Orioles vs. Royals 2024 Wild Card Sequence preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and extra

When the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas Metropolis Royals sq. off within the playoffs, it’ll be a matchup of two groups that, in a technique not less than, practically mirror one another. The Orioles, who received the American League East in 2023, returned to the postseason simply two years faraway from dropping 110 video games. Now, the Royals, losers of 106 video games a yr in the past, have made their means again to October for the primary time since profitable the World Sequence in 2015. Sounds fairly acquainted, doesn’t it? The groups will meet in a best-of-three AL Wild Card Sequence, beginning with Tuesday’s Recreation 1, with the winner advancing to face the New York Yankees within the ALDS.

Recreation occasions

Recreation 1: Royals at Orioles, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 4:08 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Recreation 2: Royals at Orioles, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 4:38 p.m. ET, ESPN

Recreation 3:�Royals at Orioles, Thursday, Oct. 3, 4:08 p.m. ET, ESPN (if crucial)

Pitching matchups

Over the course of the yr, it doesn’t matter what outcomes statistics you have a look at, the Royals’ rotation was a top-three unit within the sport. Projections … don’t purchase that. By their strikeout fee (ninth-best), Stuff+ (Seventeenth-best), and eradicating the context of their home-run-suppressing ballpark, Kauffman Stadium, these projections put the entrance 4 of Kansas Metropolis’s rotation because the worst foursome within the playoffs, in a digital tie with the Cleveland Guardians. That appears unsuitable, too. It’s extra doubtless that it is a power for the Royals, even when Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Brady Singer achieved their outcomes by having large arsenals (super-wide within the case of Lugo) and good command as an alternative of standout stuff. That’s nice depth, and Cole Ragans is a stud.

On the opposite facet, the Orioles’ rotation was harm by the lack of Grayson Rodriguez, and those self same projections have their foursome of Corbin Burnes, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer and Albert Suárez as a bottom-third playoff rotation as effectively. However on this collection, the fourth starter received’t matter, and that helps Baltimore. And although Burnes’ whiffs haven’t been on par along with his regular profession charges, he’s been fiddling along with his arsenal not too long ago. In September, he added three inches of drop to his cutter and began incorporating a sweeper. During the last 30 days, he had a 1.20 ERA along with his greatest strikeout fee of the yr, which means he’s most likely again on his enterprise and Ragans’ equal.

Within the bullpen, neither squad charges as a power among the many playoff groups. Including Lucas Erceg to that Kansas Metropolis ’pen was necessary, however there’s solely certainly one of him. Somebody like Carlos Hernandez or Daniel Lynch must step up for the Royals to make a future within the playoffs. Baltimore’s bullpen has a 5.50 ERA during the last thirty days, however that quantity is obscured not less than partially by some poor luck. If Seranthony Domínguez and Cionel Pérez can have an honest stretch of command, the Orioles would possibly nonetheless have the benefit.

It nonetheless makes probably the most sense to provide the Royals the benefit right here, nevertheless it’s not by as a lot because the season-long numbers counsel. — Eno Sarris

Why the Orioles will win

After a somewhat dreary begin to the month, the Orioles have closed September enjoying excellent baseball. They took two of three in opposition to the Yankees, and swept the Minnesota Twins. Catcher Adley Rutschman confirmed some indicators of breaking out of a stoop as effectively. In these best-of-three Wild Card collection, the way you’re enjoying on the time will be essential. Baltimore might be at dwelling. It was in a position to play a largely stress-free weekend, whereas the Royals nonetheless wanted to clinch their spot.

It’s honest to surprise if Baltimore has sufficient pitching to make a sustained postseason run. However in a brief collection, its employees ought to stack up effectively. Burnes has allowed only one run whole over his final three begins, and he’ll get the ball in Recreation 1.

The Orioles’ foray into the postseason was wildly disappointing final yr. They had been swept within the ALDS by the Texas Rangers after an unimaginable season. There isn’t the identical hype or expectations surrounding this group, given a few of its struggles. However it’s largely the identical younger core, they usually now have some expertise to lean on — expertise that the Kansas Metropolis gamers don’t have but. The Royals additionally misplaced 9 of 12 to finish the season. They’re an incredible story. However are they ok to beat the Orioles? The benefit is unquestionably on Baltimore’s facet. — Sam Blum

Why the Royals will win

The Royals needed to struggle till Recreation 160 to clinch a postseason spot. However they’re positioned to be a handful. The beginning rotation, headlined by Ragans and Lugo, is tops amongst playoff groups in ERA, and people two will begin Video games 1 and a couple of, respectively. The bullpen, as soon as a weak point, has been fortified by Erceg, acquired on the commerce deadline from Oakland, and lefty Kris Bubic, who has returned from Tommy John surgical procedure.

The offense struggled in September, nevertheless it nonetheless options Bobby Witt Jr., top-of-the-line baseball gamers on the planet, and Salvador Perez, again within the postseason for the primary time since profitable World Sequence MVP in 2015. It’s additionally doable that first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino (damaged thumb) may return Tuesday, practically two weeks earlier than anticipated. Pasquantino may danger breaking his thumb once more. However such an harm is unlikely to have an effect on the beginning of his 2025 season, giving the membership incentive to be aggressive.

“We’re extra involved with, ‘Can he assist us win a ballgame on Tuesday?’” Royals common supervisor J.J. Picollo mentioned Saturday on Bally Sports activities Kansas Metropolis. “If the reply is sure, he’ll most likely be in that lineup.”

If the Royals can discover some well timed hitting and energy — and that’s no assure — they’ll beat anybody. — Rustin Dodd

Be aware: Examine again Monday for collection predictions fromThe Athletic’s MLB employees.

Orioles participant highlight: Zach Eflin, RHP

Eflin hasn’t been introduced because the Recreation 2 beginning pitcher, nevertheless it’s trending that means. He struggled in his wild-card sport for the Tampa Bay Rays final yr, so this might be one other probability for the 30-year-old right-hander. He’s been stellar in his 9 begins for Baltimore, posting a 2.60 ERA.

If he will get the decision, that Recreation 2 begin might be essential. The Orioles will both be going for the collection win or they’ll want Eflin to shove with their season on the road. He wasn’t nice in his most up-to-date outing in opposition to the Yankees, strolling 5 over 4 2/3 innings. It was solely the second time, nonetheless, that he hadn’t gone not less than six frames. In his lone sport in opposition to the Royals this season, as a member of the Rays, he pitched 5 innings and allowed 5 earned runs. He’ll be relied on to determine their lineup. — Sam Blum

Royals participant highlight: Cole Ragans, LHP

Ragans, 26, has arguably been the perfect starter within the AL not named Tarik Skubal. Whereas his teammate Lugo completed with a greater ERA (3.00 to Ragans’ 3.14), Ragans had a 2.99 FIP with a league-leading 10.8 strikeouts per 9 innings. He additionally owns a 2023 World Sequence ring whereas by no means showing within the postseason. Ragans began final season with the Rangers earlier than being traded to Kansas Metropolis for reliever Aroldis Chapman on June 30, 2023. In 44 begins since, he has a 3.00 ERA with 312 strikeouts in 258 innings.

As soon as a first-round choose in 2016, a slew of elbow accidents paused his profession. However after a breakthrough in Kansas Metropolis and his first All-Star look earlier this summer time, Ragans has an opportunity to introduce himself to a wider viewers in Recreation 1. — Rustin Dodd