The Winners and Losers of NFL Week 3

Each week this NFL season, we’ll break down the highs and lows—and all the pieces in between—from the latest slate of professional soccer. Welcome to Winners and Losers.

Winners: Justin Fields and a Watchable Steelers Offense

It’s been greater than 5 seasons for the reason that Pittsburgh Steelers fielded a passing recreation that might be referred to as “productive” by even essentially the most beneficiant requirements. Per TruMedia, the 2018 season was the final time Pittsburgh completed with a optimistic anticipated factors added common on move performs—that’s again when Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and JuJu Smith-Schuster had been nonetheless on the tops of their respective video games. Pittsburgh has been an offensive wasteland since then. Solely the Jets, Panthers, Commanders, and Giants have been worse by complete EPA over the earlier 5 seasons.

However this can be a new season, and the Steelers have a brand new quarterback: Justin Fields, who, surprisingly, has made the Pittsburgh passing recreation watchable for the primary time in years. Fields didn’t gentle up the Chargers’ secondary in Sunday’s 20-10 win, however he placed on knowledgeable show of quarterbacking we didn’t see fairly often throughout his time in Chicago. He accomplished 25 of 32 passes for 245 yards with a landing and an interception. He scrambled solely as soon as, and he took solely two sacks and misplaced simply 13 yards on these performs. He dedicated his first turnover of the season—an unlucky interception off a batted move—however saved the ball out of hurt’s approach. It was the proper efficiency for a quarterback attempting to impress Mike Tomlin, who has spent the previous few seasons teaching across the errors of Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, and Mitchell Trubisky. Fields greater than pulled his weight on this win, and with the Steelers at 3-0 and in first place within the AFC North, it’s arduous to see how Tomlin may presumably ship Fields to the bench as soon as Russell Wilson recovers from the lingering calf damage that has sidelined him since simply earlier than Week 1.

In stacking spectacular performances for Pittsburgh, Fields seems to have improved as a passer in some very important areas. Per TruMedia, he’s on tempo to set profession lows in sack charge, interception charge, time to throw, and off-target throw charge. In different phrases, he’s eliminating the ball on time extra usually than he ever did in Chicago, and the ball is attending to its supposed goal extra persistently. Fields hardly resembles the quarterback who failed with the Bears. That man wasn’t making anticipatory throws into tight home windows over the center of the sector like this:

Whereas Fields’s passes have been extra environment friendly in Pittsburgh, his scrambles haven’t been practically as explosive as they had been in Chicago. He’s averaging simply 6.2 yards and 0.07 EPA per scramble this season; he averaged 9.2 yards and 0.69 EPA per scramble throughout his time with the Bears. That might be as a result of Fields is being extra affected person and turning down run lanes extra typically. Or possibly his breakout scrambling efficiency is imminent—and that may add a much-needed dimension to the offense. The Steelers’ run recreation has been the weak hyperlink for the offense over the primary three weeks. It’s sometimes the opposite approach round in Pittsburgh, and with run-game guru Arthur Smith designing this scheme, there may be purpose to imagine the teaching employees can discover some stability ultimately. The Steelers seem to have discovered a star in rookie middle Zach Frazier, giving Smith one other foundational piece, together with Fields, for a productive run recreation. Enchancment must be coming.

And if the run recreation does certainly decide up, Pittsburgh’s ceiling might be even greater than what it’s already proven. That’s purpose sufficient for Tomlin to maintain Wilson on the bench and title Fields the starter for the remainder of the season. Fields is youthful, he’s a greater athlete, he’s received a stronger arm, and with the strides he’s made as a passer, it’s tough to search out areas the place Wilson owns a transparent benefit. It at all times felt to me like Fields can be the Steelers’ most suitable choice. If Tomlin didn’t see that originally, he should by now.

Loser: Bobby Slowik, Who Failed the Flores Take a look at

If there’s a draw back to calling performs for an excellent younger quarterback like C.J. Stroud, it’s figuring out that you simply’ll be blamed each time something goes incorrect. Loads went incorrect for the Texans offense in Sunday’s 34-7 loss to the Vikings, and second-year offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik will undoubtedly catch warmth for the crappy efficiency—particularly for permitting Stroud to fall into Brian Flores’s defensive blender.

Stroud is already one of many NFL’s finest (and sharpest) quarterbacks, so it’s simple typically to overlook how inexperienced he’s. It’s unfair to count on him to tackle one of many NFL’s most depraved defensive play callers on the street with out important assist from his coaches. Slowik’s job is to make issues simpler for his quarterback, and he didn’t try this on Sunday.

Flores used his typical methods, crowding the road of scrimmage with potential move rushers and overwhelming Houston’s move safety. Stroud and Slowik by no means discovered a solution. The Vikings blitzed Stroud 14 instances on Sunday. He averaged minus-0.31 EPA per play and simply 5.0 yards per dropback. The Texans lastly threw within the towel on Stroud’s behalf and pulled him with just below 5 minutes remaining, when the Texans had been trailing by 27 factors. Flores’s protection may not harass him as he sat on the sideline, but it surely was a protracted day for the second-year professional.

The important thing to avoiding Flores’s nasty blitz bundle is to win on first and second down. Offenses should keep away from apparent passing conditions in any respect prices in the event that they need to stand an opportunity at passing the Flores take a look at. And Slowik has had play-calling points on these early downs all through his time as Houston’s offensive coordinator. Final season, he was criticized for leaning too closely on Houston’s inefficient run recreation on first down. Slowik has responded by calling extra passes on early downs in 2024, however the outcomes haven’t been fairly. The operating recreation stays ineffective, and Stroud is close to the underside of the league in some key passing metrics on early downs. Solely Chicago’s Caleb Williams and Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson have been worse on first and second down by EPA, per TruMedia. Stroud’s brilliance on third down had lined up that challenge in wins towards Indianapolis and Chicago this season. However he couldn’t cowl it up with Flores on the opposite sideline, and that’s not surprising for a younger quarterback; that is merely what Flores does higher than simply about every other defensive coordinator. However with Slowik once more failing to unlock Houston’s run recreation or produce downfield photographs off play-action within the passing recreation on first and second down, Houston’s offense by no means actually stood an opportunity.

Slowik will get extra of those checks with matchups towards different high defenses, like these in Baltimore, Kansas Metropolis, and Buffalo. The Texans could possibly pad their stats towards crappy AFC South defenses, however till we see them put it on a high unit with a savvy defensive play caller, it is going to be tough to belief this younger group to make a playoff run. The Texans have the quarterback and the encompassing expertise to make a run to the Tremendous Bowl. It’s unclear whether or not they have the offensive coordinator.

Loser: The Watchability of the Chiefs Offense

No one in Kansas Metropolis is pounding the panic button after the Chiefs narrowly escaped Atlanta with a 22-17 win. Nonetheless, we’d want to speak concerning the state of Kansas Metropolis’s passing recreation, which put collectively one other punchless efficiency in entrance of a nationwide viewers on Sunday Evening Soccer. Patrick Mahomes wanted 39 makes an attempt to succeed in 217 passing yards towards a nasty Falcons protection. His common depth of throw was simply 5.3 yards on the night time, and that in some way raised his season-long common to five.2 yards, per TruMedia. Solely Baker Mayfield and Jayden Daniels are throwing shorter passes on common.

Mahomes’s aDOT has decreased practically each season since 2018, when he first took over because the Chiefs’ beginning quarterback.

His aDOT has hit a brand new low in 2024, however this isn’t a brand new challenge. We’ve been lamenting Mahomes’s lack of ability to push the ball downfield like he did within the good previous days—sure, 2019 counts as the great previous days on this state of affairs—when Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins had been catching go balls and deep crossers each week. Now the Chiefs’ passing recreation is constructed on drag routes and fast in-breakers in need of the first-down markers.

The rise in two-high coverages has been credited with destroying Kansas Metropolis’s deep passing recreation, however this isn’t the one offense seeing a number of two-high defenses. Different groups have found out methods to push the ball downfield even when the protection is sitting on these performs. Josh Allen and the Payments, as an example, have had no actual points there. Apart from, we’ve additionally seen a decline in Mahomes’s aggressiveness towards single-high coverages. His aDOT towards single-high coverages has dropped to six.1 yards in 2024. That quantity was at 9.0 yards in 2019 and has declined just about each season since then.

That’s not the one regarding quantity for this Kansas Metropolis offense. Travis Kelce, who struggled by way of a lot of the 2023 season earlier than turning it on within the playoffs, is off to a career-worst begin. He’s caught solely eight complete passes and has but to cross the 100-yard mark on the season. He’s averaging simply 0.78 yards per route run, which ranks forty sixth amongst certified tight ends. Even when we see a repeat of final season, such that Kelce comes on down the stretch and performs his finest within the postseason, the Chiefs must make it by way of the common season with a receiving corps that includes Rashee Rice and never a lot else. First-round decide Xavier Worthy seems to be extra like a gadget man early on in his rookie season. Marquise Brown, the group’s massive offseason acquisition at receiver, is predicted to overlook all the common season after present process shoulder surgical procedure and touchdown on IR final week. Barring a midseason pickup, this receiving corps seems to be no higher than the one which held the offense again for a lot of the 2023 season, which suggests we could be in for a protracted season of Chiefs discourse.

Loser: Bryce Younger’s Commerce Worth

Courting again to final season, the Panthers scored 13 complete factors over Younger’s final 4 begins. On Sunday, it took Andy Dalton, who changed the 2023 no. 1 decide within the beginning lineup this week, all of three drives to beat that quantity. And the scoring didn’t cease there. Dalton led the Panthers to 36 factors towards a good Raiders protection and delivered the group’s first win since Week 15 of final season. Extra considerably, Dalton supplied the most recent proof that Younger was the drawback for Carolina’s offense, and there may be little hope for him to show issues round with this explicit group.

Dalton completed Sunday’s recreation with 319 passing yards and three touchdowns. He didn’t throw an interception, and he misplaced solely 13 yards on two sacks. Receiver Diontae Johnson, whom the group traded for within the offseason to theoretically make Younger’s job simpler, broke out with an eight-catch, 122-yard efficiency. First-round receiver Xavier Legette chipped in with a giant 35-yard reception. Working again Chuba Hubbard ran for 114 yards. It felt like the primary time we received to see the complete potential of this offense—which is precisely why rookie head coach Dave Canales needed to bench Younger. Dalton offers the Panthers a shot at a good analysis of each their roster and training employees.

Earlier on Sunday, it was reported that groups had inquired about Younger’s availability in a commerce. Canales has remained adamant that Younger is his quarterback (regardless of experiences on the contrary), however a cut up might be finest for each events at this level. It’s simply unlikely that Carolina would get a lot in return for the struggling first-round decide.

This isn’t the primary time Dalton has put up massive numbers in what was alleged to be a horrible offense that didn’t give its quarterback an opportunity to succeed. He threw for 361 yards in a Week 3 recreation towards the Seahawks final season when Younger was injured. Dalton hasn’t performed practically as a lot soccer as Younger over the previous yr, however the comparability of their numbers in the identical offense might be the most important crimson flag for Younger’s long-term prospects.

Perhaps groups calling a couple of commerce for Younger ought to ask about Dalton as an alternative.

Winner: Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson–Derrick Henry Backfield

Roll the footage!

That’s the spotlight Ravens followers have been ready for since Henry determined final spring that he’d be becoming a member of Jackson in Baltimore’s backfield. Towards a pitiful Cowboys run protection, Henry racked up 151 dashing yards on 25 carries and scored two touchdowns in a 28-25 win in Dallas. Jackson additionally had his approach with the Cowboys protection, carrying the ball 14 instances for 87 yards, together with this game-sealing run:

In all, the Ravens rushed for 274 yards, which made issues simpler on Jackson when he dropped again to move. That was a big change from the primary two weeks of the season, when Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken had been criticized for not placing the ball in Henry’s fingers sufficient. These critiques had been a bit unfair, as Monken referred to as loads of run-pass choices, and in studying the opposing defenses, Jackson selected to move the ball as an alternative of handing it off to Henry. Towards Dallas, Monken swapped out the RPOs for read-option performs, which gave Jackson the flexibility to maintain the ball in his personal fingers and run. Coming into this recreation, the Ravens had tried simply 9 read-option performs, per Sports activities Data Options. We’ll have to attend a number of days to get the up to date read-option numbers after the Cowboys recreation, however based mostly on my reside viewing, Baltimore might have doubled that quantity on Sunday.

However Jackson’s heavier involvement within the run recreation just isn’t the story right here. That’s Henry, who confirmed that at age 30, he nonetheless has loads left within the tank and may take over a recreation. That’s actually what occurred towards Dallas. Henry wasn’t simply benefiting from open rush lanes towards a nasty run protection. He was creating these lanes himself. The operating again broke 12 tackles and created an additional 45 yards in response to Subsequent Gen Stats’ dashing yards over anticipated metric.

There’s nonetheless loads to be involved about with this Ravens offense. The proper aspect of the offensive line is a serious challenge in move safety. The receiving corps isn’t creating a number of separation downfield. And this offense nonetheless has no solutions towards the blitz. How Baltimore navigates these issues will in the end dictate the ceiling on this group, however with Jackson and Henry lastly powering the run recreation, the ground for the offense could be the best within the league.

Loser: Derek Carr’s MVP Marketing campaign Supervisor

Coming into Week 3, New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr had tried 39 passes on the season. Perhaps we must always have waited to see extra from him earlier than deciding he was new and improved, in some way proof against stress, and extra keen to push the ball downfield and pushing him to the entrance of the early MVP race. That marketing campaign hit a velocity bump within the type of a 15-12 loss to an Eagles group whose protection hadn’t been enjoying its finest ball coming into the sport. The previous, acquainted model of Carr—the one who’s overly delicate to stress and all too keen to throw in need of the sticks—confirmed up. And so did the Eagles’ move rush, led by Jalen Carter, who lived within the Saints backfield all afternoon.

By means of the primary two weeks, Carr was averaging a ridiculous (and unsustainable) 18.1 yards per dropback when pressured, per TruMedia. Towards the Eagles on Sunday, he averaged minus-0.5 yards on pressured dropbacks, and his season common dropped to a extra cheap 7.6 yards. The sport fittingly ended with Carr making a panicked throw off his again foot as stress bore down on him. The ball fluttered by way of the air and into the arms of Eagles defensive again Reed Blankenship for a game-sealing interception.

It felt very acquainted. However don’t simply ask me. Take it from Eagles defensive again (and former Saint) C.J. Gardner-Johnson:

Whereas I might be frantically attempting to off-load any Carr MVP inventory I purchased over the previous two weeks, I’m not down on the Saints as a complete. First-year offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak was outcoached by Vic Fangio on Sunday, however the basis of Kubiak’s scheme, constructed round an Alvin Kamara–led run recreation, is sound, and Dennis Allen’s protection ranks close to the highest of the league in response to a lot of the main defensive effectivity metrics. Even after Sunday’s setback, the Saints nonetheless lead the NFL in offensive EPA per play and are tied for second in defensive EPA per play. In addition they personal the league’s finest level differential. Even when this loss poked holes in Carr’s MVP case, New Orleans nonetheless seems to be like the favourite to win the NFC South after Tampa Bay’s poor exhibiting towards the Broncos.

Winner: Inexperienced Bay’s Quarterback Manufacturing unit

The Packers might have completed it once more. In a league the place some franchises spend years looking for one productive quarterback, Inexperienced Bay appears to search out one wherever it seems to be. The most recent is Malik Willis, who led the Packers to a decisive 30-14 win towards the Titans to maneuver to 2-0 as a starter whereas filling in for the injured Jordan Love. Willis led Inexperienced Bay with 73 yards on the bottom in his return to Tennessee, and the offense led a run-heavy script for a second consecutive week. It was a dominant efficiency on the bottom for Willis, but it surely doubled as essentially the most spectacular passing efficiency of his profession to this point—and he did it towards the group that drafted him within the third spherical in 2022 and traded him to the Packers for peanuts final month. Packers coach Matt LaFleur didn’t ask an excessive amount of of Willis within the passing recreation—it was a gentle food regimen of designed brief passes and deep photographs that don’t require a lot thought—however Willis flashed his arm energy with a few passes over the center of the sector, together with this strike to maneuver the chains on third down.

Willis accomplished 13 of 19 passes for 202 yards and a landing towards Tennessee. He hasn’t but tried sufficient passes to qualify for the league’s statistical leaderboards, but when he certified, Willis would rank second in yards per dropback and EPA per dropback. He’d be third in ESPN’s complete quarterback score. We’re speaking a couple of quarterback who had by no means thrown for 100 yards in an NFL recreation earlier than final week. He’s been on this offense for just a few weeks complete. As LaFleur stated after the sport, what we’re seeing out of Willis is actually stunning.

“I simply can not articulate the job that he’s completed on this brief time frame,” LaFleur stated, by way of ESPN. “Individuals can’t fathom it. I promise you, you guys don’t get it. I do know you suppose you bought it, however you don’t get it. What he’s been in a position to do, I’ve by no means seen one thing like this.”

LaFleur, as soon as once more, additionally deserves some credit score. Although Willis seems to be like a very completely different participant for the Packers in comparison with his time with the Titans, it’s clear he has limitations as a passer. And the Packers employees, together with offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich, has completed a superb job of working round these weaknesses and leaning into his strengths. The Packers are spamming quarterback runs and drawing up easy throws that make good use of Willis’s skill to throw on the transfer. These aren’t advanced plans Inexperienced Bay is throwing at its opponents—and it’s solely a matter of time earlier than defenses begin to catch up—however they’ve served their goal: Willis hasn’t been put ready to make foolish errors, and he hasn’t gone out of his option to make any. (Not like Will Levis, the man he used to again up in Tennessee.) Extra importantly, the Packers are 2-0 with out their beginning quarterback and only one recreation again from the division-leading Vikings.

Loser: Kyle Shanahan within the Fourth Quarter

Because the 49ers held a 10-point lead halfway by way of the fourth quarter of a recreation towards the Rams wherein they needed to play with no trio of star skill-position gamers, it regarded like Shanahan was headed for every week of reward for his newest show of schematic wizardry. With out Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, Shanahan managed to craft a recreation plan that allowed Brock Purdy to throw for 292 yards and three touchdowns and WR3 Jauan Jennings to catch 11 passes for 175 yards and three scores. Shanahan appeared poised to notch one other win over his closest rival, Sean McVay. It was shaping as much as be day for Shanahan.

After which all of it fell aside. Now Shanahan will spend the approaching days answering questions on one other blown lead within the fourth quarter. The Rams, who’ve additionally been coping with damage points and performed this recreation with out their high two receivers, scored 13 consecutive factors to steal a 27-24 win and dropped the 49ers to 1-2. In the end, it gained’t matter that Shanahan was with out three of his stars. It gained’t matter that there weren’t any apparent teaching errors that led to this blown lead. Or that his extremely drafted kicker, Jake Moody, missed a discipline aim that would have put the sport away. Or that receiver Ronnie Bell dropped a deep move from Purdy that may have given Moody one other shot at a go-ahead discipline aim late within the recreation—a drop that made Shanahan throw his arms up in disgust.

This loss will likely be pinned on Shanahan, and possibly it must be. In keeping with the Related Press, it’s the fifth time Shanahan’s 49ers have blown a double-digit lead within the fourth quarter. Solely John Harbaugh’s Ravens have blown extra of these leads since 2017. 5 video games shouldn’t overshadow the entire different incredible work Shanahan has completed overseeing this Niners group, however when two of these losses are Tremendous Bowls, you’re going to catch shit about it.

These losses are robust to abdomen, however in the end there’s nothing to glean from these blown leads. There’s no constant sample to them. Shanahan has been criticized for not operating the ball sufficient in these spots. And he’s been criticized for being too conservative. He’s seen completely different 49ers quarterbacks soften underneath stress. If you happen to coach as many high-profile video games on this league as Shanahan has, you’re going to take some ugly L’s. His losses have simply been poorly timed, and, as was the case on Sunday, notably deflating.