Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how you can wager on Duke vs North Carolina, Colorado at UCF, Baylor and BYU, plus extra!
#22 BYU at Baylor (-3): O/U 45.5
Baylor ought to have received final week however a Sheduer Sanders hail mary and a fumble on the objective line of their OT possession stored the Bears out of the win column in historic trend. On the opposite sideline, BYU was a winner final weekend completely pummeling Kansas State as a house underdog.
BYU is 4-0 ATS this season, so most individuals will play them primarily based on that or the actual fact they’re driving excessive and ranked after beating Kansas State. Nonetheless, ranked highway groups which can be pegged as an underdog towards an unranked dwelling workforce don’t carry out properly, however there’s extra.
I believe BYU is being overvalued too and happening the highway is not any straightforward process. Digging deeper, BYU will change time zones early within the morning for a Large 12 recreation with a 12 ET kickoff in a PT time zone, which hasn’t boded properly for BYU traditionally both (2-12 within the final 14-day video games and misplaced the final 10 matinee video games).
Give Baylor -3 at -120 odds on BetMGM out to -4. I lean towards the Bears within the first quarter to guide if you wish to get in and get out of this recreation.
Decide: Baylor -3 (2u)
*odds courtesy ofÂBetMGM
Colorado at UCF (-14.5): O/U 64.5
The Colorado offensive line hasn’t been that nice this season, we all know that, however they get an excellent matchup at UCF.
The Knights are a below-average workforce on the subject of strain charge, rating 77th, which is why they’ve two sacks on the season. UCF ranks 106th in blitz charge too, so Colorado may preserve Shedeur Sanders clear, which is vital since he ranks the Third-highest PFF grade in all of School Soccer when he has a clear pocket.
Colorado’s protection has improved since final 12 months, however they’ve a difficult process with UCF’s No. 1 speeding assault (375 ypg). Each of those groups may transfer the ball offensively and if it is a shootout, Colorado can dangle in with UCF.
UCF’s protection was torched by TCU for 35 factors and the Horned Frogs QB, Josh Hoover posted 402 passing yards and 4 touchdowns on 35-of-52 passing. Sanders may do the identical.
Give me Colorado +14.5 (-110) all the way down to +14 on BetMGM. For my longshot sprinkles this week, I performed Sanders to throw for 325-plus yards at +200 odds and each groups to attain 10-plus factors within the first quarter at +1300 odds on FanDuel.
Decide: Colorado +14.5 (1u)
*odds courtesy ofÂBetMGM
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North Carolina at Duke (-2.5): O/U 56.0
North Carolina was traditionally dangerous on protection towards James Madison. The Tar Heels allowed a program-record 70 factors within the loss, however there isn’t any time to sulk as a result of a highway rivalry recreation at Duke is on deck.
Duke has not crushed UNC in soccer since 2018 and can be licking its chops right here. UNC can have its third backup quarterback of the season (Jacolby Criswell) and Duke’s protection is giving up 15.3 factors per recreation and 259.3 yards per recreation to some fairly dangerous opponents (Elon, Northwestern, UConn, Center Tennessee).
When these groups met final 12 months, we had a doozy. Duke received 47-45 in 2OT and the quarterback battle was a lot totally different. It is likely to be unpopular to take an Underneath on UNC within the subsequent recreation, however I do not assume Duke’s offense can be that productive in a rivalry matchup and ACC opener.
In line with Motion Community, since 2019, groups that permit 50+ factors of their earlier recreation when listed as the favourite like UNC, have seen the UNDER go 48-24-1 (66.6%) within the following contest. Give me the Underneath 56.0 (-110). I might go all the way down to 54.0 for a full unit.
Decide: Duke vs North Carolina Underneath 56 (1u)
Air Pressure (-4) at Wyoming: O/U 34.0
When these groups met final season, Air Pressure received 34-27, and this season we have now a complete of 33.5 or 34.0!
Whereas each groups are 0-7 ATS, it is secure to say neither has carried out as much as par. Air Pressure’s offense averages 10.3 factors per recreation and 3-1 to the Underneath this 12 months. Wyoming’s offense hasn’t been capable of muster up greater than 17 factors but however the protection has pushed the Over to 3-1 for the Cowboys.
Air Pressure is coming off a bye week, so they need to be ready to restrict Wyoming’s offense. The Falcons are 4-1 within the final 5 seasons following a bye week. Air Pressure had a season-high in speeding yards towards Baylor (193) and compelled three turnovers but mustered up three factors in a 31-3 loss.
The final time they met in Wyoming, the rating was 17-14, one thing we may see once more. There’s a motive for this being the bottom complete of the season and I’m shopping for in for a sweat. Give me the Underneath 34 (-110) in Air Pressure and Wyoming all the way down to 33.0.
Decide: Underneath 34 (1u)
Season File: 15-26 (36.5%) -14.52 models
Final Week: 1-5 (16.6%) -2.86 models
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