Our brains usually hold what occurred most not too long ago on the entrance of our minds. Recency bias is among the most outstanding logical fallacies that impacts everybody, together with sports activities followers and bettors alike. And there’s no week within the NFL calendar that higher encapsulates this than Week 2.
Making an attempt to steadiness your preseason beliefs with what you noticed in Week 1 is the last word problem of analyzing and previewing the upcoming slate.
Listed here are my ideas on all 16 Week 2 video games, beginning with Thursday Night time Soccer, adopted by the video games I’m passing on, contemplating betting on, and have already guess on. All traces are from FanDuel as of Tuesday night time, until in any other case famous.
Thursday Night time Soccer
Buffalo Payments at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
Buffalo will likely be with out its high defensive again, Taron Johnson, due to an injured forearm. This can be a crimson flag for an already depleted defensive backfield that will likely be attempting to comprise one of the vital explosive offenses within the NFL. The opposite facet of the ball, nonetheless, has considerations of its personal. Buffalo’s potential to manage the ball and clear emphasis on operating have been staples of the Joe Brady offense since he took over as coordinator at midseason final yr. Although they performed from behind for a big portion of their Week 1 sport towards Arizona, the Payments had the fourth-highest rush charge at 56.9 %, which was 11.6 share factors larger than the league common.
The Payments have been additionally capable of generate explosive performs on Sunday, with 14 performs gaining 10 yards or extra. Nonetheless, this says extra concerning the poor high quality of the Arizona protection than the rest. Even when Buffalo is ready to run the ball efficiently towards Miami, it should battle to generate the identical explosive performs towards a greater protection. This Thursday-night sport jogs my memory of their Week 18 matchup final yr; the Payments dominated time of possession and yardage, however their 36 rush makes an attempt made every drive a slog, limiting scoring alternatives.
And in Week 1 this season, Miami’s offense gained 400 whole yards, with Tua Tagovailoa being the one quarterback to surpass 300 passing yards. Even so, the offense was hit-or-miss, and the Dolphins completed twenty first in success charge. Each Miami operating backs, De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, have been listed on the Tuesday harm report. Buffalo’s protection carried out nicely towards the Cardinals’ sturdy rush offense in Week 1 and will maintain up in run protection.
One remaining notice: Miami and Buffalo completed under common in tempo charge over anticipated in Week 1; Buffalo was the league’s slowest. This sport may very well be very sluggish. The market whole on this sport has moved down from the opener of 51 to 49 as of Tuesday. So long as this whole is at the very least 49, I might guess the underneath.
Verdict: Guess underneath 49 or higher.
Go
Los Angeles Chargers (-6) at Carolina Panthers
You didn’t have to look far into the corners of the web to search out individuals who have been curious concerning the Panthers coming into the 2024 season, together with me. I guess on them final week +4, and they might have barely coated if the unfold have been +40. Bryce Younger’s first go of the primary half and second go of the second half have been intercepted. The protection made the weak New Orleans offensive line look elite, and now Carolina will likely be with out star defensive sort out Derrick Brown for the rest of the season.
I rewatched the sport and frolicked digging by means of the superior field rating to attempt to discover some optimism for the Panthers, however I got here up with mainly nothing. The market has doubtless overadjusted in response to the Chargers’ win towards the Raiders and Antonio Pierce’s questionable in-game decision-making, in addition to due to how poorly the Panthers carried out. The look-ahead line was Chargers -3, however until this hits +7, I cannot be backing Carolina once more in Week 2.
Verdict: Go until Carolina will get to +7.
Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
This week, my selection for survivor swimming pools is the Ravens. Final week, I suggested staying away from the Bengals as the most important favourite on the board in the event you have been collaborating in survivor swimming pools. My most well-liked choose of Seattle didn’t make successful the survivor pool simple, however the Seahawks pulled away within the second half and gained 26-20. Baltimore doesn’t have many favorable dwelling matchups this season, so it is a good alternative to make use of the crew, for the reason that Sunday matchup offers the Ravens some further relaxation after their Week 1 loss.
In any other case, this sport doesn’t actually curiosity me from a variety and whole perspective. Nonetheless, I will likely be trying to goal Lamar Jackson underneath rush makes an attempt and yards when props open later this week. He’s prone to open larger than typical resulting from his workload final week, and Baltimore is a great group that understands they will’t have him run 15-plus instances per sport. He skilled soreness and missed follow on Monday.
Verdict: Go; use Baltimore for survivor; goal Lamar Jackson speeding unders.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)
The Rams’ offensive line state of affairs is so dire that they’ve signed three gamers to the roster this week in hopes of solidifying a unit that had no probability to dam the Lions on Sunday night time. The Rams completed with by far the worst go block PFF grade, and third-string left sort out A.J. Arcuri didn’t fare nicely in any respect attempting to dam Aidan Hutchinson.
Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp orchestrated a outstanding second-half comeback, main the Rams to generate offense underneath immense strain. Regardless of Sean McVay’s distinctive offensive teaching, that was not ample. As a consequence of accidents on the offensive line and Puka Nacua being positioned on injured reserve, the Cardinals have now grow to be the favorites.
If the Rams can’t cease the run, run the ball, or go shield, it’s practically unattainable to assist them on this spot until you consider Stafford can magic his method by means of one other weak secondary. The Cardinals’ operating sport was surprisingly efficient in 2023, and contemplating how nicely the Lions ran the ball, the Rams protection is likely to be on the sector for an prolonged interval on this sport.
I’ll look ahead to extra info on the Rams’ offensive line state of affairs earlier than making a choice, however this sport appears to have one of many highest variance ranges, with a variety of outcomes, in Week 2.
Verdict: Go.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (+3)
We appear to undergo the identical routine with Mike Tomlin and the Steelers yearly. It’s fairly predictable now.
Step 1: The Steelers win an unpleasant sport because the underdog and shock individuals.
Step 2: The Steelers grow to be the favourite towards an inferior crew, typically on the street.
Step 3: Bettors rush to again Pittsburgh.
Step 4: The Steelers lose and disappoint as the favourite.
Step 5: Repeat from Step 1.
We’re presently on the third step, particularly for the reason that Broncos offense regarded lifeless in Bo Nix’s debut. If backing Pittsburgh appears too simple, it in all probability is. Nonetheless, you gained’t catch me betting on Denver until the road strikes to 4.
Verdict: Go.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-1.5)
The stoppable drive (Daniel Jones and the Giants offense) meets the movable object (the Commanders protection). The Vikings didn’t blitz as a lot as a typical Brian Flores protection would in Week 1, particularly as soon as Minnesota took an early lead, and the Giants struggled to generate constant offense.
The Giants’ offensive line and receiving corps weren’t main points in Week 1. New York had above-average separation metrics, even when accounting for the tender Minnesota protection in rubbish time. The offensive line ranked 14th in go blocking, per PFF. It’s now as much as Brian Daboll and Jones to handle this.
If the Giants can’t transfer the ball successfully on this matchup, there’s little hope for his or her offense for the remainder of the season. Jones has traditionally carried out nicely towards the Commanders, and each groups’ secondaries seem like among the many worst within the NFL after one week. The market reacted by growing the entire from 42 to 44.5. This may very well be an amazing teaser possibility if the Commanders are favored by 1.5-2.5 factors, particularly when paired with Denver at dwelling with a low whole.
Verdict: Go; look to tease Giants.
Lean
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
Cleveland joins a handful of groups that completely nobody will wish to guess on in Week 2 due to accidents (the Packers) or dismal Week 1 performances (the Giants, Panthers, and Commanders). The great thing about Week 2 is attempting to determine that are overreactions and which aren’t sufficiently big reactions.
Deshaun Watson regarded horrible and fully unsalvageable as a quarterback in Week 1, however the offense could have way more respiratory room towards the Jaguars in Week 2. We all know that Dallas has among the best go rushes within the NFL, and its defensive position fully dominated an injured Cleveland offensive line. Dallas generated fixed strain, leaving Cleveland with no actual constant choices to maneuver the ball. Now, the Browns face a Jaguars defensive position that had the bottom strain charge within the NFL in Week 1, at 14.6 %.
The road for this sport within the look forward was Jacksonville -1, and each of those groups started the season with the very same win whole over/underneath. Now that the road has moved previous the important thing variety of three, you’re paying a premium to again Jacksonville. Whereas it’s true that the Jaguars have been a Travis Etienne Jr. fumble away from going up 24-7, it’s additionally true that Miami gained the underlying field rating and was the deserving winner of the sport based mostly on how the 60 minutes performed out.
Verdict: Lean Jacksonville at -3; go at -3.5.
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (+3.5)
The Titans put collectively two methodical and spectacular landing drives within the first half of their sport with the Bears, totaling 22 mixed performs for 152 yards. Nonetheless, within the second half, Tennessee had seven possessions and 29 performs and gained solely 55 whole yards. The results of these drives was 4 punts (one blocked) and three turnovers, one among which was a comical pick-six from Will Levis trying an underhand flick go. The Titans’ multiple-score lead within the second half doubtless contributed to their heavy reliance on operating the ball. Tennessee ran the ball on 16 out of 24 units on first-and-10.
We simply noticed the sport plan to dismantle the Jets protection from San Francisco on Monday night time; it’s a must to be bodily and run the ball proper at it. Tennessee’s offensive line ranked twenty fifth in run blocking and thirtieth in go blocking in accordance with PFF grades in Week 1.
There are actual limitations to the Jets’ offensive ability group. Though Garrett Wilson and Breece Corridor are high 15 fantasy picks, the remainder of the roster lacks the power to separate. Titans nook L’Jarius Sneed matches up nicely towards Wilson, and the power of the Titans protection is up entrance.
All indicators level to the underneath right here, and the truth that the Jets are on the street on a brief week solely provides to the benefit for a Tennessee protection that deserves credit score for its Week 1 efficiency. The overall has been guess down from 42 to 40.5, and I might guess underneath 41 or higher.
Verdict: Lean underneath 40.5; guess at 41.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-7)
This sport has seen important motion within the betting markets, with Detroit and the over gaining favor because of the intensive accidents Tampa Bay suffered in its Week 1 win towards Washington. Detroit initially opened as a -6 favourite with a complete of 49, however now the Lions are -7, and the entire has elevated to 51.5.
Within the crew’s Week 1 win, Tampa Bay cornerback Zyon McCollum suffered a concussion, cornerback Josh Hayes injured his ankle, and third nook Bryce Corridor was carted off the sector. Security Antoine Winfield Jr. additionally left the sport carrying a strolling boot and is out for Sunday.
Detroit’s offense wasn’t on the sector a lot in its additional time win towards the Rams in Week 1, because the Lions had simply 9 full possessions in regulation. Detroit completed no. 1 in speeding success charge and anticipated factors added per rush. The Lions protection had main points getting off the sector on third down, an space the place Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers have thrived for a yr now.
The Buccaneers offense had its method with the Commanders protection in Week 1 as Mayfield averaged 9.6 yards per try and threw 4 touchdowns with no interceptions. The shock within the sport was how a lot Washington was capable of transfer the ball towards the Buccaneers. Washington completed fourth in sequence success charge, a metric that appears at how typically groups convert a first-and-10 into one other set of downs or a rating. With higher area objective kicking, the Commanders would have scored 20 factors on their first six drives. I totally anticipate each offenses to have their method with the opposite crew’s protection on this sport, however the market has now gotten too excessive on this whole to nonetheless guess the over.
Whereas I guess the over 49 on the open on Monday, it has moved previous the important thing variety of 51 and is not a guess. In reality, if the Buccaneers get to +7.5, I’d guess on Tampa to maintain this sport shut towards a Lions secondary that didn’t present a lot enchancment final week.
Verdict: Lean over, however I wouldn’t guess until you may get 51 or higher.
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-5.5)
Jake Browning began at Arrowhead in December, and the Chiefs closed as 7.5-point favorites in that sport. I consider that the Chiefs have improved offensively since that sport, however the hole between Browning and Joe Burrow have to be bigger than the present market worth signifies.
The weak point of the Bengals’ run protection towards the Patriots in Week 1 is much less related on this matchup. It’s not very best for the Chiefs to go run-heavy offensively as a result of they’ve Patrick Mahomes as their quarterback. The Bengals ought to have extra offensive possessions on this sport to handle the problems they confronted of their opener towards New England.
Regardless of the excessive worth, it’s difficult to assist Cincinnati on this sport. It’s nonetheless unsure if or when the Bengals will overcome their typical September struggles and carry out just like the competent soccer crew we often see in later months. The standing of Tee Higgins is essential to their possibilities of success, and I’ll wait to be taught extra about his situation later within the week earlier than contemplating Cincinnati.
Verdict: Lean Cincinnati +5.5, however look ahead to extra Higgins information.
Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6.5)
The Texans performed fairly slowly and ran the ball much more than many individuals anticipated in Week 1. This method was profitable for them offensively, as they managed the time of possession, ran extra performs, and defeated Indianapolis on the street in a detailed divisional contest. The ultimate rating of the Colts sport suggests this Bears-Texans matchup will likely be offense galore, however the underlying field rating might point out that Houston is extra of an underneath crew.
Chicago’s protection is anticipated to be significantly higher than Indianapolis’s, and the Bears offense is just not practically as explosive because the Colts’ was, with three 50-plus-yard performs on Sunday. The market exhibits a strong transfer towards Houston early within the week, however the one bets I might contemplate right here could be the underneath given Chicago’s offensive efficiency and the Texans’ desire to sluggish the sport down and run the ball.
Verdict: Lean underneath 45.5.
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Minnesota Vikings
The 49ers have shrugged off the Tremendous Bowl hangover, regardless of dealing with just a few obstacles in Week 1: San Francisco was with out Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams wanted an IV within the fourth quarter (and he’d missed coaching camp), and Brandon Aiyuk had restricted enjoying time after a contract dispute in coaching camp. Even so, the 49ers nonetheless managed to dominate, with 24 first downs and 401 whole yards towards the Jets protection, which many contemplate to be among the best. Contemplating how unpredictable calf accidents could be and the way nicely Jordan Mason carried out as McCaffrey’s substitute, I doubt that San Francisco will play McCaffrey in Week 2.
Minnesota’s offensive line carried out admirably in Week 1 towards the Giants’ glorious defensive position, permitting Sam Darnold to be extremely environment friendly. In keeping with Professional Soccer Focus, Darnold completed 14-of-15 for 154 yards when given satisfactory safety. Whereas the 49ers secondary is notably stronger than the Giants’, the abundance of offensive expertise on each groups and lingering uncertainties about their defenses point out that it’s too conservative for the entire rating to be set under 46.
Verdict: Lean over 46 or higher; guess at 45 or higher.
Bets
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Each the Saints and Cowboys had blowout wins in Week 1, and the market mainly didn’t transfer from the look-ahead line of Dallas -6. Are we giving the Saints the identical improve for throttling Carolina at dwelling as Dallas is getting for crushing Cleveland on the street? Personally, I don’t suppose we must always. Dallas deserves the larger improve and needs to be favored by greater than a landing on this sport. We had questions concerning the Cowboys offensive line, and it held up fairly nicely towards a ferocious Browns protection. We now even have a pretty big pattern of Derek Carr’s struggles underneath strain, and Dallas has been among the best flat-track bullies within the NFL for 2 years, particularly at dwelling.
The Saints have been projected to have one of many worst offensive traces within the NFL coming into the season, even coming in at thirty first within the preseason PFF rankings. One optimistic sport towards the Panthers mustn’t shortly change that perception.
Dallas generated the fourth-highest strain charge in Week 1 and fully shut down the Browns offense in consequence. I consider this speaks volumes concerning the present state of the Browns offensive line and Deshaun Watson. Nonetheless, the Cowboys nonetheless demonstrated to me in Week 1 that the market overreacted by downgrading them within the preseason. They’ve but to be upgraded sufficient coming into Week 2.
Verdict: Guess Dallas -6.5 or higher.
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Inexperienced Bay Packers
In August, Sean Koerner of the Motion Community projected the worth towards the unfold for all 117 quarterbacks on NFL rosters. He recognized a 4.5-point hole between Jordan Love (+3.5) and Inexperienced Bay backup Malik Willis (-1). Koerner priced Willis just like Tanner McKee, Josh Johnson, and Desmond Ridder, and he had Love ranked because the Fifteenth-best quarterback within the NFL.
Earlier than Week 1, the look-ahead line for this sport was Inexperienced Bay -4.5, and now the Colts are 3.5-point favorites. Is the downgrade from Like to Willis actually price eight factors? Indianapolis ran an especially boom-or-bust offense in Week 1, with Anthony Richardson finishing 9 passes for 212 yards. His common depth of goal was an absurd 16.4 yards, 4 yards larger than each different NFL quarterback in Week 1. I’m skeptical about how sustainable that’s, as defenses will do every part they will to drive Richardson and the Colts to be extra methodical.
The Colts’ larger concern was their run protection. Solely three groups allowed a better speeding success charge than the Colts in Week 1. Getting into the season, the Colts protection was anticipated to be sturdy, however the group was ranked twenty fifth in run cease win charge towards Houston, per ESPN. Inexperienced Bay might decelerate and lean on the bottom sport to successfully shield Willis and hold the house sport shut.
It’s laborious to glean a lot from the defensive knowledge from Inexperienced Bay’s loss to Philadelphia in Brazil, contemplating the poor high quality of the sector and the slippery circumstances, which doubtless hindered the go rush, leading to extra explosive performs for each offenses.
I anticipate that the Colts will likely be a preferred selection in survivor swimming pools and towards the unfold. Nonetheless, it’s vital to keep in mind that only a week in the past, the general public was hesitant to guess on the Colts due to uncertainties surrounding Richardson. Whereas his spotlight throws have been spectacular, one of the best method to this sport is to reap the benefits of the numerous market overadjustment from Like to Willis. It’s Inexperienced Bay for me.
Verdict: Guess Inexperienced Bay +3.5 or higher.
Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (+3.5)
New England carried out higher than anticipated in each trenches towards Cincinnati and averted making expensive errors. The Patriots did require help from the Bengals (within the type of drops and turnovers) to safe the win, however Cincinnati’s offense by no means appeared comfy all through the sport, which is a testomony to Jerod Mayo’s protection.
The response to the Patriots sport has been primarily targeted on the Bengals and whether or not it’s time to panic in Cincinnati. Nonetheless, I wish to pose a unique query. What if the Patriots are literally higher than we anticipated? The protection acquired distinctive play from nook Christian Gonzalez towards Ja’Marr Chase, and the defensive position successfully shut down Cincinnati’s run sport.
The Patriots additionally ran the ball successfully and restricted Cincinnati to solely eight possessions. Contemplating the regarding efficiency of the Seattle offensive line in Week 1, I consider that New England is barely undervalued at dwelling as an underdog by greater than a area objective. Regardless of my excessive regard for Seattle, I can’t justify taking the Seahawks above three with such a low whole of 37.5.
Verdict: Guess New England +3.5; lean at +3.
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
There’s no crew that I’ve personally downgraded extra from Week 1 to Week 2 than the Atlanta Falcons. It’s doable that I’m overreacting to 1 unhealthy sport from a rusty Kirk Cousins, however it’s not simply the quarterback. In Week 1, Atlanta’s offensive line had the second-worst go block grade, per PFF. The Falcons go rush was unable to generate strain even after the addition of Matthew Judon (they completed thirtieth in go rush grade, in accordance with PFF). The secondary wasn’t actually examined by Justin Fields and the Steelers offense, and now the Falcons journey on the street to face the Eagles in a max home-field benefit spot on Monday Night time Soccer.
Cousins regarded motionless within the pocket and had three turnover-worthy performs in that sport. Amongst quarterbacks, solely Jalen Hurts, Bryce Younger, and Will Levis had worse PFF grades than Cousins. I do know that Hurts had 4 turnover-worthy performs and a few actually poor decision-making, however the enhancements the Eagles made towards the blitz give me some actual optimism for the offense going ahead.
The Eagles’ offensive expertise benefit is so overwhelming that they will rating 30-plus factors even when Hurts is actively sabotaging the offense. If he cleans up his play, the Eagles offense will likely be a top-five unit. Does anybody suppose the Falcons can sustain on the street in prime time with Cousins on this state? I don’t. Name me sq.; I’m laying it with Philadelphia.
Verdict: Guess Philadelphia -6.5 or higher.
Bets from this text made for Week 2:
Eagles -6.5 (-110) vs. Falcons
Cowboys -6.5 (-110) vs. Saints
Packers +3.5 (-110) vs. Colts
Patriots +3.5 (-110) vs. Seahawks
Payments/Dolphins Underneath 49 (-110)
