Week 4 spot for him.
D/ST Las Vegas Raiders vs. Browns (26% rostered)
Cleveland in all probability ought to bench Deshaun Watson, however the Browns invested a lot of their franchise quarterback that they are reluctant to make a change. Watson’s play has been terrible by any metric — he sits twenty seventh in score, twenty eighth in play success, twenty fifth in landing charge and twenty sixth in passing yards (regardless of the third-most makes an attempt). He is additionally taken a league-worst 16 sacks.
Las Vegas was horrible within the Week 3 ambush loss to Andy Dalton and Carolina, and which may truly embolden the decide right here. Antonio Pierce has put his roster on alert, and I think that can result in a extra engaged efficiency. So usually, it is a zig-zag league.
