The Finest NFL Bets for Week 5

Passing within the Nationwide Soccer League has reached a wierd inflection level by way of 4 weeks of the common season.

The leaguewide cross completion charge has by no means been greater, but it surely hasn’t translated to extra passing success. In truth, the other has occurred. The NFL is averaging the fewest passing yards per recreation since 2003. Longer drives, extra discipline objectives, and decrease cross effectivity all helped hold video games tighter and helped underdogs cowl 11 out of 16 video games in Week 4. It’s a vastly completely different NFL than even a number of years in the past, and that needs to be thought-about when betting every week.

Week 5 brings in regards to the first 4 bye weeks of the season because the Eagles, Lions, Chargers, and Titans have the week off.

Listed below are my ideas on all 14 Week 5 video games, beginning with Thursday Evening Soccer. I’ll let you recognize which video games I’m passing on, contemplating betting on, and have already wager on. All traces are from FanDuel as of Wednesday evening, until in any other case famous.

Thursday Evening Soccer

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)

Atlanta received on Sunday thanks to 2 non-offensive touchdowns after the Saints muffed a punt and threw a deflected pick-six. The Falcons additionally held up with a goal-line stand from inside their very own 7-yard line within the fourth quarter. The betting markets aren’t actually certain what to do with the NFC South, because the Falcons, Bucs, and Saints are all priced comparably to win the division by yr’s finish.

This matchup will go a good distance towards deciding the division, however this particular recreation is troublesome to undertaking given the damage state of affairs for the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay utterly nerfed the Eagles offense on Sunday and can pose a major take a look at for Kirk Cousins on Thursday as Todd Bowles brings fixed stress and checks an Atlanta offensive line that would once more be down a number of starters.

Baker Mayfield dominated the Eagles protection on Sunday with quick-release passes over the center of the sphere, and the dearth of an Atlanta cross rush ought to assist the Buccaneers transfer the ball offensively. The Falcons rank twenty eighth in PFF cross rush grades and twenty ninth in cross rush win charge.

These are two groups that I’m usually much less assured in than the betting markets. That is very true for Atlanta, which may simply be 0-4 if not for some late-game heroics on remaining drives from Cousins and kicker Younghoe Koo. I preferred Tampa Bay when the market opened this at +3, however now at +1.5, I’ll tease Tampa Bay and anticipate one other shut thriller.

Verdict:Tease Tampa Bay as much as +7.5, cross in any other case.

Sunday Matchups

New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) in London

Welcome again, London soccer followers! As if our Sundays weren’t lengthy sufficient already, we now have one other window to look at our hottest sport. Outdoors of a dominant dwelling displaying on a brief week towards a shorthanded New England workforce, the Jets offense hasn’t been very spectacular this season.

The offensive line’s incapability to constantly shield Aaron Rodgers stood out within the loss to Denver, and the dearth of depth in receiving choices behind Garrett Wilson makes this offense a bit extra restricted than most anticipated previous to the season. Wilson himself has not lived as much as the preseason expectations both.

Minnesota has by far one of the best protection within the NFL by DVOA. That ought to function a sell-high indicator, as not even probably the most bullish Vikings fan or prognosticator would have projected it as even a top-five unit. The Vikings have received and coated each week, and that, to me, serves as a sign we could also be on the high of the market on Minnesota’s vary this season. I received’t pay to search out out both means.

Verdict:Go.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

Chicago’s offense had its finest efficiency of the season towards the Rams protection, ending the week tenth amongst all groups in anticipated factors added per drive. Nonetheless, given the standard of the protection they confronted—the Rams are thirty first in DVOA defensively—the truth that the Bears managed solely 4.9 yards per play isn’t too encouraging as they head right into a recreation they need to (on paper) win towards Carolina on Sunday.

The Bears secured the win and coated the unfold by capitalizing on a Rams fumble and turning it into a fast landing. Nonetheless, the Rams had extra yards and first downs. This victory shouldn’t enhance your opinion of the Bears, particularly since they’re favored by greater than a discipline purpose towards a all of the sudden competent Panthers offense.

The Panthers offense has remodeled from one of many worst within the league within the first two weeks to a solidly competent unit. The offensive line ranks second in cross blocking, in line with Professional Soccer Focus, and the offense has averaged 6.2 and 5.4 yards per play within the two video games since Andy Dalton changed Bryce Younger. Though Adam Thielen was out final week on account of damage, Carolina was capable of successfully transfer the ball by way of the air. Whereas Chicago holds a major defensive benefit within the matchup, I’m extra snug betting that the underdog with the higher offense will catch greater than a discipline purpose.

Verdict:Guess Carolina +3.5 or higher.

Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-3)

Attempting to purchase low and promote excessive is without doubt one of the most essential ideas of being a profitable NFL bettor, and this recreation presents a textbook alternative to do exactly that. Nobody desires to wager on Cleveland, with its struggling offense and beleaguered quarterback Deshaun Watson, towards probably the most talked-about workforce of the primary 4 weeks. The Browns at the moment rank thirtieth in EPA per dropback, and the Washington offense is first in the identical metric. It’s very simple to see why Washington is favored to win this match.

Nonetheless, I’d prefer to current a counterpoint. The Commanders have confronted principally weak and passive defenses in Jayden Daniels’s profession to date. Matchups towards the Bengals and Cardinals—who don’t apply a lot stress and struggled to defend beneath routes—have made it simpler for Daniels to regulate to the NFL. This isn’t to decrease his spectacular efficiency within the first 4 video games, however the Browns, led by defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, will current a distinct problem.

The Browns protection continues to be a top-eight unit by way of success charge, rating within the high three in each run cease win charge and cross rush win charge. In distinction, Washington’s protection is the worst within the NFL in EPA per drive, by a major margin.

Verdict:Guess Cleveland +3 or higher.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-1.5)

There are 14 NFL video games in Week 5. You don’t must wager on each one in all them.

It’s honest to query whether or not a recreation that includes two groups with defenses ranked within the backside 10 ought to have a complete as little as 36.5. Nonetheless, there are many higher video games to wager on this week. In keeping with market-derived energy rankings, the Patriots and Dolphins are at the moment the 2 worst groups within the NFL getting into Week 5.

Verdict:Go.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)

Most individuals taking a look at this Colts-Jaguars matchup could marvel why 0-4 Jacksonville is favored over 2-2 Indianapolis. The market acknowledges that Jacksonville has performed significantly higher than its file signifies and is just a few goal-line conversions away from being 2-2 and even 3-1. The Colts haven’t received in Jacksonville since 2014, and star operating again Jonathan Taylor is coping with a light excessive ankle sprain. Moreover, Anthony Richardson didn’t end final week’s recreation on account of a hip pointer, creating uncertainty for the Colts offense early within the week.

Regardless of this uncertainty, the return of Colts receiver Josh Downs gives a major increase, given his means so as to add yards after the catch. The Colts have been throwing the ball down the sphere steadily within the first 4 weeks, however Downs provides one other dimension to the passing offense, particularly when going through a Jaguars protection that normally performs a number of man protection and ranks thirty first in tackling, per PFF grades. If Richardson is again beginning, the Colts ought to be capable of proceed hitting explosive performs.

The vibes out of Jacksonville couldn’t be worse, both. Doug Pederson’s assertion on Wednesday, “No, I’ve not misplaced the locker room,” doesn’t encourage confidence. Nonetheless, I totally anticipate the Jaguars to offer their full effort in a divisional dwelling recreation. If the offense can’t transfer the ball constantly towards the Gus Bradley protection, it might by no means occur for them.

One essential word: Each Jacksonville and Indianapolis rank within the high 4 leaguewide in tempo (seconds per snap). With the mix of that and their bottom-10 defenses, the whole for this recreation appears a bit low to me.

Verdict:Lean over 46.5.

Buffalo Payments at Houston Texans (+1.5)

Nico Collins is at the moment having a breakout season and is rising as one of many high 5 receivers within the sport. Nonetheless, one thing appears off in regards to the Texans, regardless of their 3-1 file. The offense hasn’t been constant all through the season. In Week 1, the run recreation excelled towards Indianapolis; Joe Mixon ran 30 occasions for 159 yards. Nonetheless, since halftime of the Chicago recreation in Week 2, Houston’s offense has stagnated. It scored solely three factors towards the Bears within the second half and managed simply seven complete in Minnesota in Week 3.

Simply when it appeared like Houston had resolved its offensive points in its sturdy first half towards Jacksonville final week, it struggled within the second half, with 5 consecutive punts. Though C.J. Stroud led a game-winning drive within the remaining minutes for a key divisional victory, the Texans rank twenty third in offensive success charge and 14th in defensive success charge by way of the primary 4 video games, making them common.

The absence of Mixon (he’s been out for 2 weeks with an ankle damage) within the run recreation has been an element, in addition to the dearth of sharpness within the offensive line and the uncertainty surrounding Laremy Tunsil’s well being. The offense can be going through extra Cowl 2 defenses this yr than final season, which could possibly be contributing to its struggles. Even Jacksonville, identified for its aggressive man-to-man protection, used zone protection closely on Sunday.

The Texans lead the league within the share of offensive performs towards Cowl 2 defenses, a major enhance from their rating of twenty seventh final yr. Buffalo excels in enjoying Cowl 2 protection, its most well-liked scheme for a number of seasons. The Payments struggled towards the Baltimore run recreation and had difficulties masking the center of the sphere, which performs to Houston’s benefit. Nonetheless, Buffalo is at the moment working at a better degree on each offense and protection, making it a robust alternative towards Houston on this matchup.

Verdict:Guess Payments moneyline (-108).

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)

There’s a obtrusive problem going through Cincinnati forward of this key divisional matchup with the Ravens: How will the Bengals cease the Ravens’ run recreation? Predicting NFL video games is nearly by no means so simple as “Good run offense runs throughout dangerous run protection,” however the Bengals’ defensive position has been abysmal towards the run all season. It ranks thirty second in dashing success charge allowed and twenty sixth in adjusted defensive position yards. Baltimore is fourth in dashing success charge offensively. The Ravens simply confirmed at dwelling on Sunday evening towards the Payments what their offense can do to groups who’re a bit gentle up entrance and susceptible within the center.

The market briefly touched Ravens -3, and it was purchased again by Cincinnati cash instantly. The whole was steamed up early within the week and has additionally confronted resistance. The whole was as excessive as 50.5 and has been wager right down to 48.

Whereas many of the NFL is seeing a dip in scoring and offensive effectivity, Cincinnati’s offense is firing on all cylinders, and Joe Burrow’s means to throw on this secondary ought to hold the Bengals within the recreation. Cincinnati ranks second, behind solely Washington, in EPA per drive, and the offense will be capable of rating sufficient to maintain this recreation in true coin-flip territory.

Verdict: Tease Bengals as much as +8.5; wager Cincinnati workforce complete over 23.5 (-122 at DraftKings).

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Does anybody actually need lay factors with a Bo Nix passing offense that managed to build up solely 60 passing yards within the recreation towards the Jets on Sunday? Whereas the Broncos received’t face the Jets on the street in a rainstorm each week, it’s value noting that the Denver offense at the moment ranks thirty first in complete performs of 10-plus yards after 4 weeks. With their reluctance to throw the ball, it’s unclear how they plan to maneuver it extra effectively sooner or later.

Nix had three turnover-worthy performs in Week 1, however he has had simply two previously three weeks mixed. He’s the last word low-risk, low-reward quarterback, which could possibly be favorable for these betting on the underneath.

The Denver protection has delivered spectacular performances in consecutive video games, shutting down each the Buccaneers and the Jets. Because of this, the Broncos rank within the high 5 defensively by DVOA. Patrick Surtain II anchors a protection unit that ranks within the high 5 within the league. Moreover, it’s evident that the Raiders have struggled to run the ball successfully this season.

The Raiders’ dashing success charge sits at 31 %, which is useless final within the NFL and a full 4.7 share factors worse than the second-worst workforce (the Chargers). In the event that they saved up this tempo for a complete season, they might have the worst rush offense by success charge because the 2002 Texans. Given the challenges each groups face in constantly scoring, I consider that betting on the underneath is the best choice for this recreation.

Verdict:Guess underneath 36 or higher.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)

The Cardinals have confronted one of many hardest schedules of opposing offenses attainable by way of 4 weeks, and it doesn’t get any simpler for them in Week 5. The 49ers offense is completely different this season in the way it produces, but it’s nonetheless very environment friendly. The Niners have shifted away from relying closely on yards after the catch, and Brock Purdy is enjoying a number of the finest soccer of his younger profession.

The query is whether or not Arizona could make any stops. The 49ers scored 35 and 45 factors of their two conferences with this protection final yr, and there’s not a lot in these matchups to counsel Arizona can do something to cease Kyle Shanahan given the expertise hole.

San Francisco had 7.5 yards per play within the second assembly, but it was a considerably aggressive recreation due to the success Arizona’s offense had on the bottom. The Niners performed a particularly restricted New England final week, however I’m nonetheless skeptical of the Niners’ run protection with out Javon Hargrave within the center.

Arizona can transfer the ball on the bottom and rating by way of the air in rubbish time if wanted to assist push the sport complete into the 50s.

Verdict:Guess over 49.5.

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

The Giants secondary has successfully stopped just one passing assault to date, which was Cleveland in Week 3. The Cowboys, Commanders, and Vikings had no points passing the ball all around the discipline towards New York. The Giants are ranked twenty first in defensive DVOA and lack the personnel to decelerate the Seattle passing assault, which seems improved and rejuvenated underneath first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.

The uncertainty on this matchup lies on the opposite aspect of the ball. Giants rookie star wideout Malik Nabers stays in concussion protocol as of Wednesday, however his possibilities of clearing it stay unsure as of Wednesday. After a mini-bye following the Thursday evening dwelling loss to Dallas (by which their protection was uncovered), the Seahawks are on a brief week. Till we now have extra readability on Seattle’s defensive position and secondary accidents, I’d keep away from this recreation.

Verdict:Go.

Inexperienced Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams (+3)

It took a while for Jordan Like to shake off the rust in his first recreation again from an MCL sprain. He made some errors with turnovers on Sunday, and the Inexperienced Bay particular groups value the group factors on a number of drives. Regardless of these points, the Packers offense constantly moved the ball towards Brian Flores’s protection. The Packers had 465 complete yards, averaged 6.3 yards per play, and hit many explosive performs. Inexperienced Bay performed with Malik Willis for 2 weeks and nonetheless leads the league in explosive performs, with 40. Though the workforce misplaced Christian Watson to an damage, the receiving depth stays one of many Packers’ strengths. If Dontayvion Wicks sees an elevated function, the offense ought to have as a lot upside as every other unit within the NFL.

Essentially the most underrated unit within the league, in line with the market, would possibly nonetheless be the Rams offense. A fast look on the depth chart would possibly lead one to put in writing it off on account of accidents to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. When you think about the offensive line accidents and reshuffling, it’s much more exceptional that the Rams confronted a great protection in Chicago and posted a top-five success charge amongst all groups in Week 4.

On our podcast The Hook, my colleague Raheem Palmer and I mentioned why he’s thinking about backing Inexperienced Bay’s season-long upside now that Love has returned and the offense is able to prepare dinner. I believe there will likely be loads to put in writing in regards to the Packers in future columns, however backing them on this spot as a street favourite towards the Rams doesn’t make sense given the Rams’ continued offensive success.

Verdict: Lean over 48.5.

Sunday Evening Soccer

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)

The Cowboys are a basic instance of why defensive efficiency yr over yr isn’t almost as constant and predictable as offensive efficiency. Dallas ranks twenty seventh in defensive DVOA, twenty first towards the cross, and final towards the run. The Giants couldn’t convert yards into factors of their Week 4 loss, however they did transfer the ball all through the sport. Dallas’s protection is constructed round its playmaking stars, and with Daron Bland, Micah Parsons, and DeMarcus Lawrence probably out, it’s unclear the place the playmaking will come from.

The protection’s stress charge and PFF cross rush grades have already taken a step again this season and will fall even additional with out Lawrence and Parsons.

The considerations for Dallas don’t finish there. The offense isn’t working almost as effectively because it did final season. Dallas is nineteenth in offensive success charge, and that is the spot the place Mike Tomlin normally will get Pittsburgh overrated and motivated after a loss, following a horrible first half in Indianapolis. If I needed to wager a aspect right here, I’d lean towards Pittsburgh at dwelling, given the way it may probably dominate the trenches on this recreation.

Verdict:Lean Pittsburgh -1.5.

Monday Evening Soccer

New Orleans Saints at Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-5.5)

The Chiefs’ second-half unders misplaced within the first two weeks of the 2024 season, however they give the impression of being to be again for the foreseeable future after Kansas Metropolis held each the Falcons and Chargers to 3 complete factors within the second half. The underneath completed 18-3 within the second half in Chiefs video games final season; their protection allowed 6.8 second-half factors per recreation earlier than the Tremendous Bowl towards San Francisco, when it allowed 12 (together with additional time).

The Steve Spagnuolo protection has conceded 5.5 factors per recreation within the second half of the primary 4 video games of the season. Have the Chiefs discovered success within the purple zone inefficiencies of each the Falcons and the Chargers? Certainly. However the protection has improved towards the run this season relative to previous years, and that’s a serious key for slowing down New Orleans’s early-down dashing assault.

Now that Kansas Metropolis doesn’t have Rashee Rice or Isiah Pacheco, the constraints of the offensive unit have turn out to be more and more clear. And you would argue that the present model of the Chiefs is much more offensively restricted than it was through the second half of the 2023 season, when many wrote them off earlier than they finally received the Tremendous Bowl. The Saints rank eleventh in PFF cross rush grade and seventh in PFF protection grade. The Saints are a high 10 protection for me.

Verdict:Guess New Orleans +5.5, and wager second half underneath 20.5.

Bets from this text made for Week 5:

Cardinals-49ers over 49.5 (-110)
Raiders-Broncos underneath 36 (-110)
Panthers +4.5 vs. Bears (-115)
Browns +3.5 vs. Commanders (-115 at DraftKings)
Payments moneyline vs. Texans (-108)
Saints +5.5 vs. Chiefs (-110)
Chiefs-Saints second half underneath 20.5 (-110)