One of many savviest strikes of the 2024 NBA offseason concerned a staff buying and selling its greatest participant and receiving completely nothing that can assist it win video games within the speedy future. The deal was universally hailed. Or, to place it in commonplace transaction report card type:
Out: greatest participant
In: no considered one of consequence
Grade: A+
Solely within the NBA does this calculus compute. You in all probability didn’t even flinch on the premise. As a result of the Brooklyn Nets’ commerce of Mikal Bridges—to the New York Knicks, for a large package deal of draft picks and some nominal gamers—was eminently logical and profoundly sensible. A no brainer. Essential, even.
The Nets had been going nowhere. They wanted a reset. They wanted to replenish their draft capital. And, given the reputed energy of the 2025 draft class, it’s time to be dangerous.
However we’re not right here to high-five the Nets for tanking. We’re right here to reward their readability of objective—an often-elusive function amongst NBA franchises. After meandering by way of a 32-50 marketing campaign, Brooklyn now has a crystal-clear agenda: sacrifice the current, amass property for the longer term. (And if the ping-pong balls ship Cooper Flagg to Flatbush subsequent June, all the higher.) There’s no ambiguity about their course.
Nets followers won’t be thrilled about one more rebuild and the prospect of a 60-loss season. However they’ll take consolation in seeing a definable plan. That’s not the case for no less than a dozen franchises in any given 12 months.
The NBA’s most valuable commodity is, after all, expertise—particularly elite expertise. However possibly essentially the most essential commodity is one completely inside a staff’s management: conviction.
As one longtime staff govt notes: “Too many individuals on this league are scared for his or her job and don’t do what’s proper.” Too many common managers, in different phrases, are extra involved with placating followers or the staff proprietor (and/or avoiding criticism) than pursuing a constant imaginative and prescient. Conviction issues. Readability issues.
This is applicable throughout the spectrum: There are lottery groups following sound blueprints and playoff groups with seemingly no blueprints in any respect. Some franchises are simply perpetually complicated (or confused). It’s not at all times concerning the entrance workplace. There are house owners who refuse to pay the luxurious tax (costing them expertise and depth) or are irrationally connected to an overpaid or fading star (costing them flexibility).
In our list-obsessed world, we’ve ranked groups based mostly on present expertise and future potential, on franchise worth and market measurement, and on each metric possible. Right now, we try and rank them solely on sensibility: Does the franchise have a plan? Clear targets? A course? And are the proprietor and entrance workplace firmly dedicated to it?
This an observational and impressionistic train, based mostly on what we are able to see, hear, and intuit about every franchise. It’s a snapshot, closely weighted towards this season and the speedy future. (And issues can change rapidly, with a sudden commerce demand, a devastating harm, or a breakout season.) However there are not any superior metrics or fancy formulation at work right here. (Your mileage might range.) Herewith, the first-ever Readability Index:
The Ever-Clear Tier
These groups know precisely what they’re making an attempt to do. And so will we.
Brooklyn Nets
Dallas Mavericks
New York Knicks
Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder
Philadelphia 76ers
Washington Wizards
Solely within the Readability Index will you discover the cheerfully tanking Nets in a category with the championship-chasing Sixers. Their targets are wildly divergent—however equally unambiguous. This tier consists of groups at each extremes of the aggressive spectrum.
Begin with the Sixers, who set out this summer season to signal a 3rd star after which obtained him, inking Paul George to a four-year, $212 million contract. Then they locked up Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey on new offers, guaranteeing their new Large Three will get each attainable probability to win a title within the close to future.
The Knicks shipped a crate of draft picks (together with 5 firsts) throughout the East River for Bridges to spice up the Villanova vibes and maximize the magic of the Jalen Brunson period.
The Thunder methodically stockpiled younger expertise, surged to a 57-win season, then snagged one of many league’s greatest defenders (Alex Caruso) and the very best free agent heart (Isaiah Hartenstein) to capitalize on the second. (And OKC nonetheless has that huge cache of draft picks to make use of in potential trades, giving the Thunder extra optionality than any of the present contenders.)
The Mavericks wager massive on Kyrie Irving—at a second when most groups wished nothing to do with him—then rode the Irving–Luka Doncic pairing to a shock Finals look. In February, they splurged to get P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford; in July, they splurged on Klay Thompson.
Take into account the Sixers, Knicks, Thunder, and Mavs because the Dwell for Right now division of this tier. Which brings us to the Dwell for Tomorrow tankers.
It takes conviction to go the teardown route. You’re nearly sure to lose income and attendance and respectability. You would possibly lose some followers. There’s no assure of touchdown a franchise savior within the draft, or in free company. A brief-term rebuild can simply grow to be a half-decade catastrophe (hi there, Detroit). Draft poorly, or make a nasty free agent wager, and at this time’s readability may grow to be tomorrow’s curse.
So credit score to the Wizards and new (as of final 12 months) basketball chief Michael Winger. They lastly traded Bradley Beal and his suffocating contract a 12 months in the past and have continued offloading veterans in favor of youth and picks and suppleness. It was lengthy overdue.
The Nets get barely much less credit score right here. Their rebuild was compelled on them by Kevin Durant’s and Irving’s twin commerce requests in February 2023. They usually arguably held on to Bridges (the primary return within the Durant deal) and different vets longer than they need to have. However they’ve lastly landed in the precise place.
The Aspect-View Mirror Tier
Objects (and obstacles) are nearer than they seem.
Boston Celtics
Milwaukee Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves
Phoenix Suns
Right here we discover a quartet of indisputably all-in groups—the defending champions, adopted by three believable contenders, all anchored by superstars, all firmly dedicated (financially and in any other case) to chasing the 2025 title. However gaze a bit longer, and the image will get a bit messy.
The Celtics did no matter it took to win a championship—then stored (and/or prolonged) each key participant to present them a shot at one other one. However luxury-tax points and the penalties of the NBA’s “second apron” would possibly power Boston to shed expertise as quickly as subsequent summer season. The franchise can also be up on the market, with no assure {that a} new proprietor will probably be as dedicated to profitable as present proprietor Wyc Grousbeck is.
The Suns and Timberwolves made huge, risk-laden, all-in bets—Phoenix on Durant and Beal, Minnesota on Rudy Gobert—sacrificing draft picks and wage cap flexibility for years to return. We will quibble with the knowledge of these strikes however not the readability of their intentions. Nonetheless, there are some caveats with each groups.
New Suns proprietor Mat Ishbia went on a wild spending spree to microwave a contender, paying little thoughts to Durant’s age (quickly to be 36) and well being, or Beal’s contract and harm historical past, or find out how to fill within the rotation below the second apron. This feels much less like a plan of conviction than considered one of impulse—and with an early expiration date.
The Wolves had one meh season with Gobert, adopted by one revelatory season. They’re firmly in rivalry now however, just like the Suns and Celtics, will quickly need to make some tough decisions to keep away from huge tax hits and different penalties. To place it one other approach: How lengthy can they afford to maintain Karl-Anthony Cities?
The Bucks could possibly be dinged for (occasional) payroll pinching, however their dedication to Giannis Antetokounmpo is unassailable. They obtained Damian Lillard. They made a dramatic teaching change, and, when that failed, they modified coaches once more, by no means worrying about the fee. Nonetheless, the roster is trying awfully creaky, with three starters of their mid-30s (Lillard, Brook Lopez, and Khris Middleton), all with in depth harm histories.
The Frosted Glass Tier
There’s a plan right here, nevertheless it’s hazy.
Denver Nuggets
Indiana Pacers
Memphis Grizzlies
Orlando Magic
Sacramento Kings
Let’s begin with the staff that completely shouldn’t be right here. The one which claimed a championship simply 15 months in the past. The one with the reigning MVP. The one which, for a second, had the look of a budding dynasty. The Denver Nuggets needs to be all in, always, so long as Nikola Jokic is in his prime and dominating. And but …
The Nuggets let Kentavious Caldwell-Pope stroll away relatively than reward his contributions. A 12 months earlier, they misplaced key reserves Bruce Brown and Jeff Inexperienced and didn’t change them. The entrance workplace believes its latest draft picks can fill the void; the top coach doesn’t. Denver has been notoriously low cost for years, however now will not be the time to play the small-market sympathy card. The Nuggets did give Jamal Murray a max extension (4 years, $208 million), however that solely makes the image extra complicated; should you’re committing that a lot to your no. 2 star, you ought to be keen to spend what it takes to maintain crucial function gamers on a title staff. The additions of Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric don’t encourage a lot confidence.
The Pacers and Magic are right here nearly out of necessity. They’re each younger and promising and simply beginning to blossom. Every has added a embellished vet (Pascal Siakam in Indiana, KCP in Orlando), nevertheless it’s arguably too quickly to swing for the fences. They’re content material for now to evolve organically and see the place it leads.
The Grizzlies and Kings had their massive breakthroughs two seasons in the past, ending second and third, respectively, amid a down 12 months within the West. However a sudden glut of good-to-great groups has muddled the image—and the agendas of every entrance workplace. The Grizzlies are hoping their core of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. is as potent because it appeared earlier than accidents (and, uh, different circumstances) derailed them. The Kings are banking on a leap to stardom from Keegan Murray and/or a lift from getting older star DeMar DeRozan.
The Kaleidoscope Tier
Colourful and compelling however a bit unsettled.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Houston Rockets
New Orleans Pelicans
San Antonio Spurs
All of those groups have expertise and promise—together with a variety of nagging questions muddying their agendas.
The Cavaliers land right here as a result of they’re stubbornly sticking with a core 4 that’s riddled with redundancies. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are each high-usage, ball-dominant small guards. Defensive-minded bigs Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen usually look simpler alone than with one another. After two seasons of strong however unspectacular outcomes, the Cavs had been broadly anticipated to commerce no less than considered one of their 4 stars—a choice that also appears inevitable. However the one main change of the offseason was a swap in coaches (from J.B. Bickerstaff to Kenny Atkinson).
We all know the Pelicans are loaded with expertise and youth, with a transparent main man (Zion Williamson) and a brand new lead guard (Dejounte Murray) to drag all of it collectively. However they’re at an ungainly crossroads, having desperately tried (and thus far failed) to commerce Brandon Ingram—a high-priced, high-usage wing who now not matches with this group. In addition they have a gap at heart, after sending Jonas Valanciunas to Washington over the summer season.
The Spurs are right here nearly by default—blessed with essentially the most promising and mesmerizing younger star within the recreation (Victor Wembanyama) and transferring methodically to seek out the precise supporting solid.
After which there are the Rockets, a staff flush with intriguing younger expertise however no clear North Star. Who will finally lead this staff? Jalen Inexperienced? Alperen Sengun? Jabari Smith Jr.? A participant to be named? Till they know, it’s arduous to have a transparent agenda—or to make an actual run at a playoff berth.
The Stained Glass Tier
Engaging at a look, headache-inducing should you stare too lengthy.
Golden State Warriors
L.A. Clippers
L.A. Lakers
Miami Warmth
Right here we discover three latest Finals groups, together with two latest champions, all clinging to heat reminiscences whereas praying they’ll rekindle the magic.
The Warriors misplaced a core piece of their dynasty (Klay Thompson) however gave Steph Curry one other extension and a slate of recent playmates (Kyle Anderson, Buddy Hield, De’Anthony Melton) in hopes of reviving their title possibilities after lacking the playoffs completely. The Warmth balked at giving Jimmy Butler an extension, misplaced Caleb Martin, and added no considered one of word, apparently believing they’ll #HeatCulture their approach again into rivalry (or, failing that, stall till they discover a commerce for Butler).
After which there are the Lakers, oh the Lakers, endlessly believing in their very own exceptionalism as an alternative of confronting their frailties. The presence of LeBron James and Anthony Davis means they at all times have a theoretical probability—and needs to be making each effort to maximise their abilities. But the Lakers—to the good bafflement of each sentient being on earth—didn’t make a single vital change to a roster that obtained smoked within the first spherical of the playoffs final spring. (They did fireplace Darvin Ham and change him with a rookie head coach in JJ Redick.)
L.A.’s different staff is simply as confounding, banking all of its hopes on the perpetually injured Kawhi Leonard and the getting older James Harden whereas deciding to let George go away as a free agent. After a half decade as a believable contender, the Clippers now appear content material to only promote tickets at their glitzy, new area.
The Enjoyable-Home Mirror Tier
Complicated, freaky, and infrequently entertaining.
Atlanta Hawks
Charlotte Hornets
Chicago Bulls
Detroit Pistons
Portland Path Blazers
Toronto Raptors
Utah Jazz
Ultimately, we come to essentially the most befuddling tier of all—the groups that appear to have no thought in any way the place they’re headed.
The Pistons, who haven’t gained a playoff sequence since earlier than Obama’s first time period, simply changed their common supervisor and their head coach but once more and have but to develop a franchise star, regardless of annual journeys to the draft lottery. Their offseason strikes—signing veteran Tobias Harris to a two-year, $52 million deal and swapping the younger and reasonably priced Quentin Grimes for the older and overpaid Tim Hardaway Jr.—simply muddied the image additional.
The Bulls have been mired in mediocrity ever since they banked the whole lot on the high-priced/low-ceiling core of DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic. They’ve belatedly begun to tear it down however appear to be caught with LaVine and his huge contract, and so they nonetheless don’t have a definable purpose past chasing a play-in spot.
The Hornets even have a brand new entrance workplace and head coach, and a few attention-grabbing younger expertise, however are not any nearer to respectability.
The Hawks had the readability to lastly finish the failed Trae Younger–Dejounte Murray experiment (sending Murray to New Orleans), however they nonetheless appear directionless. If something, they’re transferring backward.
The Path Blazers are only a 12 months faraway from the franchise-shaking choice to commerce Damian Lillard and maybe deserve some grace. However this can be a staff that waited too lengthy to interrupt up the Lillard–CJ McCollum backcourt, arguably waited too lengthy to commerce Lillard, and squandered possibilities to flip lottery picks for veteran assist when Lillard was nonetheless there. Signing Jerami Grant to an enormous contract simply earlier than buying and selling Lillard doesn’t point out a staff with clear targets. Portland has collected some promising younger expertise—Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons—however with a variety of overlapping expertise and no apparent no. 1.
The Raptors waited too lengthy to shed their outdated core (Siakam, O.G. Anunoby, Fred VanVleet) and are nonetheless making an attempt to assemble a brand new one round Scottie Barnes. Is that this the precise group? Or will we see one other two years of roster churn?
And the Jazz? They is likely to be essentially the most complicated of all—a staff that jettisoned its All-Stars two years in the past, isn’t adequate to make the playoffs, and isn’t dangerous sufficient to nab a excessive draft decide. They may have dealt Lauri Markkanen a dozen instances by now, however they as an alternative gave him an extension that makes him commerce ineligible till subsequent summer season. They’re neither making an attempt to win nor making an attempt to lose—the epitome of a franchise with an id disaster.
