The Six Largest Questions of the 2024 WNBA Finals

Essentially the most momentous WNBA season for the reason that league’s inception almost 30 years in the past is nearing its finish. The champs have been dethroned. The New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx, which maintain the 2 finest data, are the final two groups remaining. Breanna Stewart and Napheesa Collier, the previous and future MVP, who had been teammates at UConn and on the Olympic staff, will duel. Sabrina Ionescu, 4 years after her remaining recreation at Oregon, is lastly having her second. Leonie Fiebich is the final rookie standing in a legendary class headlined by Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese, and Rickea Jackson. Courtney Williams is the best begrudging, I-guess-I’ll-run-the-offense level guard of all time. The stage is about.

Listed here are the largest stats, story traces, and X elements to look at, plus a remaining prediction heading into this championship conflict.

1. Can Napheesa Collier lastly finest Breanna Stewart?

Again in 2016, Stewart was placing the ending touches on probably the most adorned faculty basketball profession of all time, main UConn to its fourth title in 4 years behind a 38-0 season earlier than changing into the no. 1 choose within the draft.

Collier, then a freshman, may solely watch in exasperated awe. There have been instances, like her 12-rebound, six-block, four-steal outing versus LSU in Stewie’s absence, when glimmers of Collier’s do-it-all potential shone by, although. Some former teammates, like Gabby Williams, all the time noticed it.

However she wouldn’t crack 15 factors all season. Within the 2019 WNBA draft, her teammate Katie Lou Samuelson was chosen forward of her. Whereas Stewie was coming off her first MVP season within the WNBA, scouts had been uncertain what to make of Collier, this skinny, unselfish 6-foot-1 tweener ahead with a 6-foot-6 wingspan and burgeoning however shaky capturing vary. It wasn’t clear whether or not the ability set of a guard was hiding within the physique of an influence ahead all these years in the past, ready to be tapped into. However, Phee persevered.

The sport developed, and Collier developed with it. She labored on her vary, rebounding, protection, and stamina, constructing herself into the MVP runner-up in 2024 below the steering of her coach and husband, Alex Bazzell; Corridor of Famers like Sylvia Fowles; and Minnesota head coach Cheryl Reeve, who nonetheless implores her to be extra aggressive.

All through their careers, each Stewie and Phee have pushed past the positional limitations of the ability ahead place.

After the Liberty had been pushed round by the Aces final postseason, Stewie completed the seemingly contradictory job of creating her recreation each more durable and extra guard-like, engaged on her acceleration and declaration to enhance her drives to the rim. This postseason, she has protected the rim in stints, guarded A’ja Wilson, taken the first matchup in opposition to scoring guard Kelsey Plum, and assumed playmaking duties from Ionescu when the Aces trapped her, to the tune of 5 assists within the Liberty’s closeout victory over the Aces in Sport 4.

If Stewart is sort of a cross between Elena Delle Donne and an actualized Karl-Anthony Cities, with extra poise and higher protection than each, Collier is a hybrid of Lauri Markkanen and Tim Duncan—and, like Duncan, is mentored by the longest-tenured coach within the league. Collier can shield the rim, deal with Wilson within the put up, and change onto perimeter gamers as diverse as DeWanna Bonner and Natasha Cloud. Opponents shot 30.1 p.c from 3 in opposition to the Lynx within the common season, the stingiest determine within the W. The Lynx’s protection, which ranked second within the league, was 6.9 factors per 100 possessions stingier with Collier on the ground, and for that she took residence her first Defensive Participant of the 12 months trophy. Collier’s means to pop, roll, slip, put up up, step by, and fade away with equanimity makes her the skeleton key to probably the most intuitive, free-flowing, and dazzling offense within the WNBA.

She performs quick, onerous, and with intention. Take this play, the place she screens, rolls, flashes open to avoid wasting the play, flicks an offensive rebound to the backcourt, areas out to three, posts up within the paint, leaves briefly to flee a three-second violation, after which dives again in for the slicing layup. All within the span of 30 seconds.

Her 27.1 factors per recreation, an all-time playoff document so far; 9.6 rebounds; and three.9 assists in these playoffs are a product of those sequences accumulating. She additionally leads the playoffs in PER and win shares, in accordance to Her Hoop Stats (minimal three video games performed). She covers, based on Sean Hurd, a median of two.58 miles per recreation—the very best determine within the WNBA. After coaches, media members, and followers implored her to be extra aggressive for years, she nonetheless dominates with out insisting on herself, working inside the framework of the offense, sneaking out from below the radar solely when an opponent dares to cowl her one-on-one. When the Mercury tried going that route in Spherical 1, she scored 38 factors in Sport 1 and 42 factors in Sport 2, tying the single-game document for playoff factors.

When she discovered that she tied the document, she excoriated herself for lacking her remaining free throw try, however the trajectory of the ball offered an providing to an previous friendship: It’s a document she now shares with Stewart. Off the courtroom, the duo partnered to develop Unequalled, an expert ladies’s basketball league debuting this January, that can supply minimal six-figure salaries and fairness to gamers.

Stewie has a 7-3 lead of their head-to-head matchups, however two of Phee’s three victories have come this season. The Lynx are the one staff that has crushed the Liberty twice this season, largely as a result of Phee is among the solely gamers within the WNBA who can guard Stewie one-on-one and continue to exist. This can be a nice rivalry not solely due to their historical past but in addition as a result of they play the identical place and are sometimes one another’s major matchup. The Lynx held Stewie to 38.5 p.c capturing from the sphere this season and 21.1 p.c from past the arc. The Liberty turned Phee right into a passer, and her teammates responded by capturing 42.5 p.c from past the arc over the course of three video games.

It will have been onerous to check it eight years in the past, however in Sport 1, when the duo faces off, Collier would be the finest participant on the ground. A championship would stamp her season among the many best and provides Minnesota a WNBA-high six titles, yet another than the Houston Comets and Seattle Storm, with whom Stewart gained her two titles.

Stewart is already one of the completed gamers in historical past. Successful her third championship and giving her residence state’s staff its first title (she was born in Syracuse) would put her subsequent to Candace Parker and Chelsea Grey as one of many few gamers in WNBA historical past to play a starring function on two championship groups, marking one other approach during which she is on the forefront of the sport’s evolution.

2. Is it lastly Sabrina Ionescu’s time?

Postponement, arguably the defining trait of Ionescu’s profession, has given this second an air of concentrated anticipation, like a volcano ready to erupt.

To grasp why it’s such a giant deal for Ionescu to succeed in the Finals, we have now to make a journey down reminiscence lane, after Oregon misplaced to Baylor within the 2019 Closing 4. Ionescu confronted a call: declare for the draft and be taken no. 1 by the Las Vegas Aces or return to varsity in hopes of main her Geese to their first ladies’s basketball title. She selected the latter and made waves with each emblem 3 that splashed by the ring.

On February 24, 2020, she flew to Stanford after talking at Kobe Bryant’s memorial and dropped her twenty sixth triple-double, operating up a university document (males’s and girls’s) that solely Clark, with 17, has come near sniffing.

Ionescu wasn’t the identical worldwide phenomenon that Clark turned in her senior yr of school, however her trajectory, just like the arc of her lengthy triples, was much like Clark’s. Simply have a look at the YouTube feedback from that Oregon-Stanford recreation, which echo the feelings Clark has impressed.

“Ive by no means watched ladies’s basketball, however one thing about this was totally different. I’m beginning to turn out to be a fan!”

“Being trustworthy, I might have by no means clicked on this video spotlight earlier than. However right here I’m, watching and now commenting. This lady, can ball!!!

Two weeks later, she’d drop 20 factors on 12 photographs, get 12 dimes, and acquire eight rebounds in opposition to Stanford once more, main the Geese to a Pac-12 championship victory. 4 days later, COVID-19 would shut down the Geese. March Insanity was canceled. The Ionescu wave washed out earlier than it reached its peak.

Nonetheless, she entered the WNBA with palpable buzz; she was a logo-shooting triple-double machine who had the star-making energy of Nike, based in her faculty yard, behind her.

5 months later, in her second WNBA recreation, she dropped 33, seven, and 7:

The subsequent recreation, she suffered a Grade 3 ankle sprain. Her season, and her ankle, could be placed on ice for the remainder of the yr. The subsequent season, Ionescu turned the youngest participant within the WNBA to ever document a triple-double (a document Clark later broke), however it took her till this season to totally get well and turn out to be the participant she as soon as was.

“Getting damage derailed me slightly bit, confidence-wise, of with the ability to take hits and take off on one leg and land on one leg contained in the paint,” Ionescu informed Alexa Philippou. “It’s good to see the work that I put in now come to life, particularly within the playoffs.”

The context of the league, and what Ionescu is tasked with, has shifted prior to now 4 years. Now not burdened with being the savior, she appears looser and keen to point out extra persona.

Within the first spherical of the playoffs, she dapped up Spike Lee courtside and informed reporters afterward that she “felt like New York was simply injected into my veins. I used to be like, ‘We’re profitable this.’”

Now, with the collective power of Spike, Ellie, and the raucous Liberty fan base—who dwell and die together with her triples and hit-ahead passes—behind her, this might lastly be her second.

The Aces, as soon as the W’s customary, ready her for it. After shedding to them within the WNBA Finals final yr, Ionescu bolstered her protection, improved her first step, and hit the load room. In Sport 3 of the semifinals this season, Las Vegas blitzed her and compelled her into the worst playoff efficiency of her profession.

She responded within the subsequent recreation with 5 3s, working off the ball, driving round doubles, evading traps, and setting screens earlier than flashing open, à la Curry, whereas Stewart and Fiebich took over playmaking duties.

The Lynx will probably use Kayla McBride’s dimension, in addition to the collective wingspans of Collier and Alanna Smith, to gradual her down. What these gamers lack in brute power, they make up for with agility and IQ. This might be a brand new take a look at for Ionescu, however it’s one she’s spent the previous few years finding out for. She is stronger now, capable of maintain her area in pressurized conditions, and more durable to hurry. She will be able to dribble out the delay and use it to her benefit.

3. Will Jonquel Jones swing the sequence?

If there’s one clear weak spot the Minnesota Lynx possess, it’s rebounding. And no person is healthier outfitted to take advantage of it than Jones, the 6-foot-6 bruiser who averaged the sixth-most rebounds within the league this season.

However she was additionallyfifteenth in common fouls dedicated. When she sits, New York has to both play small with Kayla Thornton or abandon the five-out spacing that Jones offers them by going to the extra post-oriented Nyara Sabally.

Jones, given the defensive prowess of the Liberty backcourt and Collier, can be the Liberty star with the very best likelihood of making benefits by mismatches, though Smith and her 6-foot-8 wingspan can have one thing to say about that. Smith, thus far, has held up one-on-one in opposition to the dimensions of Brittney Griner, Alyssa Thomas, and Brionna Jones. Even when she loses the matchup, Minnesota wins as a result of it doesn’t must ship a double. If that pattern holds up in opposition to the Liberty and Ionescu can’t get free, both, New York may revert to the your-turn, my-turn type that did them in down the stretch within the Commissioner’s Cup.

4. Can Courtney Williams hold this up?

After being launched from DeWanna Bonner’s and DiJonai Carrington’s dying grips final spherical, Williams will get a little bit of a respite with the ball in her arms—the operative phrase right here being “a bit” as a result of the Liberty’s Fiebich and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton simply obtained completed with making Chelsea Grey’s life unimaginable.

The Lynx, in contrast to the Aces, are chock-full of playmaking expertise, however no person brings the offense collectively like Williams, whose midrange accuracy places fixed stress on opponents within the pick-and-roll, permitting her to slice by defenses together with her playmaking. Although she’s performed the purpose guard place for simply two years, she’s a pure, threading pocket passes to rollers, eye faking her opponents, and whipping one-handed crosscourt passes to shooters.

However there have been instances final spherical when the Solar made Williams overthink, and the Liberty’s new jumbo beginning lineup, with Fiebich within the center, may do the identical.

In the identical approach that the Aces’ traps examined Ionescu, the Solar examined Williams, who ultimately found out how one can get the very best of them by being affected person together with her midrange shot and dashing up and decelerating to attract fouls. In Sport 5, she hit her first six photographs and completed with 24 factors and 7 assists.

The Lynx introduced again solely 5 returning gamers this season. Williams herself was a free agent acquisition, and her playmaking has acceleratedMinnesota’s newfound chemistry. Bridget Carleton and Smith, two 3-point shooters who can pop and dive, are nice understudies for Collier. McBride, who’s been capturing at 40.7 p.c, may need the quickest launch within the W. Williams’s means to search out openings within the Lynx’s orchestrated chaos makes all of it cohere.

5. Can the Lynx cease the Liberty’s new Loss of life Lineup?

Earlier than their first recreation of the playoffs, Liberty coach Sandy Brondello inserted Fiebich, a Sixth Lady of the 12 months candidate, into the beginning lineup. Over the course of the postseason, albeit in a small pattern dimension of 83 minutes, the Liberty beginning lineup has boasted a whopping 19.8 web ranking—by far the very best mark within the W—carrying over from that lineup’s regular-season mark of 23.8. For comparability’s sake, the Lynx’s beginning lineup, at second amongst lineups which have performed greater than 50 minutes, has a postseason web ranking of 4.9.

Within the even smallerpattern dimension of 24 regular-season minutes (not together with the Commissioner’s Cup), the Liberty outscored the Lynx by 42.4 factors per 100 possessionswhen that lineup shared the ground. By comparability, when Courtney Vandersloot performed alongside the Liberty starters, they had been outscored by 42.1 factors per possession.

Intuitively, it is sensible. Fiebich, at 6-foot-4, permits the Liberty to change 2 by 5 and infrequently 1 by 5, defending Jones from being attacked in drop protection and making initiating troublesome for Williams. There’s an opportunity that the Lynx gained’t have a solution.

6. Will expertise win out? A humble prediction.

Historical past, and the comforting familiarity of the hero’s journey, tells us that you need to lose earlier than you win. That you need to come up in opposition to the onerous edges of your flaws in that remaining essential hour to grasp precisely how one can overcome them. For the Liberty, this was when Stewie discovered to play with physicality, Ionescu labored on her protection, and the staff added depth.

Kelsey Plum’s current feedback that the Liberty had been only a staff of people stung extra as a result of there was a component of fact to the jab, forcing the Liberty to return collectively and discover ways to make their huge three cohere.

The Lynx and Collier, conversely, may need to study to embrace the supremacy of the person. Or perhaps their best problem might be one thing so simple as rebounding. Williams has been to a number of Finals. Myisha Hines-Allen has gained a championship. However this group has by no means gone this far collectively.

The Lynx aren’t any slouches relating to consideration to element, however the Liberty are working with the focusing energy of heartbreak. Stewart stored the receipts, however past a lone pair of Timberlands set on the Aces emblem by New York’s social staff, they haven’t cashed them in. Eleven days and 5 onerous video games from now, I feel they are going to. Ellie, it’s time to get your ring dimension measured.