Jets, Bengals or Dolphins? Choosing one sub-.500 workforce to make the playoffs in AFC

Coming into the season, the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins have been all seen by my NFL Projection Mannequin as AFC contenders with at the very least a 60% likelihood of creating the playoffs.

Clearly, issues haven’t gone as deliberate for any of those groups. The Jets and Dolphins are 2-3, whereas the Bengals have the identical report because the lowly New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4).

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So are all of them useless within the water? Not precisely. Given how lackluster the AFC has been total this season, I’d nonetheless venture at the very least certainly one of these groups to make the playoffs. However selecting which one is a a lot more durable query. Thankfully, my mannequin is as much as the problem. Right here is the way it sees issues stacking up for the Jets, Bengals and Dolphins:

New York Jets

Present playoff odds: 52%

The mannequin nonetheless likes the Jets regardless of the turmoil that adopted their loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday in London. For these residing underneath a rock, the Jets fired their coach, Robert Saleh, simply 5 video games into the season. Firing a coach so early shouldn’t be sometimes an indication of a workforce that’s headed to the playoffs, however there are causes to assume they may nonetheless get there.

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The highest motive is the Jets nonetheless have probably the greatest defenses within the league. In addition they play in a division that doesn’t have an elite workforce (sorry, Buffalo). So, whereas I’m unsure if quarterback Aaron Rodgers will ever regain his previous kind off his Achilles damage, he’s most likely ok to win some video games on the again of that protection.

Nonetheless, I’ll admit the Rodgers query scares me. Amongst certified quarterbacks, he ranks twenty seventh in EPA/dropback and twenty first in dropback success fee, based on TruMedia. Essentially the most regarding factor concerning the Jets’ passing offense in the meanwhile is that Rodgers ranks twenty eighth in EPA/dropback when going through no strain. The one quarterbacks worse in that class this yr are Will Levis, Deshaun Watson, Gardner Minshew, Bo Nix and Bryce Younger. If you happen to can’t transfer the ball effectively with clear pockets, effectively, that’s not an incredible signal.

Making issues worse, the run offense has stalled out, too. The Jets rank within the backside 5 within the league in EPA per rush try and within the backside 10 in speeding success fee.

That every one being stated, I do anticipate issues to get higher as Rodgers good points extra continuity together with his teammates. And possibly he’ll get to play with an previous one quickly. Regardless, if Rodgers improves his play in clear pockets, that ought to assist open up the operating sport somewhat, and the Jets offense could be an average-ish unit.

One closing motive for optimism: The Jets face the fourth-easiest schedule, per my projections. They solely play fives video games towards groups that at the moment have a successful report, and two of these video games are within the subsequent two weeks.

Betting breakout

Jets to make the playoffs (+110): I believe the Jets are an excellent guess to make the playoffs at something plus-money. And amid the entire chaos, this seems like an ideal buy-low spot on a workforce that also has an elite protection and an offense with upside. And if famous person large receiver Davante Adams is sporting inexperienced inside the subsequent week or two, even higher.

Miami Dolphins

Present playoff odds: 40%

Let’s begin right here: My projections anticipate QB Tua Tagovailoa to be again underneath middle by Week 8. Perhaps that’ll show to be optimistic, however that’s what I’m projecting now based mostly on experiences on the market about his well being.

And that’s an enormous issue right here, as a result of the present Dolphins are nowhere near a playoff workforce. However a Dolphins workforce with Tagovailoa on the helm is likely to be.

Tagovailoa is aware of the right way to run Mike McDaniel’s offense and the right way to make the most of receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. There’s loads of upside with this workforce. We’ve seen it earlier than. The Dolphins have tons of pace, however they want the best quarterback to orchestrate all of it. The outcomes with out Tagovailoa haven’t been fairly over the previous few years.

I’ll be sincere: I don’t have a ton of confidence in my Dolphins projections due to the uncertainty with Tagovailoa. It’s price mentioning, although, that the Dolphins received an enormous enhance in playoff odds by rallying to beat the Patriots on Sunday. Their odds getting into Week 5 have been 28%, however they jumped to 40% after the win (and with another key AFC groups dropping). For now, they rank forward of the Bengals as a result of they’ve another win within the financial institution and will get their difference-making QB again in just a few weeks.

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Cincinnati Bengals

Present playoff odds: 33%

Out of those three groups, the Bengals are literally rated as one of the best total workforce, per my projections. The issue is that they’re 1-4 regardless of already taking part in the Patriots and Carolina Panthers (their one win) and blowing fourth-quarter leads towards the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens. If you’re 1-4, it doesn’t matter how good you’re; your playoff odds are going to take a big hit.

The Bengals are the alternative of the Jets, as their offense shouldn’t be wherever close to the issue. It’s the protection, which ranks thirtieth in EPA per play and thirty first in defensive success fee. My projections view the Cincinnati protection because the second-worst within the NFL, and it simply misplaced beginning defensive again Dax Hill to an ACL damage. I don’t see how issues get a lot better for the Bengals on that facet of the ball.

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If there may be any silver lining, it’s that they get to position some average-ish (or beneath) offenses within the New York Giants, Cleveland Browns (x2), Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers (x2), Tennessee Titans and Denver Broncos the remainder of the best way. That’s loads of video games towards offenses that don’t precisely make you shake in your boots.

Bengals QB Joe Burrow and this offense needs to be electrical so long as they keep wholesome. They rank because the NFL’s second-best offense (per my projections), however whenever you’re consistently needing to attain 30-plus factors to win soccer video games, your margin for error might be going to be too small to beat.

(Pictures of Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers: Jamie Squire and Al Bello / Getty Photos)