NASCAR Cup Collection at Kansas odds, skilled predictions for playoff race: Can Kyle Larson full a Kansas sweep?

After which there have been 12. After final week’s elimination race in Bristol, the NASCAR Cup Collection is headed to Kansas Speedway for the primary race of the Spherical of 12. This subsequent spherical contains Kansas, Talladega and the Charlotte Roval. With the competitors tightening, a lot of the typical suspects are nonetheless within the operating for the championship title.

Eradicated: Ty Gibbs, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski and Harrison Burton.

Nonetheless alive: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Austin Cindric, Daniel Suárez, Alex Bowman and Chase Briscoe.

To arrange for the subsequent playoff race, our NASCAR specialists, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, are answering our questions on takeaways from the primary spherical, how these playoffs are stacking up in comparison with earlier years, their favorites and lengthy photographs this weekend’s race and extra.

The Hollywood On line casino 400 at Kansas Speedway is that this Sunday at 3 p.m. ET, and you’ll watch it on the USA Community.

Let’s get into it!

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NOOB Query of the Week (beginning robust!):�You summed up the primary spherical of the playoffs, saying, “Spherical 1 contained no true main surprises, which is definitely the largest shock of all.” As a brand new fan of NASCAR, I’m curious how this compares to different years. Expectations had this because the scariest first spherical, but it surely wasn’t. So, how are these playoffs truly stacking up to date within the historic view?

Jeff: When it comes to true championship favorites, nobody was eradicated in Spherical 1. And regardless of the occasional shut calls, that’s the case after all of the mud settles. The playoffs are designed to provide considerably of a small benefit to drivers who’ve been most constant all through the season as a result of the primary 26 races award playoff factors that can be utilized to make it by the rounds. On this case, Tyler Reddick wanted his robust regular-season efficiency to advance as a result of he had a mediocre spherical general. Denny Hamlin got here closest to elimination, however that’s partly due to his unprecedented engine penalty that took away a few of his helpful factors. Anyway, the tl;dr is it’s a reasonably regular playoffs to date.

Jordan: To this point, it’s largely shaping up as anticipated with reference to who we thought would emerge because the title contenders. Particularly so within the circumstances of Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney, all of whom seemed formidable. And even amongst these eradicated, there weren’t any actual surprises — although a case may very well be made that Ty Gibbs’ elimination was a bit surprising. This all units up for what ought to be a very intense second spherical, the place some huge names start to fall off the playoff grid.

What do you concentrate on the outcomes to date? It looks as if fewer surprises within the first spherical lends extra … possibly not “legitimacy,” however maybe credit score to the playoff construction as a complete. However did you miss the drama?

Jeff: I all the time discover it to be considerably of a reduction when the majority of the contenders advance, primarily as a result of there’s a situation during which the highest drivers may bomb out — probably by circumstances not of their very own doing. Whereas we’d contemplate Kyle Larson the driving force of the season, for instance, what if he had piled right into a wreck at Bristol and immediately discovered himself eradicated? From the standpoint of somebody who paperwork the game, I don’t care who wins, however I additionally need the championship to have as a lot credibility as potential. Having 4 robust drivers make the title race reduces the possibilities the champion will really feel like a fluke winner, which continues to be a risk (and could be dangerous for the game, for my part). I’m all for drama, however let’s see it between guys going all out for a win as an alternative of some random factor occurring to them.

Jordan: Regardless of the fairly straightforwardness in Spherical 1, it wasn’t prefer it was fully devoid of drama. How Bristol unfolded for Martin Truex Jr. and Ty Gibbs held intrigue as every went from being effectively positioned to advance to being eradicated resulting from rushing on pit street. Watkins Glen was a wildly intriguing race crammed with twists and turns (pun meant) that ended with a non-playoff driver in victory lane and set the desk for an intense Bristol.

You stated in your podcast,�The Teardown, that the product at Bristol “can’t be what is suitable” for a short-track product. The place do they go from right here? Is any change on the horizon?

Jeff: I’m pretty assured in saying nobody is aware of what the answer may very well be. The Subsequent Gen automotive is solely not good on brief tracks (although it’s distinctive on intermediates), and nothing appears to vary that. NASCAR has tried making aero adjustments to the automotive, none of which have labored, and officers refuse to extend horsepower (which drivers imagine would assist). The tires have proven promise at instances — besides Goodyear can’t appear to determine methods to replicate the situations that create an excellent race. So in need of altering the automotive once more — which realistically received’t occur for years — there doesn’t appear to be a lot optimism for a turnaround.

Jordan: Whether or not it’s honest or not, the truth is that the accountability for bettering short-track races falls on Goodyear’s shoulders. As a result of whereas NASCAR has made numerous tweaks to the automotive, none of them have actually remedied the issue, and different options like elevated horsepower or redesigning the automotive aren’t possible right now. All of which means the most effective remaining possibility is softer compound tires that put an onus on drivers to handle their stuff — and thereby enhance passing. Exactly what we noticed at Bristol within the spring and some different instances all through the season. However the difficulty, in fact, is that Goodyear has struggled to develop a tire that persistently wears. So till this occurs, there isn’t a assure what high quality of racing you’re going to see on brief tracks.

Who’s scorching, and who’s not, heading into Spherical 2 of the playoffs? Is it straight in step with the standings? What ought to we learn about this subsequent set of races and tracks?

Jeff: As a result of the seeding is reset and reverts to the order of who has essentially the most playoff factors, there’s not essentially a correlation between scorching/not within the standings. Alex Bowman truly scored by far essentially the most factors general in Spherical 1, however he enters Spherical 2 beneath the cutline as a result of he doesn’t have very many playoff factors. Equally, Austin Cindric tied for the second-most factors scored within the final spherical and in addition begins beneath the cutoff headed to Kansas. So, actually, these rounds are merely three-race mini-seasons during which momentum might be troublesome to keep up (which is by design, in some ways). When it comes to this spherical, it’s an analogous “wild card” to Spherical 1: a superspeedway and a street course, together with a extra conventional monitor (Kansas this week, which makes this race of utmost significance).

Jordan: Should you’re a believer in momentum, it’s important to just like the course Bowman and Cindric are heading in after impressively turning heads in Spherical 1. Every was considered a possible candidate for early elimination; as an alternative, each confirmed constant velocity whereas posting stable outcomes that they largely lacked in the course of the common season to advance with none problem. And though that doesn’t imply something for the reason that standings reset, the boldness increase definitely helps, heading right into a bracket crammed with difficult tracks.

Who’s your favourite to win at Kansas? Is that this an excellent monitor for Kyle Larson, who received there in Might and proclaimed his love for the monitor (“mile-and-a-halfs are superior”)?

Jeff: Although three of the subsequent 5 races are conventional 1.5-mile intermediate tracks, we truly haven’t seen the Cup Collection race on considered one of these circuits for the reason that rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600 on Memorial Day Weekend. Certain, you might say a Darlington or Michigan is considerably comparable, however not precisely. So it’s been some time since we’ve seen an actual take a look at of 1.5-mile monitor power, and whoever is sweet at Kansas ought to have an important probability to additionally run effectively at Las Vegas and Homestead within the subsequent spherical. And who will that be? Nicely, the sportsbooks have Larson as a heavy favourite — and you’ll’t blame them, actually. However from this view, Denny Hamlin ought to have an important probability to reestablish his championship hopes at Kansas (the place he led essentially the most laps within the spring race earlier than ending fifth). Hamlin, the lively Kansas wins chief with 4 victories, has an insane 2.8 common end within the 5 Subsequent Gen automotive races at Kansas.

Jordan: Proper now, how are you going to not choose Larson? Certain, we’ve seen him over-drive just a few instances this season, resulting in crashes in races the place he had the quickest automotive, however Bristol demonstrated that he has no equal when he’s on his recreation. And that this monitor is amongst his greatest solely additional solidifies the assumption that Sunday’s race is his to lose. The expectation is that he completes the Kansas sweep.

Who’s a protracted shot who may throw in an upset?

Jeff: I’m unsure he’s fairly a longshot, however Bowman is operating effectively on the proper time and occurs to be good at Kansas (four-for-four in top-10 finishes there within the Subsequent Gen automotive). He led a race-high 107 laps within the Kansas playoff race two years in the past earlier than ending fourth and there’s nothing to counsel he can’t present up with a quick sufficient automotive to tug off a victory and launch himself into Spherical 3.

Jordan: Ross Chastain (+2500) is a reputation to observe on Sunday. Chastain is available in having posted three top-10 finishes previously 4 races — two of which had been inside the highest 5 — and within the spring Kansas race, he led 43 laps. It is a nice alternative for him to gather his first win on the season.