The 2024-25 NBA season is right here! We’re breaking down the most important questions, best- and worst-case situations, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 groups. Get pleasure from!
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
2023-24 end
Offseason strikes
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Additions: Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Keita Bates-Diop (unofficially!), Rob Dillingham, Terrence Shannon Jr., Joe Ingles, PJ Dozier
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Subtractions: Karl-Anthony Cities, Kyle Anderson, Jordan McLaughlin, Monte Morris, Wendell Moore Jr., TJ Warren
The Massive Query: Will shifting KAT hold Minnesota “on the large desk?”
Behind a resurgent Rudy Gobert and a smothering Jaden McDaniels, the Timberwolves boasted a traditionally nice protection final season. Chris Finch’s membership allowed 2.2 fewer factors per 100 possessions than second-place Boston; in accordance with NBA.com’s John Schuhmann, that was the third-largest hole between Nos. 1 and a pair of since 1996.
That protection produced Minnesota’s first playoff collection victories in 20 years. However the Wolves ran aground in opposition to the Mavericks, who held Anthony Edwards to 40% capturing within the paint, pressured him to cross on 46% of his drives and dared his teammates to beat them. They couldn’t. Minnesota scored simply 112.1 points-per-100 in opposition to Dallas, a mark which might’ve completed twenty fourth in offensive effectivity through the common season.
“The West is so brutal,” Timberwolves president Tim Connelly not too long ago advised Darren Wolfson of KSTP-TV. “You recognize, it’s a shot right here, a shot there, who’s wholesome — a lot is matchups and well being. However we simply need to proceed to be on the large desk.”
Which makes the blockbuster commerce of Cities, Minnesota’s second-leading scorer final season, all of the extra fascinating. Does shifting KAT for Randle and DiVincenzo assist Minnesota keep “on the large desk” this season?
The affirmative case seemingly stems from two beliefs. First: that reigning Sixth Man of the 12 months Naz Reid can change extra of KAT’s manufacturing than you may assume, at a fraction of the fee. (A minimum of, till he will get the contract extension for which he’ll be eligible after the season, which the Wolves will virtually assuredly supply him, and which is able to nonetheless are available in considerably beneath what Cities will earn on his supermax.)
And second: that what the Wolves wanted most to grease the wheels of their offense was extra shot creation — somebody in addition to Edwards to interrupt down the protection and generate a very good look.
That’s why Connelly traded a pair of doubtless juicy future picks to leap up and draft Kentucky’s Rob Dillingham. However 165-pound 19-year-olds not often function for playoff groups. So: enter Randle, a superior facilitator to Cities over the previous 5 seasons, posting a better help share and decrease turnover charge.
Whereas he’ll nonetheless obstinately spin-move into visitors every so often, Randle has confirmed more proficient at breaking defenders down off the dribble, drawing assist and organising teammates. Since 2020, solely 4 gamers have notched the help on extra nook 3-pointers than Randle: Luka Dončić, Trae Younger, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokić.
With these shoulder-checking drives and deft deliveries, although, come loads of possessions concluded with a clang. Whereas Cities made fewer than 36% of his 3-pointers solely as soon as in 9 years in Minnesota, Randle has made greater than 36% as soon as in his 9 professional seasons. Even when Mike Conley Jr. replicates his career-best 44.2% 3-point accuracy and DiVincenzo’s in a position to preserve the monster leap he made as a long-range marksman final season, Finch may need bother producing sufficient half-court spacing in Gobert/Randle/McDaniels lineups to present Edwards room to cook dinner.
That’s the very last thing Minnesota wants: Extra progress from Ant, who made actual strides as a playmaker final season en path to his first All-NBA choice. He’s in all probability the group’s most direct path to the top-10ish offense that may assist safe that seat “on the large desk.”
The Wolves very properly might — if Edwards exhibits that progress, if Finch could make Gobert and Randle mesh extra rapidly than Rudy and KAT did, if Conley and DiVincenzo can hold everybody on schedule, if McDaniels takes an enormous step, and if everybody can cough the ball up much less (two straight bottom-10 finishes in turnover charge) whereas pushing it extra (twenty eighth in transition frequency). That appears like numerous “ifs,” although, proper?
So right here’s yet one more: If sufficient of these issues don’t go the Wolves’ approach, they might be proper again on the surface wanting in, questioning in the event that they’ve already missed their greatest likelihood, having jettisoned a cornerstone in service of avoiding the second apron and saving luxurious tax {dollars}. Seems like an uncomfortable place to sit down, regardless of which desk you’re at.
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Finest-case state of affairs
The protection sustains. Edwards and Reid submit one other season of across-the-board career-highs. Nice play from the newcomers, a bit of jolt from Dillingham and the creativity of Finch and his teaching workers mix to push Minnesota into the highest 10 on offense, giving the Wolves the basics of one other final-four end — this time, with higher depth and extra seasoning.
If every little thing falls aside
Minnesota returns to its 2022-23 wrestle to seek out synergy. Randle and Gobert get in one another’s approach, and each of them get in Ant’s, leading to a return to clogged-toilet half-court units and loads of griping from Minnesota’s new marquee idol. Which, in flip, produces grousing from Gobert — large canines who don’t get fed gained’t guard the yard, in any case — and a slight however notable defensive decline. Beneath-average offense and not-quite-elite protection isn’t a recipe for achievement; actually, in one of many deepest Wests we’ve ever seen, it sees the Wolves slip again into the play-in combine.
Fantasy spin
Are we prepared for Anthony Edwards’ true breakout season? I’ve ranked him late-first in class leagues as a result of that is the 12 months he takes one other leap in scoring, improved effectivity and inventory accumulation. For all of the disrespect Rudy Gobert receives, he is a double-double machine who ought to swat a few pictures a sport. Gobert’s mid-fourth ADP is honest, however I might desire to get him towards the top of the fourth spherical.
Wolves head coach Chris Finch confirmed that Julius Randle is beginning at PF, so count on Naz Reid to stay in an analogous position as final 12 months. Reid’s coming off a profession 12 months the place he took residence Sixth Man of the 12 months honors and his ADP is simple at 100. Mike Conley is one other participant whose ADP is low. At 36, he is nonetheless an efficient passer who will help fantasy managers in steals and 3s past the tenth spherical. — Dan Titus
2024-25 schedule
I’ll go beneath. Whereas Minnesota gained 56 final season with Cities lacking a major chunk with a torn meniscus, Edwards, Gobert, Conley, McDaniels, Reid and key reserve Nickeil Alexander-Walker missed simply 26 video games mixed. With how robust the remainder of the West seems to be this season, the damage luck breaking in opposition to Minnesota only a bit extra — mixed with a fits-and-starts transition to life after KAT — could be sufficient to shift a handful of final 12 months’s W’s onto the opposite aspect of the ledger.
