Simply because each NFL crew now has two regular-season information factors as a substitute of 1 doesn’t imply it’s not nonetheless the height of overreaction season within the betting markets. Underdogs had a dominant Week 2 available in the market, with 11 underdogs masking the unfold and eight profitable outright. A lot of what we noticed in Week 1—Cowboys and 49ers dominance plus Browns and Falcons disasters—proved to not be consultant at all the Week 2 performances.
Earlier than you contemplate writing off a crew that’s 0-2, it’s necessary to notice that traditionally, these groups are inclined to carry out nicely in Week 3. In keeping with Motion Community’s BetLabs database, since 2010, 0-2 groups are 53-32-2 (62.4 %) in opposition to the unfold in Week 3 when dealing with a crew that has already received a sport.
Listed below are my ideas on all 16 Week 2 video games, beginning with Thursday Evening Soccer. I’ll let you understand which video games I’m passing on, contemplating betting on, and have already guess on. All traces are from FanDuel as of Tuesday night time, until in any other case famous.
Thursday Evening Soccer
New England Patriots at New York Jets (-6.5)
New England has a rookie head coach in his first Thursday night time, short-week street sport. Mixed with the Patriots’ harm pileup, this has the makings of a tough spot for them. All 5 Patriots offensive linemen had been on the Tuesday harm report, and beginning left sort out Vederian Lowe and left guard Sidy Sow didn’t take part in apply in any respect. Linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley has additionally been dominated out for the remainder of the season, and half of the Patriots’ secondary was restricted in apply.
It’s one other prime-time house opener for the Jets (although hopefully Aaron Rodgers can play multiple sequence this time), and New York’s offense did appear to click on into gear within the second half of the comeback win in opposition to the Titans on Sunday.
The Jets protection has been simply common in opposition to the run, which might counsel the Patriots have a path to operating a ball-control, grind-it-out offensive sport. I believe the below will likely be a preferred wager for a lot of, however the whole is a bit decrease than it must be. Not sufficient for me to guess on it, although, so I’ll be passing on the primary sport in Week 3.
Verdict:Go.
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
My first response to this line was: “Wait, how many factors is the Cleveland offense laying?” Betting on the Browns offense to win with margin feels tough until the protection is chipping in with turnovers or factors. The Browns managed to attain 16 offensive factors within the win at Jacksonville, and the offense was legitimately good within the first half, with 13 factors on three drives of 40-plus yards. The second half appeared much more like Week 1, although. Solely Denver, Carolina, and Chicago are producing fewer yards per drive by way of two weeks. The Browns are twenty ninth in offensive EPA per drive as nicely.
Hopefully the Giants could have a wholesome kicker on the roster this week. It’s humorous; they went from thirty second in offense in Week 1 by EPA per drive to 3rd in Week 2. That’s actually a commentary on the Commanders protection, not some newfound success for Daniel Jones and Brian Daboll.
One concern for Cleveland must be that the elite protection has appeared something however by way of two weeks. Cleveland’s protection is center of the street in effectivity metrics and twenty first in strain charge to date. It will be Giants or nothing for me, given Cleveland’s offensive points, however there are higher video games to guess on than this one.
Verdict:Lean Giants +6 or higher.
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
It’s a tricky state of affairs for the Eagles, who should journey to New Orleans on a brief week after their collapse in opposition to the Falcons on Monday night time. They’ll probably be with out A.J. Brown for the second consecutive week, and it was evident how a lot they missed his offensive explosiveness final week. Jalen Hurts struggled to finish passes over 20 yards and averaged solely 6.1 yards per try. They relied closely on the run sport, quick passes, and Hurts’s scrambles to maneuver the ball. Philadelphia discovered success with lengthy, methodical drives, which is able to probably be the sport plan in Week 3.
There are additionally considerations with the Eagles protection. Atlanta scored on 5 of its closing six full offensive possessions, and the Eagles’ defensive position struggled to cease the run or generate a move rush. The Vic Fangio scheme received’t be efficient if the defensive position can’t disrupt opposing offenses. Philadelphia ranks thirtieth in EPA per drive allowed by way of two weeks, and the market has misplaced confidence within the Eagles.
The Eagles had been initially favored by 2.5 factors on the street, however that has shifted, and New Orleans is now practically a field-goal favourite. The time to guess on New Orleans for Week 3 has probably handed.
Verdict:Go.
Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)
Every time the market has tried to maneuver again to Houston -3 flat, it takes Minnesota cash. There’s actual market respect for the Vikings, who had been projected to complete final within the NFC North earlier than this season and are actually catching lower than a subject aim in opposition to one of many prime contenders within the AFC.
The Texans’ glorious offensive efficiency in opposition to the Colts doesn’t look practically as spectacular now that we’ve seen the Colts protection look pedestrian in Week 2. Now, C.J. Stroud and the Texans go on the street to face among the best defensive coordinators in soccer. Brian Flores turned water into wine final season and remodeled Minnesota’s protection from one of many league’s worst items right into a league-average unit. Now, with extra expertise on the defensive aspect of the ball, I’m shopping for the upside for the Vikings in yr two of the Flores scheme.
He successfully rattled Brock Purdy with designed blitzes in Week 2 and compelled the 49ers’ juggernaut offense into simply a median offensive efficiency. The Texans are nonetheless too run reliant on early downs, and the second-half struggles in opposition to the Bears at house on Sunday night time confirmed that this offense continues to be a tier beneath the elite for me. I’m betting in opposition to the Houston offense dealing with Flores on Sunday.
Verdict:Guess Texans crew whole below 23.5 (+100).
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
As a bettor of the NFL, every thing I imagine in ought to lead me to guess on the Denver Broncos this Sunday. It’s a matchup between the 0-2 crew and the 2-0 crew: Denver is the underdog who has been written off because of underperformance, whereas the Buccaneers have exceeded preseason expectations and are coming off of a giant street win in Detroit. One of many key ideas of sports activities betting is to purchase low and promote excessive, and proper now, there are few groups decrease than Denver and few greater than Tampa Bay.
Though the Buccaneers protection has some weaknesses, I’ve doubts about Bo Nix’s readiness to begin NFL video games, as his performances have been third-worst solely behind Bryce Younger and Caleb Williams up so far within the season. Whereas sharp bettors might constantly guess on Denver at +7, I would wish greater than seven factors to again the Broncos on this state of affairs.
Tampa Bay’s offense continues to be struggling to ascertain a operating sport, and its protection is having bother stopping the run, which may assist stage the taking part in subject contemplating its vital benefit within the passing sport.
Verdict:Lean Broncos at +7.
Inexperienced Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Malik Willis proved he may very well be an efficient stopgap sport supervisor in an elite offensive scheme for one week, particularly when dealing with a struggling Indianapolis run protection. Matt LaFleur turned up the creativity and ran throughout Gus Bradley and the Colts at house. Making an attempt to copy that efficiency on the street in opposition to a a lot harder Tennessee defensive entrance appears rather more tough.
I perceive that is the Malik Willis revenge sport, however the Packers offense had nearly every thing go proper final week and nonetheless managed simply 16 whole factors. You possibly can count on them to run the ball as a lot as potential to guard Willis. Inexperienced Bay ran the ball practically 10 % greater than each different crew within the NFL in Week 2, and LaFleur’s offense was a full second slower than each different offense. The Packers have typically been a slower-paced crew throughout his tenure, however final week, they took that to an entire new stage. The Titans are additionally among the many slower groups in first-half tempo.
Will Levis has proven by way of two weeks that it’s ingrained in his DNA to be careless with the soccer. But when we had been ever going to see Levis attempt to rein in his wild makes an attempt at hero ball, this could be the week, given how publicly crucial of Levis head coach Brian Callahan has been.
All of this factors towards a grinder of a sport that’s fairly low-scoring. Even when the Titans can kind out their punt safety unit, this whole continues to be too excessive at 36.5 with Willis and Levis.
Verdict:Guess below 36.5 factors (-110), however wait to see if it ticks again to 37 first.
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
We have now a traditional “stoppable pressure meets movable object” matchup because the Bears’ anemic offense takes on the sieve of the Colts protection in Indianapolis. The Colts will likely be with out star defensive sort out DeForest Buckner, as he was positioned on injured reserve, and the entrance seven of the Indianapolis protection has been known as into query after Inexperienced Bay ran the ball 53 occasions for 261 yards in Week 2.
Chicago has been one of many three worst offenses, subsequent to Carolina and Denver, in lots of key metrics, similar to EPA per drive and yards per drive. The Bears have averaged 2.2 adjusted line yards on offense, which means their offensive line has generated no push in any respect within the run sport. That’s the worst within the NFL, and the second worst is the Dolphins, at 2.9.
It is a traditional all-in motivation spot for the 0-2 crew at house. Either side entered the common season with comparable preseason win totals, however the Colts offense is definitely the extra constant and explosive unit on this sport. Indianapolis has barely been on the sphere offensively from a performs and time-of-possession standpoint, however the offensive line metrics look elite, and the Colts are first in EPA per play on first down. That intrigues me sufficient to guess them at house at this worth.
Verdict:Guess Colts moneyline (-122).
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)
Given the conservative nature of those two coaches, the dearth of explosiveness from the 2 offenses, and the harm to Justin Herbert, this sport will in all probability resemble soccer within the Sixties greater than soccer within the 2020s. The Chargers have the most effective EPA defensive metrics within the NFL by far, however they haven’t confronted an offense that may constantly problem them. That may nonetheless be true after Week 3. Whereas Herbert doesn’t appear to be liable to lacking Sunday’s sport, he did get rolled up on and walked with a limp following the win in opposition to Carolina.
Via two weeks, the Chargers rank third in proportion of rushes, whereas the Steelers rank second. The Steelers aren’t using the center of the sphere with Justin Fields and aren’t producing many explosive performs. It could sound ridiculous to guess the below on a complete this low, however these two offenses are among the many 12 with 5 or fewer performs of 20-plus yards by way of two weeks.
I’d guess the below at 35.5 or higher.
Verdict:Guess below 35.5 (-110).
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)
One other week, one other market overreaction to a quarterback harm. Similar to the market moved too far in opposition to Willis and the Packers, it additionally initially moved too far in opposition to Miami. Seattle was favored by as a lot as 6.5 factors early within the week however has since been guess all the way down to the present -4.5 line.
My major concern concerning the Dolphins in relation to the market is how weak their protection has appeared within the first two weeks. Jalen Ramsey and Jordan Poyer struggled within the secondary in opposition to the Payments, and the Miami defensive position was dominated within the trenches. After two weeks, Miami ranks second to final in offensive line yards and twentieth in defensive adjusted line yards. The Dolphins received’t be capable to benefit from Seattle’s weak point alongside the offensive line, and a trailing sport script on the street is just not the best state of affairs to belief Skylar Thompson. If the road is at six or higher, I’ll reluctantly guess on Miami. In any other case, I’ll move and hope Seattle goes 3-0 to proceed its quest for the division title and the playoffs.
Verdict:Go.
Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)
The betting market shortly shifted from Panthers +7 to Panthers +5.5 as soon as Carolina benched Bryce Younger in favor of Andy Dalton. The whole rose to 40.5, indicating that the market sees Dalton as an improve over the 2023 no. 1 choose. There are two key elements that will scare me away from betting on the Raiders as a favourite.
First, Las Vegas struggles to run the ball. The Raiders rank final or near it in each metric, from success charge to yards earlier than contact to EPA per rush. Whereas the Panthers’ defensive position has been weak within the first two weeks, it could put in a stronger effort with Dalton changing Younger.
The second concern is that the Raiders solely managed to make a comeback in opposition to Baltimore as a result of Maxx Crosby and the defensive position exploited a weak Ravens offensive line. In distinction, regardless of its flaws, Carolina boasts a top-five offensive line move block grade, in line with PFF.
I’m nonetheless hesitant to guess on the Panthers at +5.5, however I anticipate they’ll put up a powerful efficiency on this sport.
Verdict:Go until Carolina is +7.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (+7.5)
The harm report for this sport resembles a grocery record, with the 49ers lacking Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey. Regardless of San Francisco’s depth being examined, it’s nonetheless in higher form than its division rival, the Rams, who will likely be with out Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and offensive linemen Jonah Jackson, Joe Noteboom, and Steve Avila.
The Rams’ offensive line efficiency, in line with PFF grades, has been considerably worse than these of different groups within the first two weeks. Even with Alaric Jackson coming back from a suspension, the Rams’ offensive line is just not anticipated to carry out nicely on this sport.
Though Matthew Stafford confirmed offensive prowess in Week 1, the Rams struggled as soon as Kupp was out of the sport. They’d problem shifting the ball in opposition to the Cardinals and are unlikely to search out success in opposition to the improved San Francisco protection.
The whole for this sport was initially set at 46 however has since been lowered to 43.5. The Rams’ defensive metrics are regarding, and the full might have dropped too low. The Shanahan scheme may nonetheless rating 30 factors, even with the accidents.
Verdict:Lean over 43.5.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+3)
Arizona is prone to be a preferred underdog in Week 3 because the Cardinals appeared so dominant in opposition to the injury-ravaged Rams only one week after the Lions barely squeaked by the identical Rams in time beyond regulation at house.
My query is: How will the Cardinals make any stops on this sport? The Lions completed their house sport in opposition to Tampa Bay with simply 16 factors however had been in a position to transfer the ball up and down the sphere all the sport. The one cause the Lions misplaced was as a result of they scored only one landing on seven purple zone journeys. They’d among the best purple zone offenses within the NFL final yr, so I received’t overreact to a few dangerous video games.
Detroit continues to have an elite rush offense, rating first in EPA per rush, and it’s in a position to management the sport by way of its offensive line. Jared Goff hasn’t appeared sharp within the first two weeks, however the Cardinals protection isn’t identified for blitzing, producing strain, or throwing a whole lot of protection wrinkles.
This could be essentially the most watchable Sunday sport, with the full being three factors greater than each different sport, but it surely’s not essentially the most bettable for me. Kyler Murray ought to discover success in opposition to the Lions secondary and preserve the backdoor cowl in play all through the sport.
Verdict:Lean Lions at -2.5 or higher, move at -3.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (+1.5)
Dallas is at house for the second straight week after the Saints torched the Cowboys protection with touchdowns on six consecutive drives to start their Week 2 sport. I do know that the scoring setting throughout the league is approach down because of prolonged and methodical drives, plus purple zone inefficiency, however this whole appears too low for an indoor sport on turf. Baltimore’s offense appears principally tremendous with Lamar Jackson’s capability to create off scrambles, and the Ravens are eighth in EPA on designed rushes by way of two weeks. Dallas doesn’t look any higher at stopping the run, as evidenced by how simply the Saints took benefit of the Cowboys’ run protection.
On the opposite aspect of the ball, the Cowboys’ offensive metrics haven’t been spectacular in any respect by way of two weeks. Nonetheless, they’ve been in excessive sport states, with an enormous lead in Week 1 and an enormous deficit in Week 2, which is skewing the notion of this offense.
With Dallas ranked prime seven in seconds per play and the Ravens offense shifting the ball on the bottom at will, this whole must be nearer to 50.
Verdict:Guess over 48.5 factors (-110).
Sunday Evening Soccer
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)
Atlanta’s offensive line capitalized on a superb alternative and pulled off an upset victory in Week 2, leading to two vastly totally different performances for the Falcons offense. Will the actual Falcons please rise up?
The Falcons’ incapacity to dam the Steelers utterly hindered their offense in Week 1, however they adopted it up by dominating the Eagles’ defensive position in Week 2. Initially, the Falcons ought to have offensive dashing success with Bijan Robinson.
The Chiefs enter this sport ranked twenty second in dashing protection DVOA and are within the backside 5 leaguewide in EPA at defending designed runs by way of two weeks. The adjusted defensive position yards additionally place the Chiefs within the backside eight. This all factors to Atlanta with the ability to transfer the ball on the bottom. Nonetheless, in contrast to Philadelphia, the Chiefs have a formidable move rush and might deliver additional strain whereas nonetheless masking within the secondary.
Kansas Metropolis misplaced Isiah Pacheco to an harm and signed Kareem Hunt. It is a vital loss for the Chiefs offense, which had turn into multifaceted because of Pacheco in current seasons. Atlanta’s defensive position has struggled to generate move rush or cease the run within the first two weeks, making it unlikely that the Chiefs could have bother shifting the ball and profitable the sport, even on the street.
I’ll be concentrating on Robinson with overs in each the dashing and receiving video games as Steve Spagnuolo units up one other take a look at for Kirk Cousins. Until the Chiefs are guess all the way down to -3, I can’t be betting on them in opposition to the unfold.
Verdict:Go.
Monday Evening Soccer
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Payments (-4.5)
That is the proper alternative to help the Jaguars instantly after many have deserted them following a tough 0-2 begin. The Jaguars had been only one fumble by Travis Etienne Jr. in opposition to the Dolphins and an unlawful shift penalty in opposition to the Browns away from probably being 2-0. Regardless of shedding to Cleveland at house in Week 2, Jacksonville outperformed the Browns in whole yards, common yards per play, and purple zone journeys.
Jacksonville continues to have among the best success charges on early downs within the league. Buffalo could also be receiving a whole lot of consideration within the media and available in the market after its spectacular win in opposition to Miami, but it surely nonetheless closely depends on operating on early downs and will battle to generate massive performs in opposition to sturdy defenses.
Verdict:Guess Jaguars +4.5 (-105).
Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
The Bengals got here near profitable at Arrowhead in opposition to Kansas Metropolis, however a defensive move interference penalty and a last-second subject aim prevented them from doing so. On account of their strong efficiency, the market is giving them a serious improve. Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has had relative success in opposition to Patrick Mahomes, however there are nonetheless main considerations concerning the Bengals protection, particularly up entrance.
Cincinnati misplaced defensive tackles B.J. Hill and Sheldon Rankins to hamstring accidents through the sport on Sunday, and their statuses stay unclear forward of Monday night time. The Bengals rank twenty second in rush success charge allowed by way of two weeks and allowed 4.7 yards per rush in opposition to the Chiefs. Washington’s offense has been surprisingly environment friendly within the NFL over the previous two weeks.
Solely the Saints and Cardinals have the next EPA per drive to date than Washington, and the Commanders additionally rank third in sequence success charge, a metric that measures how usually a crew converts a first-and-10 into one other set of downs. The Commanders can shorten the sport by utilizing ball management, quick passes, and efficient runs to make it harder for the Bengals to separate from them with their very own offense.
Whereas Washington is thirty first in EPA per play defensively, if Cincinnati’s possessions are restricted, Washington will keep inside one possession on this sport. Favorites have struggled to cowl giant spreads because of purple zone inefficiency, and the Bengals’ lack of dashing success will harm their purple zone efforts.
Verdict:Guess Commanders +7.5 (-105).
Bets from this text made for Week 3:
Chargers-Steelers below 35.5 (-110)
Packers-Titans below 36.5 (-110)
Ravens-Cowboys over 48.5 (-110)
Texans crew whole below 23.5 vs. Vikings (+100)
Colts moneyline vs. Bears (-118)
Jaguars +5.5 vs. Payments (-110)
Commanders +7.5 vs. Bengals (-105)
