The one time a rookie has received NFL MVP was again in 1957. The winner was Jim Brown, arguably the best participant in historical past.
Final season Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud was the uncommon rookie who discovered himself within the race. He trailed off, and it appeared like it could be a very long time earlier than a rookie once more made any waves within the MVP race.
Then Jayden Daniels arrived.
For the second straight season, a rookie is making the case to be within the MVP combine. It is very early within the season, however Daniels is checking each field you’d need for the award. The Washington Commanders are atop the NFC East, as a consequence of a surprisingly environment friendly offense led by their electrical rookie quarterback.
Daniels has been higher than anybody might have realistically anticipated, and the MVP odds at BetMGM modified in a dramatic strategy to replicate his scorching begin.
Jayden Daniels’ stand up NFL MVP odds
After one other massive sport from Daniels in a Week 5 blowout of the Cleveland Browns, he is formally an MVP candidate for those who’re judging by the chances.
As of Monday morning solely 4 gamers have higher odds to win MVP than Daniels, who’s 10-to-1. Listed below are the highest 5:
Patrick Mahomes +300
Josh Allen +600
Lamar Jackson +650
C.J. Stroud +700
Jayden Daniels +1000
That places Daniels forward of all non-quarterbacks, and quite a lot of productive veteran QBs like Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, Jared Goff and Dak Prescott.
And as Daniels has dazzled on the sphere, his MVP odds at BetMGM have seen an enormous shift, even inside the previous couple of weeks:
Opening odds: 200-to-1
Earlier than Week 4: 100-to-1
Earlier than Week 5: 30-to-1
After Week 5: 10-to-1
Whereas it appears exhausting to consider {that a} rookie might preserve an MVP tempo all season, and that the Commanders can preserve successful at a charge which might preserve Daniels shifting up within the MVP dialog, it is not like anybody has a a lot better case at this early stage of the season.
Daniels constructing an MVP case
Mahomes’ Kansas Metropolis Chiefs are 4-0, however statistically he is having a reasonably common begin to the season, particularly by his requirements. Allen accomplished simply 9 of 30 passes in a Week 5 loss. Jackson has been good once more, however Derrick Henry has been a good larger a part of the offense in some latest wins. Stroud has an awesome argument, however Daniels has a greater passer ranking (106.3 to 98.2), completion proportion (77.1% to 68.9%) and yards per try (8.7 to 7.8). And Daniels is off to a historic dashing begin for a quarterback, with 300 yards via 5 video games.
And the Commanders’ offense has gone from one of many 10 worst within the NFL final season to a tempo that rivals a number of the finest offenses in latest NFL historical past. That is with none enormous enhancements to the supporting forged over the offseason, except for including an immediate celebrity at quarterback.
High-four offenses in factors per drive in Weeks 1-5 since at the least 2000:
1. 2020 Packers (MVP Aaron Rodgers)
2. 2000 Rams (Best Present on Turf / MVP Marshall Faulk)
3. 2013 Broncos (MVP Peyton Manning)
4. 2024 Commanders (Jayden Daniels)
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) October 7, 2024
It is very early. It will take a virtually good season for a rookie to win NFL MVP, and Daniels is unlikely to have that. It additionally appears unlikely the Commanders will proceed on what has been a outstanding tempo offensively, particularly once they begin to face a number of the harder opponents on their schedule.
However the MVP odds are telling a narrative. Daniels isn’t just a transparent NFL Offensive Rookie of the Yr favourite, he is within the dialog for the NFL’s prime award too.
