Welcome to NFL Below Assessment, a weekly column the place I’ll pontificate on misguided narratives, inexplicable teaching selections, and different subjects across the NFL. Every Tuesday all through the course of the season, you’ll get my takes on what occurred the earlier weekend, with a watch on what’s to come back.
That was an “I’m right here!” recreation from Jayden Daniels.
And that was an “I’m right here!” second within the fourth quarter of Monday evening’s recreation towards Cincinnati. Going through a key third-and-7 with simply over two minutes left, Daniels, the no. 2 choose in April’s draft, beat the blitz and dropped a stunning move proper within the bucket for a 27-yard landing to Terry McLaurin. It capped off a near-perfect evening for Daniels and the Commanders offense. Washington bought the ball six occasions (not counting a few kneel downs) and scored 5 touchdowns and a subject objective. Daniels went 21-for-23 for 254 yards and two touchdowns. He additionally ran 12 occasions for 39 yards and a landing.
How about this for an early-season shock: The Commanders have essentially the most environment friendly offense within the NFL by way of anticipated factors added per drive. Their final 13 possessions: 5 touchdowns, eight subject objectives, no punts, no turnovers. They haven’t punted since Week 1!
The toughest factor to do within the preseason is predict how rookie quarterbacks will carry out. I seemed on the mixture of offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, a shaky offensive line, and a bunch of move catchers that didn’t have a complete lot past McLaurin, and though I appreciated Daniels as a prospect, I assumed he would have a troublesome first season. Whoops! It’s solely three weeks, however I can’t think about there’s a happier fan base than the Commanders’ proper now. That was a flat-out electrical efficiency in entrance of a nationwide viewers.
Monday evening felt like the tip of this model of the Jaguars.
I like Trevor Lawrence. I feel he’s gifted. I feel he’s had some unhealthy luck. I feel there’s a great quarterback in there someplace. However my soccer hipster mates? Effectively, they actually like Lawrence. Nothing is ever his fault. It’s the teaching and the scheme and the receivers and the offensive line. They’re certain that Lawrence will reside as much as his predraft hype as soon as he finds himself in a greater state of affairs. Perhaps they’re proper. (Be aware: I don’t suppose they’re proper.) However what I am fairly certain about is that Doug Pederson’s likelihood to get extra out of Lawrence is just about over.
The Jaguars bought smoked by the Payments, 47-10, on Monday evening. The sport was not aggressive. The Payments scored touchdowns on their first 5 possessions, and it was basically over earlier than halftime. However I had one thought as I used to be watching: What would these two groups seem like in case you swapped quarterbacks and saved the whole lot else the identical? I feel the Jaguars could be fairly good with Josh Allen as their quarterback. And I feel the Payments would wrestle to be aggressive with Lawrence. It’s in all probability not truthful to match Lawrence to Allen, however on the very least, we are able to say that one man has proven a capability to elevate everybody up round him, and the opposite man wants a certain quantity of assist to carry out like an above-average starter. It’s fairly clear which one is which.
Over the previous three seasons (this doesn’t depend his disastrous rookie 12 months with City Meyer), Lawrence ranks 14th in EPA per move play and seventeenth in success price. Sometimes—not at all times, however sometimes—we all know whether or not a quarterback is nice by this level in his profession. Lawrence has began 53 video games and acquired his large second contract, and even his largest supporters are nonetheless hoping one thing will click on.
The disheartening factor is that Lawrence seems to be regressing. He’s finishing simply 52.8 % of his passes this season, which places him thirtieth amongst certified passers—forward of solely Anthony Richardson. He’s reacting to stress poorly and taking sacks on 11 % of his dropbacks, which ranks twenty seventh. We nonetheless see some high-level throws, however there isn’t a steadiness in any respect in his recreation.
I feel everyone knows what is going to in all probability occur now. Pederson, who was employed to get the perfect out of Lawrence and has failed, will get fired in some unspecified time in the future between now and the tip of the season. The Jaguars will once more search for a brand new coach who can unlock a greater model of Lawrence. And we’ll wait to see what his precise ceiling is. Lawrence will flip 25 in October. There’s nonetheless hope. Nevertheless it’s time to cease clinging to the model of Lawrence we thought we have been getting when he was drafted and consider him based mostly on what we’re really seeing.
The Panthers could make the playoffs.
Let me be clear about one thing: If you happen to inform anybody about this take, I’ll destroy you. That is simply between us. Can we perceive one another? Good. Now, on to the take …
Andy Dalton was improbable towards the Raiders! Nothing about his quarterback efficiency felt fluky. He went 26-of-37 passing for 319 yards, with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The numbers might have been even extra spectacular had the sport been nearer and the Panthers wanted to remain aggressive. Dalton did the whole lot. He ripped throws over the center. He dropped dimes within the pink zone. He unlocked large receiver Diontae Johnson, who had been lacking from the offense within the first two weeks. The Panthers seemed like a totally totally different offense than the one we noticed with Bryce Younger. They’d the eighth-highest EPA per drive of any group in Week 3.
I do know, I do know. It’s just one recreation. However reply this query for me: Is there an actual distinction between Dalton and the opposite quarterbacks in his division, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, and the 2024 model of Kirk Cousins? I say no! All of these guys can look good one week and unhealthy the following. They will function at a excessive stage when circumstances are good, however they’re liable to crumbling when the state of affairs round them will get shaky.
Proper now within the NFC South, the Saints and Bucs are each 2-1. The Panthers and Falcons are each 1-2. Carolina really has an opportunity to be related this season. I do know, I can’t imagine I’m saying it both. OK, now transfer on to the following take, and let’s by no means converse of this once more.
The offense hasn’t been the problem for the 49ers.
The defending NFC champs are 1-2 after a little bit of a meltdown Sunday towards the Rams; they blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead in a recreation with out working again Christian McCaffrey, large receiver Deebo Samuel, and tight finish George Kittle. It could be simple to hyperlink the loss to the accidents and conclude that the offense is struggling with out three of its key gamers and presume that Brock Purdy can’t function beneath these circumstances. The one drawback? There’s not a complete lot of proof to again that up.
The 49ers had 25 first downs and 425 yards of offense towards the Rams. Purdy ranked fourth amongst all Week 3 starters in EPA per move play. If we have a look at each recreation performed for the reason that begin of 2023, the 49ers produced an offense in Week 3 that ranks within the 93rd percentile, based mostly on EPA per drive. Once more, that was with out McCaffrey, Samuel, or Kittle! On the season, the 49ers are fifth in EPA per drive and sixth in success price. Their offense continues to be working at a excessive stage.
So what’s the issue? Effectively, let’s check out the opposite aspect of the ball. Kyle Shanahan made a training change within the offseason, firing defensive coordinator Steve Wilks shortly after the Tremendous Bowl loss and changing him with Nick Sorensen. However that swap has not helped San Francisco’s protection—and there’s a statistical case that the 49ers are worse on protection now than they have been final 12 months, after they completed the season twelfth in EPA per play allowed. They rank twenty fourth in EPA per drive and twenty fifth in success price by three weeks. In the meantime, particular groups let the 49ers down on a number of events towards the Rams.
Going ahead, this will get a little bit tough. Every part I discussed above relies on a three-game pattern, and the bar for the 49ers is excessive. It’s Tremendous Bowl or bust, they usually’re coping with lots of uncertainty. Purdy is now reportedly experiencing again soreness, and McCaffrey’s long-term standing stays unclear as he travels to Germany to see a specialist for his Achilles harm. On protection, sort out Javon Hargrave is probably going out for the season with a triceps harm he suffered on Sunday.
The excellent news for the 49ers is that Kyle Shanahan and Purdy confirmed that they will nonetheless mix to provide a extremely environment friendly offense even after they’re short-handed. The unhealthy information is that the accidents are piling up, and the options on protection is perhaps exhausting to seek out.
Let’s welcome Sean McVay and Matt LaFleur to the NEC for Week 3.
What’s the NEC, you ask? The No Excuses Membership. I simply created it like two minutes in the past. Our mission is to acknowledge NFL coaches who perceive what their jobs are. Please notice that we’re on no account affiliated with the New England Conservatory or the Nippon Electrical Firm, whose slogan is “Orchestrating a brighter world.” Our slogan is “That’s what the cash’s for.”
Let’s begin with McVay. The Rams have been large residence underdogs Sunday towards the 49ers, and early on, it appeared like they might get blown out. Los Angeles trailed 14-0 and confronted a fourth-and-6 from its personal 43 with 6:22 left within the first half. McVay boldly referred to as a faux punt. It labored! The Rams picked up a primary down and went on to attain a landing to get again within the recreation. Bear in mind, they have been lacking large receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. So what did McVay do? He turned to extra two tight finish units. The Rams used 12 personnel (one working again, two tight ends, two large receivers) on 43.6 % of their snaps—that was after having not used 12 personnel for a single snap within the first two weeks of the season. In different phrases, McVay adjusted—what an idea!
The Rams offense ranked fourth in EPA per drive in Week 3, regardless of its harm points. Quite a lot of coaches within the NFL love to make excuses. Had the Rams misplaced badly on Sunday, nobody would have blamed McVay if he did the identical. It’s exhausting to win whenever you’re down a bunch of fine gamers. However McVay understands that he will get paid some huge cash to determine it out when circumstances are lower than ideally suited. And on Sunday, he provided options that helped get the Rams their first win.
Then there’s LaFleur, who has now guided the Packers to back-to-back wins with backup quarterback Malik Willis. In his first two NFL seasons with the Titans, Willis accomplished 53 % of his passes, averaged 5.3 yards per try, and threw no touchdowns with three interceptions. Thus far this season with the Packers, he’s accomplished 73.5 % of his passes, averaged 9.5 YPA, and thrown two touchdowns with out an interception.
I suppose teaching issues, huh? LaFleur, on the fly, has redesigned the Packers offense to intensify Willis’s strengths, and it’s labored superbly. A few weeks in the past, when Jordan Love suffered a knee harm within the opener, this appeared prefer it is perhaps a misplaced season for the Packers. They didn’t have an important backup plan and had simply traded for Willis in late August. However LaFleur has performed what coaches are paid to do: put gamers in positions to achieve success. Now the Packers are 2-1, with Love anticipated to return in Week 4.
So welcome to the membership, Sean and Matt, and congratulations on a job nicely performed. Dues have to be turned in by the tip of the month, and membership will be revoked as early as subsequent week in case you punt on fourth-and-1 from the opponent’s territory.
Andy Reid bought conservative, and it almost value the Chiefs.
Have I been burned repeatedly previously for questioning numerous features of how the Chiefs function? You betcha! Is that going to cease me from persevering with to do it? In fact not! Kansas Metropolis is 3-0 after its 22-17 win over the Falcons on Sunday evening. Its offense doesn’t look fairly as explosive as some folks anticipated, however that would possibly not be an enormous deal. The Chiefs have time to determine issues out as they stack ugly wins.
What would possibly really find yourself being an enormous deal is Reid’s recreation administration. Within the second quarter, dealing with fourth-and-2 from the Atlanta 35-yard line, Reid opted for a 53-yard subject objective fairly than going for it. Within the third quarter, dealing with fourth-and-goal from the Atlanta 3, Reid despatched out Harrison Butker to kick a 21-yard subject objective fairly than going for it. And within the first half, after the Falcons have been penalized on a Patrick Mahomes landing move, Reid might have gone for 2 from the Atlanta 1-yard line. As an alternative, he simply kicked the additional level.
I perceive that not all of these selections have been no-brainers, however Reid selected the conservative path each single time. Remember the fact that he made these selections on an evening when the Chiefs produced the very best offensive success price of any group in a single recreation this season to that time. The offense may need sputtered down the stretch, however for many of the evening, Kansas Metropolis was working profitable performs. Did I point out that their quarterback is Patrick Mahomes? A quite simple rule of mine for every time Mahomes is on the sphere could be: If it’s a toss-up, be aggressive. You may reside with issues not at all times figuring out in case you put the ball in Mahomes’s arms.
Reid’s selections didn’t find yourself costing the Chiefs this time. Their protection bought a cease on the finish, they usually bought the victory. However Chiefs seasons with Mahomes are measured by Tremendous Bowls, they usually owe it to themselves to have a constant course of to optimize in-game decision-making. Perhaps this might be a nonissue because the season goes on, but when we’re judging course of as an alternative of outcomes, Reid didn’t do an excellent job on this facet of his teaching in Week 3.
