Justin Jefferson Is Coming into the WR Mount Rushmore Debate

Consider it or not, that is what a quiet season for Justin Jefferson appears to be like like.

By 4 weeks, the Vikings’ star broad receiver has averaged simply 89.5 receiving yards per sport—his lowest mark since his rookie season. He has simply 20 receptions—a median of 5 per sport common, properly under the common (6.5) from his first 4 seasons. And but, he’s additionally carried out this:

And this:

And this:

Let’s not mince phrases: Justin Jefferson is the best receiver within the NFL, and it’s not even shut.

Earlier this season, Jefferson was requested about how defenses defended Jets broad receiver Garrett Wilson, and whether or not he may be taught something from that. “Respectfully, I’m not Garrett Wilson,” Jefferson responded.

Respectfully, Jefferson isn’t like another broad receiver within the league. The opposite prime wideouts—Davante Adams, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, et al—are usually not on his degree. That’s a bunch of gamers who look prone to make it into the Professional Soccer Corridor of Fame. However Jefferson isn’t simply on a Corridor of Fame trajectory—he’s on an all-time nice trajectory. These different guys are chiseling their faces onto busts for Canton. Jefferson is chiseling his into the Mount Rushmore of broad receivers. It’s a refined however important distinction.

Nobody disputes that Jerry Rice is historical past’s greatest receiver. He’s the NFL’s profession receiving chief by greater than 5,000 yards, regardless of enjoying in an period with much less passing. He gained three Tremendous Bowls. He performed for 20 seasons. Rice is the GOAT. After him, most would choose Randy Moss because the second-best receiver in historical past. After Moss? Third place will get difficult. Choose your legend: Larry Fitzgerald, Don Hutson, Terrell Owens, et al. Argue about it with your folks.

Jefferson is on his strategy to securing the no. 3 spot for himself. He may even supplant Moss, if his profession goes in addition to attainable (I’ll chorus myself from saying he may supplant Rice, simply due to Rice’s sheer longevity and #ringz). Not sufficient will get made from the completely mind-boggling yardage tempo Jefferson has been on by simply over 4 seasons of his profession. He has extra receiving yards than any participant in historical past by 64 profession video games, with a reasonably respectable hole between him and no. 2 Julio Jones:

Jefferson is averaging 97.8 receiving yards per sport for his profession. The subsequent highest mark is Calvin Johnson at 86.1 yards per sport. Whereas Jefferson hasn’t had time to develop previous and doubtlessly put up diminished numbers that deflate his profession common, contemplate that even present younger stars are nowhere near him. Chase (82.0), Hill (80.9), and Lamb (78.0) are all greater than 15 yards behind Jefferson. Take into account, too, that Jefferson’s 2024 common of 89.5 yards per sport is healthier than any participant’s profession common in historical past and but has introduced his personal profession common down. It may really feel like we’re within the twilight zone when taking a look at these numbers.

To get a way of what Jefferson’s profession numbers appear like in opposition to one of the best gamers in historical past, right here’s a chart exhibiting the cumulative receiving yards of some Corridor of Famers, plus Jefferson:

Clearly Jefferson has an extended strategy to go. The sheer size of Jerry Rice’s line on this chart is thoughts boggling—however at the very least by four-plus seasons, Jefferson is on-pace to smash all these guys.

Right here is Jefferson in comparison with some stars who’re retired or whose careers are seemingly nearing their finish:

Jefferson didn’t match Odell Beckham Jr.’s early-career tempo however has since eclipsed him, and it’s Jones who’s clearly Jefferson’s closest competitor now. However we must always contemplate two items of context. The primary is that Jones performed in a extra pass-friendly setting than Jefferson. From 2011 to 2015 (Jones’s first 5 years within the league, protecting his first 65 video games), NFL groups averaged 235.4 passing yards per sport; from 2020 to 2024, groups have been averaging 224.8 passing yards per sport. That’s almost a 5 p.c drop—and but Jefferson nonetheless has Jones beat. And the second piece of context is that Jones got here into the league at age 22, however Jefferson did at age 21. Mix that with Jones lacking 15 video games in his first 5 seasons due to accidents (in comparison with simply seven missed video games for Jefferson), and Jones was simply over a month shy of his twenty seventh birthday when he performed his sixty fourth profession sport; Jefferson turned 25 in June. So Jefferson is sort of two years youthful than Jones was on the similar level of their respective careers.

Assume there are present stars—like Chase—who may be near Jefferson in terms of manufacturing of their first 4 seasons? Right here’s how Jefferson compares in a number of the present prime wideouts:

Chase stands aside from the remainder of his friends … however he’s nonetheless properly in need of Jefferson. Chase has performed in 49 profession video games and compiled 4,017 yards—the seventh-most in historical past to start out a profession. Jefferson had 4,787 in his first 49 video games, the very best mark in historical past by greater than 200 yards. (And in case you’re questioning why Adams isn’t on this group, it’s as a result of he had a really gradual begin to his profession in Inexperienced Bay; his 3,236 receiving yards by his first 64 video games ranks one hundred and sixty fifth in NFL historical past. Take into consideration that: Jefferson has greater than three thousand extra receiving yards than Adams did on the similar time of their respective careers!)

And eventually, only for enjoyable, right here’s how Malik Nabers, the newest LSU star to burst onto the NFL receiving scene, compares:

By 4 video games, Nabers has 386 yards, whereas Jefferson had 348 by the identical level in his profession. So it’s early—very, very, very early—however technically Nabers is out-pacing Jefferson. (Although it’s taken an obscene and unsustainable 52 targets to get Nabers to that whole. The Giants star, who’s unlikely to play in Week 5 due to a concussion he suffered final week, will want a leap in effectivity to maintain up this tempo).

You might assume that Jefferson advantages from a pleasant period for passing offenses, particularly when in comparison with Rice, Moss, and a number of the different Corridor of Famers above. To some extent that’s true, however even when adjusting for period, Jefferson comes out forward. Take Rice, as an illustration. When he started his profession in 1985, groups averaged 226.6 passing yards per sport. In 2023, that quantity was 236.3 (not as huge a distinction as you thought, huh?). If we bump up Rice’s 1985 numbers by 4.3 p.c to account for the distinction—and do the identical for 1986, 1987, and so forth—we will estimate that Rice would’ve had 5,750 receiving yards in a 2023-like passing setting. For Jefferson, his numbers truly come down considerably (passing was inflated in 2020 and 2021 when in comparison with 2022 and 2023), however he’d nonetheless clock in with an adjusted 6,070 yards.

Jefferson tops all these different Corridor of Famers when adjusting their yards as properly. So don’t make the error of considering a passing increase is fueling Jefferson’s ridiculous yardage tempo—he’s merely that good.

And that gradual begin to 2024 referenced on the prime of this piece? It will not be so gradual. Jefferson is definitely placing collectively his best season ever. He’s averaging 3.17 yards per route run, which might be one of the best mark of his profession. The rationale his yardage is down is as a result of the 4-0 Vikings have merely been too good and are throwing the ball far lower than common. Minnesota has recorded simply 106 move makes an attempt this season, tied for fifth-lowest within the league. Final yr, the Vikings had the fourth-most makes an attempt. The yr earlier than that, that they had the third-most. Jefferson’s uncooked quantity stats may take a leap if the Vikings lastly get into some adverse sport scripts and Sam Darnold begins throwing the ball across the yard.

You need superior stats for Jefferson? Professional Soccer Focus has graded him within the prime 5 on the place in each single season of his profession. Matt Harmon of Reception Notion charted Jefferson’s routes from 2023 and located that defenses double-covered Jefferson on 15.8 p.c of performs, the very best fee within the league. In 2022, that quantity was 21.1 p.c, once more the very best mark within the league. (Harmon additionally gave Jefferson excessive marks in his efficiency operating nearly each single route on the sector, in opposition to any defensive protection). Since he entered the league, Jefferson leads the NFL in anticipated factors added per route run. ESPN’s analytics division has him as the second-best receiver since he entered the league—I’ll be emailing them quickly to right the error, since I’m positive they meant to have him at no. 1.

The one possible way Jefferson falls quick within the GOAT debate is in touchdowns. Jefferson has 34 in his profession. Rice and Moss had 53 apiece by 64 video games. Jones had a fame for not catching many landing passes, and he had the identical 34 scores that Jefferson has by 64 video games. Jefferson’s manufacturing merely hasn’t translated to the top zone in the best way it has for a number of the different stars of the sport. Maybe, at 6-foot-1, his body and ability set aren’t a great match for the top zone. Maybe he’s simply been unfortunate. Not less than this yr he has 4 landing receptions in 4 video games, tied for the league lead and much outpacing his common fee—if that continues, he may catch again up within the scoring division. I actually wouldn’t rely him out.

What’s extra is that Jefferson stands out as the one broad receiver on this league who is really QB-proof. High wideouts like Adams and Chase have seen their numbers sink when enjoying with subpar or hobbled quarterbacks—however not Jefferson. Final season after Cousins tore his Achilles, Jefferson went on to tally 32 receptions for 503 yards and two touchdowns with a mixture of Nick Mullens, Jaren Corridor, and Joshua Dobbs throwing him the ball. That line contains the Week 14 sport when Jefferson left within the second quarter with a chest harm. Take that sport out, and he averaged 119 yards per sport with out Cousins. It shouldn’t be a shock that he’s succeeding with Darnold as properly—Jefferson is the uncommon mega expertise who can succeed with anyone. (And if there’s any query why Darnold is having a profession resurgence in 2024, Jefferson is an enormous a part of the reply).

Do you bear in mind how we used to speak about Aaron Donald? In his prime, Donald wasn’t simply one of the best defensive deal with within the league—he was on an entire completely different degree from all of the gamers at his place. He was the last word X issue, defying comparability to another inside lineman. Jefferson ought to be considered in an analogous gentle. As a result of with respect to Chase, Hill, Lamb, Wilson, and whoever else you view as being on the prime of the place, Jefferson isn’t like these guys. He’s one of the best receiver within the league, on his strategy to changing into among the finest in historical past. Don’t take him with no consideration.