I had a concept final October that the Baltimore Orioles would finally profit from the crushing sweep that the Texas Rangers delivered to them within the 2023 American League Division Sequence. My rationale stemmed from the good dynasties in sports activities historical past; harsh losses have a tendency to show good groups into nice ones. Michael Jordan’s Bulls confronted a number of defeats from the Unhealthy Boys Pistons earlier than they rattled off six NBA titles. The Chiefs misplaced to Tom Brady earlier than they might ascend to the highest of the NFL. And equally, for my part, the Orioles needed to lose to the eventual champions on their manner towards dominating the remainder of the 2020s.
My expectations, whereas excessive, weren’t completely unreasonable. After inheriting a last-place squad in 2018, common supervisor Mike Elias utterly renovated the Orioles. He tore the group all the way down to the studs after which nailed draft decide after draft decide, constructing a stacked farm system that MLB Pipeline ranked no. 1 in baseball from the center of the 2021 season to March of this 12 months. The primary participant Elias drafted, Adley Rutschman, was promoted early within the 2022 season; he was the beginning of a protracted line of extremely touted prospects who will outline the following period of Orioles baseball. After which, in 2023, a 12 months after successful 83 video games, the younger O’s arrived forward of schedule.
That season, Baltimore took the AL East with a staggering 101 wins, establishing itself as not solely baseball’s finest younger group however one in every of its finest groups general. The following disappointment of the postseason precipitated some followers to wonder if Elias ought to have been extra aggressive on the 2023 commerce deadline—when the O’s opted to not commerce a single one in every of their prime 25 prospects—but it surely was simple to see Elias’s imaginative and prescient for the longer term. With Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and a slew of different promising prospects on long-term contracts, Elias selected to forgo extra quick assist in favor of maintaining the runway clear.
Now, as Baltimore prepares to host the Kansas Metropolis Royals within the wild-card spherical of the 2024 playoffs, the Orioles will get their subsequent crack on the postseason—but it surely’s attention-grabbing how a lot has, and hasn’t, modified a 12 months later.
The primary half of 2024 went nearly precisely as deliberate. Corbin Burnes, newly acquired in an offseason commerce with the Brewers, acquired off to a historic begin. Henderson raced out to an MVP-caliber begin. The Orioles have been locked in a battle with the Yankees for the AL East on the prime of a wide-open American League. No. 1 prospect Jackson Holliday had a tough first stint within the majors earlier than being despatched again to Triple-A, however even his demotion highlighted the luxurious of getting each a first-place group and a top-ranked farm system.
I can pinpoint the second once I felt the 2024 season begin to shift. It was a quintessential Baltimore day. I made a cease by Babe Ruth’s childhood residence a mere two blocks from Oriole Park, adopted by a pit cease at Pickles for pregame orange crushes. Then I entered the stadium with 4 of my mates, who occurred to be Yankees followers, and appeared round on the huge variety of folks in attendance. After years of rumors that the O’s would depart Baltimore, and after the tough rebuild, a packed Camden Yards for a sequence in opposition to the Yankees was a welcome sight. There’s magic in Baltimore baseball, however on that day, it was beginning to run skinny. Accidents to Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells—on prime of nearer Félix Bautista—had decimated the pitching workers, and the offense was mired in a droop. The sport dragged on; it was an Orioles loss made worse by the July warmth and the aftermath of the orange crushes, offset solely by the satisfaction of understanding that baseball in Baltimore was significant once more.
Popping out of the All-Star break, the Orioles remained in a useless warmth with the Yankees. For the second 12 months in a row, Elias discovered himself surveying the commerce deadline panorama as a possible purchaser. There have been studies that the Orioles engaged with the Detroit Tigers for Cy Younger favourite Tarik Skubal, however Elias was unwilling to half with Holliday. Nonetheless, the Orioles have been extra aggressive than final 12 months. They traded prospects Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby to the Marlins for Trevor Rogers, who boasted a 2-9 file with a 4.53 ERA on the time. In addition they acquired Zach Eflin from the Rays, despatched former All-Star Austin Hays to the Phillies for extra bullpen depth in Seranthony Domínguez, and traded for reliever Gregory Soto.
Apart from the commerce for Eflin—who has a 2.60 ERA in 9 begins with Baltimore—the O’s deadline exercise proved inadequate to prop them up. In 4 begins with the Orioles, Rogers had an ERA of seven.11 and was optioned to Triple-A—all of the extra disappointing as Norby and Stowers performed often for the Marlins. And Rogers’s struggles have been simply the tip of the iceberg for Baltimore’s pitching woes. Accidents had turned aid conditions right into a nightly journey. Someway, the awe of watching the O’s younger stars come into their powers had given method to the very particular anxiousness of watching a 36-year-old Craig Kimbrel amble his manner by way of one blown save after one other. Between the All-Star break and Kimbrel’s eventual DFA, his ERA rose from 2.80 to five.33.
In the meantime, the harm bug unfold to the place gamers. Speedy infielder Jorge Mateo went down for the season with a UCL harm, whereas All-Star Jordan Westburg missed almost two months with a fracture in his hand. At one level, Orioles beat author Matt Weyrich tweeted an inventory of injured Orioles. It appeared like a possible playoff group.
Extra worrisome, the Orioles’ younger cornerstones have been slumping when the group wanted extra. Rutschman had a median of .132 in July. His offensive worries have been coupled with inexplicable issues on the defensive finish—Rutschman ranked eleventh in catcher framing final 12 months however has dropped to fortieth this season. Henderson had his worst month of the season in August, with a .709 OPS. The Orioles even known as Holliday again up, and regardless of an explosive first week, his early-season struggles returned.
The Orioles completed the second half 33-33, a file that appeared implausible months in the past. They hit a meager .239 in August and September. Their revolving door of a pitching workers struggled to hold them to wins; even Burnes fell out of Cy Younger competition within the second half. The Yankees discovered their very own droop and pulled away with the AL East whereas the Orioles stagnated. Brandon Hyde, the reigning AL Supervisor of the Yr who guided this group by way of a rebuild and gained 101 video games the earlier season, got here underneath hearth on-line.
Pondering again to my concept in regards to the O’s postseason loss final 12 months, I appeared again on the most profitable, sustained runs in MLB over the previous 30 years: the turn-of-the-century Yankees, the early-2010s Giants, and the mid-2010s Astros. These Yankees gained a World Sequence in 1996, in simply their second postseason look, earlier than successful three of the following 4. These Giants, now thought of a dynasty, have been nice solely each different 12 months. And the Astros—Elias’s former group and the closest mannequin for the present-day Orioles—gained a World Sequence of their second playoff look. In every of those circumstances, success got here early—and never accidentally. What if the Yankees hadn’t employed Joe Torre, signed Darryl Strawberry, or traded for Charlie Hayes? What if the Giants hadn’t traded for Hunter Pence? What if the Astros hadn’t traded for Gerrit Cole or Justin Verlander? Sustained success from one of the best groups of the century appears dictated by gutsy strikes that restrict the possibilities of a missed alternative. And whereas the Orioles made an enormous commerce for Burnes (who might be a free agent after this season) and had one other daring transfer fail in Kimbrel, ought to they’ve completed extra?
Progress isn’t all the time linear in baseball. Championships can come from anyplace. The Rangers have been useless within the water final season earlier than they gained the World Sequence, they usually didn’t even make the playoffs this season. The Orioles’ second-half droop doesn’t change their sunny long-term outlook, but it surely does function a reminder that nothing is promised in baseball. It’s a fluky sport, during which home windows of competition can open and shut with out warning.
Regardless of the droop, regardless of the trades, regardless of the accidents, the window continues to be open for 2024. The Orioles completed the season with a glimmer of hope—rediscovering their offense in a sequence win over the Yankees within the Bronx. Baltimore clinched a playoff berth for the second season in a row: a feat that hasn’t been completed by the group in 27 years. I wasn’t alive for the Orioles of the Sixties, the World Sequence–successful 1983 group, or Cal Ripken Jr.’s profession. My expertise as an O’s fan has been characterised by mediocrity and postseason heartbreak. This group, and the following decade of Baltimore baseball, carries extra promise than any Oriole group in my lifetime.
The expectation of nice success is uncharted territory for me as an O’s fan. Annually with a younger core brings extra expectations and better urgency, extra pleasure for what the group can accomplish, and extra anguish when expectations aren’t met. Final 12 months’s postseason run ended early, but it surely felt like a pure step to construct on. This 12 months didn’t utterly go to plan, however a season competing for a World Sequence is healthier than just about each different season the Orioles have had within the twenty first century.
The turmoil the Orioles confronted this season has me as soon as once more serious about the required bumps a group should face on the way in which to reaching its potential. A rocky season clouded in angst and confusion could be what this younger group wanted most to develop. Will the group capitalize on this second within the coming weeks? Or will a second straight postseason disappointment ship it into an interesting offseason? In Baltimore, on Tuesday, the O’s have an opportunity to start what may very well be essentially the most attention-grabbing chapter but of their ever-unfolding story.
