NFL Week 1 Below Evaluation

Welcome to NFL Below Evaluation, a brand new weekly column the place I’ll pontificate on misguided narratives, inexplicable teaching selections, and different subjects across the NFL. Every Tuesday all through the course of the season, you’ll get takes from me primarily based on what occurred the earlier weekend, with an eye fixed on what’s to come back.

The Bengals offense can be wonderful.

There’s no getting round the truth that Cincinnati laid an egg in Week 1. The Bengals had been the week’s largest favorites, and they didn’t look able to play, producing simply 13 first downs, 224 yards, and one landing in a loss to the Patriots. It was an uninspired efficiency that has introduced on all types of takes:

Joe Burrow is overrated.

You’ll be able to’t win by taking part in offense this fashion.

They miss former offensive coordinator Brian Callahan.

My take? Calm down. It was a foul sport, however there’s no have to panic. The Patriots applied a wise plan that we see usually from large underdogs: shorten the sport. The Bengals had simply eight offensive possessions—the fewest within the NFL in Week 1 and three fewer than the league common. Cincinnati’s protection struggled to cease the Patriots’ run sport, so Burrow’s unit didn’t get numerous alternatives. When you’ve got fewer possibilities, the errors are magnified, and it’s more durable to make up for them.

The Bengals put collectively a 13-play, 63-yard drive that took 6:33 off the clock within the second quarter, but it surely resulted in no factors. Burrow’s move to tight finish Mike Gesicki was initially dominated a landing, however a replay confirmed that the ball hit the bottom. On the very subsequent play, Burrow discovered tight finish Tanner Hudson in stride, and Hudson was headed for the tip zone earlier than Patriots security Kyle Dugger punched the ball out on the 1-yard line. It was one in every of 4 fumbles on this sport, and the Patriots recovered three of them.

The Bengals ranked tenth amongst all groups in offensive success charge in Week 1. This metric is useful as a result of it measures whether or not every play had a optimistic consequence. For instance, a 6-yard achieve on third-and-5 is a optimistic. A 6-yard achieve on third-and-10 shouldn’t be. Utilizing success charge tells us that on a down-to-down foundation, the Bengals had been producing outcomes that had been above league common in Week 1. The issue was they didn’t have numerous alternatives, they usually had been a catastrophe on the high-leverage performs.

I’m not telling you the Bengals offense is ideal. Its finest receiver, Ja’Marr Chase, performed however is clearly sad along with his contract, and his efficiency (six catches for 62 yards) wasn’t as much as his typical requirements. No. 2 receiver Tee Higgins was out with a hamstring damage. The scheme might undoubtedly do extra to offer Burrow benefits, whereas Burrow can’t be content material taking what the protection offers him. He wants to seek out methods to push the ball downfield. The Bengals had only one play of 20-plus yards on this sport. It’s onerous to win that method.

However we’ve a proof of idea to indicate that this factor can work. In 2022, when Burrow was wholesome and groups had been targeted on limiting the Bengals’ explosive performs, the offense adjusted and completed fourth in effectivity. They’ve proven up to now that they will win by taking part in totally different types of offense. As for Burrow, from a bodily standpoint, he seemed good in Week 1. He was scrambling and throwing on the transfer and delivering correct passes.

The Bengals have some stuff to determine, and it will get no simpler with a matchup at Kansas Metropolis in Week 2, however so long as Burrow is wholesome and Chase is on the sector, the most definitely final result is that this offense will discover a components that works and have higher performances going ahead.

There isn’t any longer an argument for Deshaun Watson’s on-field upside.

Every part concerning the Browns’ offensive efficiency in opposition to the Cowboys signaled: “PANIC!!!” Watson went 24-for-45 for 169 passing yards, with one landing, two interceptions, and 6 sacks. His dropback success charge was 23.2 p.c—the bottom of any Week 1 starter. Watson was pressured 25 instances—essentially the most of any Week 1 starter. When he was pressured, he made dangerous conditions worse, going 5-for-17 for simply 22 yards and 6 sacks. I suppose $230 million doesn’t go so far as it used to?

Sure, Watson was taking part in in less-than-ideal circumstances behind two backup offensive tackles. However to cite Don Draper, that’s what the cash’s for. Watson is being paid to offer his group an opportunity beneath these circumstances and to make up for shortcomings on the roster. However Watson has proven no potential to do this. In truth, he’s proven no potential to play at a excessive degree even when the circumstances have beengood. Amongst 41 quarterbacks with a minimum of 400 dropbacks over the previous three seasons, Watson ranks thirty ninth in anticipated factors added per move play—forward of solely Zach Wilson and Bryce Younger.

However the on-field knowledge will get even worse. Over the previous three seasons, Watson has began 13 video games. His finestsport (as measured by dropback success charge) ranks in roughly the 62nd percentile for all quarterbacks. In different phrases, it’s not that Watson has been up and down or inconsistent. He’s been flat-out dangerous, and he’s proven no indicators that he’s able to producing an important sport efficiency. The finest model of Watson we’ve seen in a Browns uniform is one that provides solely barely above-average beginning quarterback play. Neglect concerning the quarterback we noticed with the Texans in 2020. Until we’re supplied with new on-field proof on the contrary, we are able to safely assume that soccer participant now not exists.

And none of this criticism of Watson and his play accounts for the very critical considerations about his off-field habits and his therapy of ladies. On Monday, ProFootballTalk reported {that a} lady has filed a lawsuit through which she says Watson sexually assaulted her throughout a date in 2020. The main points within the new lawsuit are heinous and strikingly just like the abuse two dozen ladies who beforehand filed lawsuits in opposition to Watson mentioned they skilled after they had been employed by the then-Texans quarterback to offer massages. Two Texas grand juries declined to indict Watson on legal prices associated to the earlier lawsuits, and he settled most of them, however the NFL decided he violated the league’s private conduct coverage, and he served an 11-game suspension in 2022.

For now, the Browns will proceed to maneuver ahead with Watson as their beginning quarterback. They nonetheless have an opportunity to be a aggressive group this season as a result of their protection is legit, and Kevin Stefanski is an efficient head coach. However we’re now in yr three of the Watson period, and it’s clear that Cleveland has a quarterback drawback that it doesn’t know learn how to resolve.

The 49ers offense nonetheless seems to be just like the 49ers offense.

A lot about this 49ers offseason has screamed {that a} Tremendous Bowl hangover is underway. The Brandon Aiyuk commerce request. The Trent Williams holdout. Christian McCaffrey’s calf damage. Minutes after the 49ers misplaced to the Chiefs in February, their gamers and coaches talked about how essentially the most devastating factor was realizing what it might take to get again there. There’s a motive just one Tremendous Bowl loser this century has returned to the ultimate sport the following season.

However apart from the truth that McCaffrey was (surprisingly) inactive on Monday evening in opposition to the Jets, the 2024 model of the 49ers seemed just about precisely the identical because the 2023 model did. It was like nothing had occurred this summer season, they usually had been simply choosing up the place they left off. That they had a three-and-out and punted on their first drive. However after that, they scored on their subsequent eight possessions and piled up 401 yards in a blowout 32-19 victory over the Jets. Quarterback Brock Purdy was an environment friendly distributor. Deebo Samuel motored previous (and thru) defenders. Backup working again Jordan Mason ran for 147 yards. And head coach Kyle Shanahan made it look simple, placing Jets defenders in a blender down after down and possession after possession.

It’s unclear how a lot time McCaffrey will miss, and sooner or later, that can matter. However with the continuity and expertise the 49ers have on offense, they’ve the luxurious of not needing to hurry McCaffrey again. They will let him get wholesome with the large image in thoughts and nonetheless gentle opponents up on a weekly foundation. It’s one sport in an extended season, however after a tumultuous summer season, the acquainted emotions on Monday evening needed to really feel good for the Niners.

The Jets offense has loads to determine.

Let me show that I’m not a Jets hater and begin with the optimistic. Aaron Rodgers did some Aaron Rodgers issues on Monday evening. His arm seemed as stay as ever. He made some big-time throws to Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard. He drew the 49ers offside, took the free play, and located Lazard for a landing. From a bodily standpoint, this was not a state of affairs the place you thought, “Oh no! He seems to belike a 40-year-old coming off of an Achilles damage!” And given how Kirk Cousins performed on Sunday, that’s a fairly large deal (sorry, Kirk).

Now, for all the pieces else. On one sideline, we had Shanahan dialing up explosive performs for fullback Kyle Juszczyk. On Rodgers’s sideline, we had digital camera pictures of offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett watching a pill. Be sincere. You forgot that Hackett was the Jets’ offensive coordinator, didn’t you? Yeah, I type of did too. There was that complete story line about how the Jets tried (however failed) to switch him this offseason, and now September is right here, and the man remains to be hanging round and calling performs. On one hand, Rodgers has management on the line of scrimmage, and the offense will run the way in which he needs it to run. However, Rodgers has loads on his plate with all the same old quarterback stuff. Somebodyhas to design the offense and the sport plan and name the performs. And that individual is seemingly nonetheless Hackett.

The Jets’ sport plan was to run the ball early and infrequently. By way of the primary three quarters, when the sport was nonetheless comparatively aggressive, they ran it 13 instances for 31 yards (2.4 yards per carry) on early downs. That they had the worst dashing success charge on early downs of any offense within the NFL in Week 1, but they caught with it and stored placing themselves in powerful third-down conditions. The Jets had 9 possessions with Rodgers within the sport, they usually failed to select up a primary down on 5 of them. They failed to select up a couple of first down on seven of the 9 possessions.

The offense nonetheless has an opportunity to be competent. If the road holds up (and it was OK in move safety in opposition to the 49ers), Rodgers has some items to work with in Wilson and Breece Corridor (and possibly his previous Inexperienced Bay buddy Lazard?). But when the Jets are going to be really profitable, it’ll be virtually totally on Rodgers’s shoulders. The scheme and training aren’t giving him an edge. Monday evening was an vital reminder of that.

The Rams are actually an “infrastructure” group.

Enable me to clarify what I imply by this. There are particular groups within the NFL that deserve the advantage of the doubt due to the infrastructure, beginning with the pinnacle coach–quarterback mixture. The Chiefs are one instance. So long as Patrick Mahomes is wholesome and Andy Reid is the pinnacle coach, they’ll have an opportunity to be actually profitable, no matter all the opposite elements. I’d put the Ravens with John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson in that class too. There’s a powerful argument constructing for the Payments with Sean McDermott and Josh Allen as nicely.

Beforehand, I didn’t have the Rams in that class. After I was getting ready for this season, I checked out issues like their lack of expertise on protection, the lack of Aaron Donald, and the accidents on the offensive line, and I questioned whether or not they’d be a great group this season. The Rams misplaced in additional time to the Lions on Sunday evening, however as I used to be watching that sport, I got here to the belief that so long as they’ve Sean McVay and this model of Matthew Stafford, they’ll at all times have an opportunity.

The Rams went into Week 1 down each of their beginning offensive tackles. Throughout the sport, they misplaced their second-string left sort out and their beginning left guard. Additionally they misplaced vast receiver Puka Nacua. But the Rams nonetheless piled up 26 first downs—tied for essentially the most of any group in Week 1. That they had the eighth-best success charge for any offense. One of the crucial useful issues within the NFL is having a coach and/or a quarterback who can drawback resolve. There can be accidents and dangerous matchups and unfortunate bounces and unlucky calls. The dangerous groups use these issues as excuses. The nice groups determine it out anyway.

That’s what we noticed from the Rams on Sunday evening. We noticed it in how Stafford knew when to eliminate the ball and learn how to regulate his arm angles, take hits, and get again up. McVay was doing all the pieces he might to scheme it up and name the proper performs and put his gamers in positions to succeed. It wasn’t good, and the Rams nonetheless misplaced the sport (Stafford didn’t get an opportunity to the touch the ball in additional time), however the work McVay and Stafford did to offer the Rams an opportunity on the highway in opposition to a great Lions group remains to be actually, actually spectacular.

I don’t understand how this season will go for the Rams. It’s doable that the accidents will turn into an excessive amount of to beat. However so long as Stafford is on the sector and McVay is on the sideline, I’m not counting them out within the NFC.

Antonio Pierce has the belt for the NFL’s worst in-game decision-maker.

Josh McDaniels, for those who’re studying this, I ship my apologies. Sure, you earned the honour final yr, however you will need to nonetheless be employed as an NFL head coach to qualify in 2024. It’s time to relinquish the belt.

Which brings us to Pierce. The Raiders misplaced, 22-10, to the Chargers on Sunday. They misplaced for quite a lot of causes, together with being minus-three on turnovers and totaling simply 14 first downs on offense. However Pierce’s in-game decision-making actually didn’t assist. He made the type of conservative decisions that we hardly ever see from a coach within the fashionable NFL. These had been straight out of a 1994 teaching handbook.

The primary baffling choice got here with 10:30 left within the sport. The Raiders had been trailing 16-7 and confronted a fourth-and-1 from the Chargers’ 14-yard line. That is an apparent “go for it” state of affairs. The Raiders had scored one landing all sport and had been now 14 yards away from the tip zone. They must rating a landing sooner or later to win the sport. That is when you need to be aggressive. Even for those who don’t get it, the Chargers can be pinned again. It’s 1 freakin’ yard! However Pierce as an alternative selected to kick a 32-yard area purpose.

But the following choice was much more mind-boggling. The Raiders had a fourth-and-1 on the Chargers’ 43 with 7:15 left. They had been dropping 16-10, realizing they wanted a landing to win the sport. And Pierce punted!

You CANNOT punt in that state of affairs. I don’t wish to hear about how the Raiders protection was taking part in nicely or about the way it was an extended yard or about how you need to coach together with your intestine. Punting in that state of affairs is flat-out teaching malpractice. You’ll be able to’t ask your gamers to offer you all the pieces they’ve obtained and inform them that you simply belief them and consider in them after which punt in that spot. Punting there’s making a call that goes one hundred pc in opposition to the thought of giving your group the very best likelihood to win. We would not see a extra apparent “go” state of affairs through which a group chooses to punt all season.

I’m actually not attempting to select on Pierce. I absolutely perceive that sport administration is only one small side of teaching. There may be communication and management and scheming and a number of different issues that Pierce is chargeable for. There’s additionally loads occurring through the course of a sport, and it’s simple for a coach to make a mistake when he must suppose and act shortly. That’s why so many coaches have somebody of their headset they will belief to inform them what to do in these spots.

The massive concern for me right here is that Pierce was dangerous at these items final season as nicely. He was essentially the most conservative coach within the NFL after taking up from the aforementioned McDaniels halfway by means of the 2023 season. However I gave him the advantage of the doubt since he was an interim head coach studying on the fly and leaping into a brand new state of affairs. The truth that nobody within the group addressed this with Pierce through the offseason is troubling.

The NFL is all about attempting to achieve small edges. 9 video games in Week 1 had been determined by seven factors or fewer. You don’t have to be an analytics nerd. You simply want to make use of the info that can assist you make good selections to offer your group the very best likelihood to win. Pierce didn’t do this on Sunday, and he hasn’t executed that since he took over final season.