The Edmonton Oilers enter the ultimate week of preseason video games with a transparent plan that’s being hampered by damage restoration, latest efficiency and lack of expertise in key areas.
The preseason is a harmful place for an NHL staff. Sweeping selections are made utilizing the smallest potential samples. For that purpose (and others), NHL coaches choose established veterans in key roles.
For Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch, the 2024-25 defence may have one inexperienced defenceman within the high 4 to start out the season.
All indications have Ty Emberson taking part in on the second pair with veteran Darnell Nurse. The issue? They’ve but to play an NHL shift collectively.
Irrespective of how this coaching camp performed out, uncertainty on opening evening was seemingly.
Because it seems, accidents to a number of Edmonton defencemen over the primary portion of camp means a number of oft-mentioned tandems haven’t performed collectively in any respect. Listed below are the projected opening-night pairings and the variety of minutes performed as companions thus far in preseason:
| Tandem | Minutes | X-Purpose Share |
|---|---|---|
| Mattias Ekholm-Evan Bouchard | 20 | 78.4 pct |
| Darnell Nurse-Ty Emberson | 0 | |
| Brett Kulak-Josh Brown | 0 |
All numbers five-on-five, through Pure Stat Trick
Knoblauch has an elite high pairing he can depend on, however the second and third duo have spent zero time collectively as a result of damage and a plethora of auditions.
That ought to right itself within the days to come back, nevertheless it’s getting late in a fast hurry.
Nurse has been skating because the begin of camp and is collaborating in drills, and Oilers followers needs to be heartened by the group’s use of this time to heal Nurse as absolutely as potential.
A lot is driving on the veteran having a profitable 2024-25.
In the meantime, Emberson, a late offseason pickup who has impressed along with his defensive acumen, has discovered success along with his new staff.
By means of two video games and 36 minutes of five-on-five taking part in time, Emberson is the proprietor of a 66 p.c anticipated aim share. His commonest associate thus far is PTO signing Travis Dermott. The 2 males delivered a 73 p.c anticipated aim share of their sport collectively.
Emberson’s associate one yr in the past was Mario Ferraro, who has an inexpensive facsimile of Nurse’s vary of abilities. In accordance with Puck IQ, the duo confronted elite competitors over 111 minutes (specialists advocate 200 minutes earlier than trusting outcomes). The Harmful Fenwick proportion (49 p.c) and Harmful Fenwick proportion relative to teammates (plus-13 p.c) are high quality.
Nurse with Emberson, primarily based on the Puck IQ math from Ferraro-Emberson a yr in the past, is a worthwhile experiment. It could behoove the Oilers to get this duo on the ice collectively within the coming week.
Deployment of Nurse-Emberson
In August, I regarded at one of the best model companions for Nurse. The conclusion? Nurse and Evan Bouchard are a powerful pairing.
For the reason that starting of the 2022-23 season, Nurse-Bouchard performed 222 minutes collectively five-on-five and produced a 61 p.c aim share in opposition to all high quality of competitors.
Nonetheless, Nurse with Bouchard isn’t as efficient at five-on-five in comparison with Mattias Ekholm and Bouchard over these seasons (additionally 61 p.c anticipated targets however a mammoth 66 p.c precise aim share).
What about Nurse and Bouchard with out Connor McDavid at five-on-five? In 132 minutes over the past two seasons, the duo had a 50 p.c aim share and a 58 p.c anticipated aim share.
How does that examine to Ekholm and Bouchard with out the captain? In 601 minutes five-on-five over the past two common seasons, they helped create 63 p.c of the targets and a 57 p.c anticipated aim share.
Ekholm-Bouchard is the highest pairing, and is robust sufficient to run away from the McDavid line. Knoblauch must resolve deployment, however McDavid with Nurse and Emberson might have sufficient worth for the teaching employees to run them as a five-man unit throughout even-strength conditions.
Options (inner)
Troy Stecher has been unable to play a lot this preseason, however he regarded good doing it. He performed one sport earlier to Saturday, a complete of 13:16 five-on-five, and got here in at 50 p.c anticipated targets. Stecher has a mountain (494 NHL video games) of expertise in comparison with Emberson (30 NHL video games) and is extra of a pure puck mover. There may be proof that participant model (passing defenceman) is a greater match for Nurse.
In 48 minutes collectively, Nurse and Stecher have been 3-0 targets with a 59 p.c anticipated aim share.
Josh Brown is a shutdown sort who’s prone to play third pairing, however in two video games (32:15 complete ice time) he owns an 0-2 aim outcome however a 51 p.c anticipated aim share. Small pattern, and Brown is underneath some warmth for his efficiency within the Calgary street sport on Sept. 23. In that sport, he confronted a big group of bona fide NHL talent forwards whereas partnered with Cam Dineen.
It’s unlikely Brown sees NHL time with Nurse on the second pairing, nevertheless it’s an possibility not but chosen by Knoblauch. With the variety of preseason video games dwindling, it would change into a actuality if Nurse-Emberson stumbles.
The final line of defence for Knoblauch in his seek for a second pairing might contain veteran Brett Kulak. He can play both aspect, however prefers his sturdy (left) aspect. Nonetheless, if the membership arrives at opening evening and not using a good feeling about Nurse-Emberson, we may see Nurse-Kulak rolled out yet one more time.
Over the previous three seasons, Nurse-Kulak have performed 109 minutes along with strong outcomes (10-6 targets, 50 p.c anticipated aim share).
Based mostly on Knoblauch’s verbal, it’s full velocity forward for Nurse-Emberson.
The interior choices, so as of potential success, look like Stecher, Kulak and Brown.
Exterior options
It’s potential the Oilers use the waiver wire to shore up the precise aspect of the defence, however exterior auditions shall be tough because of the lack of showcase time for the incoming participant.
The Oilers could make a commerce, the Dmitri Samorukov deal (for Klim Kostin) occurred in early October 2022 and labored out effectively for Edmonton.
Sam Malinski of the Colorado Avalanche is a participant who may very well be obtainable and matches the outline of participant want for the group.
Earlier this month I wrote, “In a method, he’s the alternative of Emberson, who’s a strong shutdown participant whereas Malinski will make a residing with the puck on his stick” and people phrases nonetheless apply.
Backside line
The questions earlier than coaching camp stay unanswered, principally as a result of accidents involving key parts.
It isn’t Knoblauch’s fault however it’s his downside.
An answer has not but introduced itself.
We wait.
(Photograph of Ty Emberson: Leila Devlin / Getty Photographs)
