A easy take a look at a field rating or a examine of fantasy soccer classes would not at all times inform the entire story of how a participant is performing. Dalton Del Don makes an attempt to establish deceptive numbers which might be price a better look.
Sure … The Numbers Do Lie.
Marvin Harrison Jr.’s 4 landing catches are a lie
Harrison Jr. ranks 59th in receptions and thirty eighth in red-zone targets, however he’s tied for the second-most landing catches within the league. He has fewer receptions than Michael Wilson and has been extremely touchdown-dependent, with 35% of his fantasy scoring coming from TDs. The rookie has erased any early considerations about his pace, however his function has been shaky in an Arizona offense that’s taken a step again this season. Harrison Jr. is considered one of solely two receivers who’ve seen go routes or fades on 30%+ of their targets.
Harrison Jr.’s 42.2% air yards share seems to be good, nevertheless it comes with a 60% catchable goal fee that ranks 74th within the league. He’s among the many league leaders in unrealized air yards whereas recording the second most contested catches. Amongst cross catchers with not less than 25 targets, Harrison Jr. ranks thirty ninth in designed goal fee (5.9%). MHJ isn’t seeing any layup targets and hasn’t caught greater than 5 balls in a recreation but.
Harrison Jr. has averaged 8.4 fantasy factors (0.5 PPR) when not dealing with the worst passing protection within the league (the Rams are permitting 9.0 YPA!), which might make him the WR46 on the 12 months. Furthermore, MHJ will possible be shadowed by Jaire Alexander (who returned to apply Wednesday) this week, and after that, he doesn’t face a protection that at the moment ranks exterior the highest 10 in WR fantasy scoring allowed till Week 13!
Kyler Murray is averaging simply 194.4 passing yards this season, and Arizona’s offense has been a catastrophe exterior of opening drives; Murray has gotten 10.0 YPA with a 6:0 TD:INT ratio (and his lone speeding rating) throughout makes an attempt 1-10 this season, however that drops to a 5.3 YPA with 1:2 TD:INT ratio after the scripted performs (makes an attempt 11+).
Harrison Jr. will make performs, however the early touchdowns (and a matchup versus the Rams) have masked a discouraging function in a disappointing offense. Trey McBride has but to interrupt out this 12 months (extra in him later), and Wilson is rising. Harrison Jr. will settle in as a top-20 fantasy extensive receiver, however his expectations should be lowered (he’s nearer to Brian Thomas Jr. than a wholesome Malik Nabers).
Garrett Wilson’s huge recreation final week was a lie
Wilson simply had his finest recreation of the season final week, racking up 13 catches for 101 yards and a rating. But it surely took 23 targets, which is the fifth most because the stat began being tracked in 1992. Wilson’s route chart was completely horrifying Sunday, and the Jets had been dealing with a Vikings protection that entered permitting by far the very best cross fee and probably the most passing yards within the league. It was Wilson’s first weekly end inside the highest 10 WRs since his rookie season.
New York has scored the identical variety of factors over 5 video games as they did final season, when Zach Wilson had a greater YPA than Aaron Rodgers at the moment has. Garrett Wilson’s common depth of goal (8.1 yards) ranks forty third within the league, and 70% of his targets have come behind the road of scrimmage or inside 9 yards. He ranks first in targets this season with 56 however simply 22 of them have been catchable. His yards per goal (5.2) is the sixth worst within the league.
Whereas it’s unclear how a head teaching change fixes the offense, not less than Nate Hackett was stripped of his play-calling duties. The chemistry between Rodgers and Wilson can also be certain to enhance, however Wilson is also competing for targets with Davante Adams quickly.
Wilson will get a stingy Buffalo cross protection this week adopted by shadow matchups with Joey Porter Jr. and Christian Gonzalez. Like Harrison Jr., Wilson has a disappointing function on an underperforming offense, so he’s unlikely to be price his lofty ADP regardless of final week’s deceptive efficiency.
D’Andre Swift’s two touchdowns are a lie
The window to purchase low in a commerce has slammed shut after top-three RB finishes every of the final two weeks, however Swift’s season-long fantasy manufacturing stays deceptive because of a sluggish begin and unfortunate TD manufacturing. Swift was tackled on the one-yard line (and didn’t later rating on that drive) three separate occasions final week when he additionally had a landing run nullified by an unlawful shift penalty. Swift had seven carries inside the ten final week but noticed Roschon Johnson pilfer two brief scores.
Swift’s utilization has been the identical during the last two weeks, however his manufacturing has skyrocketed even with the unfortunate scoring. A extremely favorable schedule has helped, however Swift has seemed good and extra snug in a brand new Chicago offense. Most significantly, Caleb Williams has proven actual development.
Swift is rotating goal-line alternatives with Johnson, however Khalil Herbert has been placed on ice. Swift is the RB13 in anticipated fantasy factors, simply forward of Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs. Furthermore, the Bears have the second-easiest projected RB schedule over the following 5 video games.
Swift was additionally stopped on the one the second most occasions within the league (six) final 12 months, however his fortune ought to regress on the purpose line. Extra touchdowns are coming, so Swift qualifies as a buy-high in fantasy trades.
Trey McBride’s TE10 rank is a lie
McBride was knocked out of 1 recreation and missed one other resulting from a concussion. He’s seen a 29%+ goal share in three of 4 video games this season and has the simplest remaining tight finish schedule. He’s been charted as open about 3 times as a lot as Sam LaPorta whereas working the same variety of routes. McBride dropped a possible landing in the long run zone final week, and he leads all tight ends in first-read goal fee (25.9%).
McBride has a greater separation fee and the next designed goal fee (13.3% vs. 5.9%) than Marvin Harrison Jr., who’s working a ton of go and fade routes. McBride will profit from Harrison’s restricted route function, and he led all tight ends in first downs per route run final season as a sophomore.
Travis Kelce sans Rashee Rice and the rising Brock Bowers have arguments, however McBride is true there with them as fantasy’s prime tight finish shifting ahead.
