5 issues I care about
Cowboys received one thing from their ancillary offensive gamers
Dak Prescott received dragged down into the muck and mire the place all Steelers video games unfailingly journey. The normally regular quarterback dedicated three turnovers and took inopportune sacks. His reference to CeeDee Lamb was, at greatest, hit and miss. A wonderful toe-tap catch alongside the sideline on his first catch felt like a distinct lifetime in the past by the point we received to a miscommunication that resulted in an interception, and the next sideline dialogue:
With their two newly minted franchise gamers not providing up their greatest ball, Dallas received one thing that’s been painfully lacking by way of the primary month of the season: contributions from the ancillary offensive gamers.
With Brandin Cooks positioned on IR, the Cowboys have been pressured to offer extra alternatives to third-year wideout, Jalen Tolbert. Given the way in which Cooks was enjoying within the first month and the way Tolbert responded on Sunday night time, this will likely have been a coup for Dallas. Tolbert led the group in receiving yards, snaring seven passes for 87 yards and the game-winning landing on 10 targets. He was an affect participant from the early moments of this recreation. The truth that he sealed the deal on the finish when he stepped up because the lead receiver whereas coping with an harm from the prior play felt too poetic.
Tolbert has flashed as a vertical receiver within the first few video games and did it persistently on Sunday towards a very good secondary. The Cowboys have been desperately lacking a vertical X-receiver who can win on curl and comeback routes since Michael Gallup tore his ACL a number of years in the past. It’s early however Tolbert might find yourself being a solution. He’s merely 6% rostered in Yahoo leagues and I’d be surprised if he didn’t have a task in Dallas going ahead.
I don’t know if Jake Ferguson might be thought of an ancillary participant at this stage — he’s too good — but it surely’s price noting he was the second-most impactful receiver. He confirmed the yards-after-catch abilities that make him a super beneath possibility for Dak Prescott on this offense. He’s been one of many few proper solutions on the tight finish place this season.
Maybe probably the most impactful emergence was that of Rico Dowdle at operating again. Dowdle had quietly been taking up the backfield from Ezekiel Elliott. Week 5’s win over the Steelers ought to make it an official breakout. Dowdle led the group by a large margin with 20 carries and caught each of his targets for 27 yards and a rating. His solely lowlight was a near-disaster fumble on the finish however in any other case, Dowdle was environment friendly, received what was blocked and added yards on the finish of his runs. He might not have probably the most explosiveness out of the backfield however Dowdle is a gradual presence who can preserve the offense on schedule.
The Cowboys offense regarded like probably the most top-heavy models within the NFL heading into the season with main questions past Lamb and within the backfield. It’s one recreation however Week 5’s win over the Steelers confirmed there’s some attention-grabbing younger expertise to mine on this unit.
If guys like Tolbert and Dowdle can push previous “attention-grabbing” and set up themselves as plus belongings on a constant foundation, that raises the ceiling projection on an offense that’s too usually been caught in impartial by way of 5 video games.
Brian Thomas Jr.
This week, somebody requested me my opinion on whether or not Brian Thomas Jr., regardless of being the fourth man drafted, may find yourself being one of the best extensive receiver from the 2024 NFL Draft. I’m usually skeptical of that being doable, not due to something to do with Thomas however as a result of I’ve a lot respect for Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze.
Then, you watch Thomas play in Week 5 and I’m somewhat tempted to alter my reply.
Thomas is an unimaginable participant. It went somewhat under-discussed that he actually is a freakshow athlete at 6-foot-3 and 209 kilos with a 4.33 40-yard sprint. We’ve seen that field-flipping velocity when he will get unfastened within the secondary. Nevertheless, what’s extra spectacular is that he’s been a much more polished receiver than I ever may have anticipated.
Thomas ran a stripped-down route tree at LSU. He confirmed he may win in different methods but it surely was honest to anticipate an adjustment interval in his rookie season.
I’ve made this early profession utilization comparability for Brian Thomas Jr., so I assumed it might be good to indicate the information.
Brian Thomas Jr.’s #ReceptionPerception prospect profile:
– 67.1% of his charted routes have been a slant, curl or 9 routeDK Metcalf’s rookie season RP profile:
-… pic.twitter.com/TqYIgb9J7l— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) April 5, 2024
Thomas is thrashing the expectations. He’s been a full-field risk who has accomplished extra on in-breaking routes within the NFL than he did final yr at LSU. He’s been the perfect goal for Trevor Lawrence, who desires to push the ball down the sector however hasn’t had a receiver of this archetype at any level throughout his Jaguars tenure.
A few of the method Thomas is scoring fantasy factors is unsustainable, given his landing charge, and sure, each perimeter extensive receiver crushes the Indianapolis Colts protection. All that stated, Thomas is the man for Jacksonville. He’s been their most explosive participant by a wholesome hole and it’s no shock they simply had their greatest offensive day with Thomas as the point of interest.
Thomas is already pacing to be top-of-the-line extensive receiver picks in fantasy soccer this season. If he will get extra focus of the targets within the Jaguars offense, a promotion that he’s earned, he can actually get rolling and proceed to make the case that he’s a real No. 1 wideout.
Jayden Daniels passes a check
Everybody identified heading into this week that Jayden Daniels was about to go towards a a lot harder protection in Cleveland than he handled in his earlier two dynamic video games. His completion share (56%) got here down and he solely threw one landing to at least one choose, however total, he handed this primary check with flying colours.
Jim Schwartz and the Browns protection tried to throw Daniels some curveballs. In keeping with Subsequent Gen Stats, Daniels confronted the blitz on 52.9% of his dropbacks in Week 5, his highest charge in a recreation this season. He comported himself effectively on these performs, taking simply two sacks. Much more spectacular, Daniels averaged 12.5 yards per try when blitzed.
Early within the season, lots of the solutions on this offense to extra stress was to dump the ball off within the quick areas. Attacking downfield has abruptly turn into the idea of the passing recreation, it doesn’t matter what the defensive seems are up entrance. Daniel additionally scrambled 9 instances on this recreation however threw on three of these performs, finishing all three passes for 88 yards.
Two of the largest critiques of Daniels’ recreation as a prospect have been his excessive pressure-to-sack charge, and that he took off scrambling too early. A few of that, particularly the latter, has crept up early in his rookie season, however neither regarded like an issue for Daniels on this Week 5 win towards a stout Browns protection. That’s an extremely encouraging growth for the rookie passer.
Daniels will face extra checks as he continues to climb the ranks of NFL quarterbacks. For now, we realized in Week 5 that the Commanders offense has solutions for its quarterback towards stress and within the downfield passing recreation, and that the participant himself simply continues to get higher. Proper now, Daniels seems like a matchup-proof begin in fantasy and greater than able to carrying a heavy burden as Washington’s franchise quarterback.
The Texans’ ceiling is decrease than we hoped, for now
Houston was not at full energy in Week 5. It confirmed in what ended up being a win however one other shaky outing for his or her offense.
Joe Mixon missed his third straight recreation and we all know that, at this level, his presence makes a distinction for the Texans’ operating recreation. Even when Mixon isn’t an elite again, he’s a big enchancment over Houston’s backup choices presently on the sector. This group’s lack of early down success might be instantly attributed to the shortage of a constant run recreation. Mixon alone might not be sufficient to unravel their speeding points but it surely’s past clear this group of backs isn’t ok to operate of their conventional zone scheme.
Much more devastating, Nico Collins left the sport early within the first half with a hamstring harm. Previous to his absence, Collins had taken his two targets for 78 yards and a landing. He was on his strategy to one other large recreation earlier than heading into the locker room. With out Collins on the sector, the passing recreation felt one thing nearer to unusual.
It felt like that as a result of that’s what it’s with out Collins.
Houston Texans following the Nico Collins harm:
Goal share
27% – Stefon Diggs
20% – Dalton Schultz
13% – Tank DellAir yardage share
36% – Diggs
27% – Schultz
13% – Dell— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 6, 2024
As excited as we have been about Houston’s receiver room within the preseason, we’ve seen that Collins is way and away the group’s alpha by way of 5 video games. No passing offense loses a participant like that and simply retains on rolling. Stefon Diggs continues to be a very good participant, however he’s settled right into a complementary beneath and slot-heavy function. At this stage, he gained’t persistently have an effect on the sport in any respect three ranges like he used to. The person who ought to be their second-best deep risk is Tank Dell however he’s simply not the participant he was as a rookie in the meanwhile. Dell is coming off a critical harm from late final yr and missed final week with a chest problem. In some unspecified time in the future, he can get again to being that high-impact wideout, however the movie reveals he’s not that man proper now.
Some underlying points throughout the offense additionally have to be addressed, however getting their WR1 and RB1 again within the combine will repair lots of the ills. Till that occurs, we might must decrease the ceiling for the Texans offense. Don’t lose hope that we see it in some unspecified time in the future sooner or later however for now, extra realism is required when analyzing this group on a weekly foundation. Nonetheless, it’s nice that they proceed to win whereas enjoying barely under expectations.
Lamar Jackson takes the wheel from Derrick Henry
The Ravens had been barrelling over the competitors the final two weeks. The Lamar Jackson-Derrick Henry backfield was proving to be each bit the dynamic pressure we have been offered it as. Because the group rolled over Dallas and Buffalo, the passing recreation took a backseat. Going towards a Cincinnati protection that was close to the underside of the league at stopping the run, it appeared to make all of the sense on the earth that Baltimore would saddle up Henry for one more main workload.
That’s not how issues performed out, as Joe Burrow and co. threw throughout a Ravens secondary that’s had its points this season. The offense wanted Lamar Jackson to take the wheel again from Henry — and he responded with a wonderful efficiency.
The Ravens ranked lifeless final in impartial cross charge in Weeks 3 and 4 however threw 42 passes of their additional time win in Week 5. Per Subsequent Gen Stats, Jackson accomplished 10 of his 15 passes within the intermediate space and eight of 11 passes towards man protection for 97 yards and three touchdowns, his most in a recreation in his profession.
Too usually within the early portion of the yr, the Ravens’ passing recreation felt constricted. They have been overdosing on screens, operating again targets and beneath seems. Their Week 5 passing efficiency was a stark distinction to that type of method.
Probably the most spectacular half was Jackson activated a wide range of totally different receivers within the effort. Rashod Bateman made spectacular grabs alongside the sideline, Zay Flowers hauled in downfield seems and all three tight ends — protect your eyes, the ultimate few Mark Andrews managers on the market — received concerned in numerous packages.
The Bengals protection isn’t a very good unit at any stage, in order that caveat needs to be utilized when analyzing this efficiency. Nevertheless, there’s expertise on this passing recreation, and that shined by way of for the primary time this season.
5 issues I don’t care about
The Steelers offense
There have been fleeting moments throughout the early chapter of the 2024 season the place the Steelers offense has been intriguing. A few of what they do with the tight ends is fascinating and Justin Fields has briefly flashed a few of the mobility that makes him a dynamic possibility behind heart.
But, Week 5 was a reminder that the general image of Pittsburgh’s offense is a restricted one. This group simply doesn’t have a lot steam.
It begins with a operating recreation that was meant to be the id of the group however has been completely toothless by way of 5 video games. With Cordarrelle Patterson and Jaylen Warren out, Najee Harris dominated the operating again touches. It amounted to merely a whisper, 14 carries for 42 yards. Harris has been below 4.0 yards per carry in each recreation this yr.
The passing recreation took on a larger burden in Week 4 when the Steelers have been making an attempt to return again towards the Colts however that momentum didn’t stretch into this recreation. Fields had his moments in Week 5 however total, couldn’t mount constant drives by way of the air. It’s further troubling that this effort got here towards a Cowboys protection that has been devastated by accidents of their cross rush group and is lacking a number of defensive backs.
I’ve been fairly bewildered by the quantity of protection Russell Wilson has gotten the final 5 weeks whereas he’s been out with a calf harm. Whereas Sunday night time made it clear Fields leaves loads on the desk, I can’t think about Wilson being a greater possibility, particularly whereas the operating recreation can’t carry its weight.
Most troubling of all was the shortage of George Pickens’ involvement. The Steelers wideout was rotating on and off the sector because the WR3, regardless of the shortage of confirmed gamers round him at receiver.
That one is inexplicable. The one doable variable that may make sense is that if Pickens is in some type of doghouse scenario with the teaching workers. Given a few of the flare-ups we’ve seen with Pickens in his first two seasons, that isn’t out of the query. In any other case, it is unnecessary to reduce this participant particularly as a result of I feel he’s performed a few of the greatest soccer of his profession to begin this season. This can be a scenario to observe, particularly as extensive receiver commerce whispers permeate all through the NFL.
The Steelers offense is simply lifeless proper now. That’s a well-known story. We shouldn’t be shocked both. Fields and Wilson are massive names however they aren’t uniquely good options for a group that’s attempting to dig itself out of the huge gap left behind by the Kenny Pickett flame-out draft choose. You don’t simply flip round from a miss like that and throw out a high-flying offense.
The 2024 Steelers don’t appear to be they’re about to be an exception.
Jordan Love’s volatility
Will Levis didn’t play this week as a result of the Titans are on bye however by some means, he nonetheless caught strays on social media. His identify got here up greater than as soon as, when Jordan Love threw a mind-bending interception from his personal finish zone:
There’s no query that Love is able to some maddening moments. He tries to write down checks that he’ll must max the account out to money when extra economical choices can be found. Love might must dial again that willingness to blow his funds when the second doesn’t name for it.
That stated, it’s exhausting to essentially wish to pull the reins in on Love as a result of, not like somebody like Levis, he completely has the arm expertise to money these checks:
It’s a lot simpler to dial again the aggressiveness than to get a timid passer to let their hair down. The Packers have correctly determined that it’s price dwelling with that volatility as a result of, for probably the most half, the reward outweighs the fee.
Each time we attempt to break up a season into clear halves, we nearly all the time make errors. Most individuals needed to consider that as a result of the second half of Love’s season was the latest end result, he’d all the time been the utterly dialed-in, largely mistake-free model of himself. That isn’t how the game works. The complete image issues, and clear half-season splits are normally simply coincidences pushed by circumstances.
Love is each bit the gunslinger who provides the opposite group a number of photographs on the ball as he’s the dynamic passer who mowed by way of the league within the again half of 2023. That’s completely effective. He might be and is a top-10 quarterback whereas working like that. You reside with the hair-on-fire moments as a result of, whereas a turnover is brutal, a gap shot down the sector to your famous person receiver in Jayden Reed might be the rationale you’re taking an early lead and by no means give it away.
The Packers offense gained’t be a squeaky surgical unit with Love below heart however the ceiling stays outrageously excessive.
The Broncos offense
Guess you didn’t assume I’d have one thing to say a few usually non-competitive AFC West matchup between Denver and Las Vegas.
I really feel the necessity to speak in regards to the Broncos on this part as a result of I’m unsure what number of instances I’m going to say them on this article all season.
For starters, on that offensive aspect of the ball, I’ll admit I don’t love that unit. A few of what Sean Payton’s rolling on the market doesn’t essentially mild my fireplace from a schematic standpoint within the fashionable NFL they usually don’t have many needle-moving gamers surrounding rookie quarterback, Bo Nix. Their passing tree is so long as a phonebook —to steal a Scott Pianowski particular — as Nix accomplished passes to 11 totally different gamers in Week 5. Operating again Javonte Williams led the group with six targets. It’s an odd unit to determine and certain gained’t have a excessive ceiling at any level this season.
With all that stated, none of the ambivalence I simply provided extends to the protection, which is likely one of the most pleasing models to look at this season.
Vance Joseph throws a ton at quarterbacks from a pass-rush perspective. Denver blitzes like loopy up entrance and performs bodily protection like a unit that has implicit belief in its secondary.
And they need to — that unit is unbelievable.
Everyone knows Patrick Surtain II is an All-Professional participant. He snagged two interceptions, together with a pick-six towards the Raiders, however that’s not normally his calling card. He’s one of many final of a dying breed as a man-coverage specialist nook who tracks No. 1 wideouts across the area. We noticed on Sunday that when a group doesn’t have a No. 1, he might be extra of a ballhawk and disruptor.
Surtain’s not the one participant they’ve on the back-end both, as No. 2 nook Riley Moss has loved a breakout second season.
The Broncos have been a top-five protection this season. They’ve put unhealthy offenses into the meat grinder and given sturdy models actual hassle. That group is sweet sufficient to maintain the Broncos aggressive whereas the offense will get Nix settled. We noticed him take pleasure in an environment friendly outing towards the Raiders in optimistic recreation script and people moments gained’t be exhausting to return by with this protection in tow.
Davante Adams preferring the Jets
By all accounts, Davante Adams’ most most popular vacation spot is the New York Jets. We all know he desires to go there as a result of Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback. That’s the place it stops making sense for all events concerned.
From Adams’ perspective, in case your aim is to get a Tremendous Bowl earlier than the tip of your profession, I can’t think about why the Jets appear to be an interesting vacation spot. A group that was pitched as being a quarterback away, it’s secure to say that was a gross overstatement of the place this group stands 5 video games into the 2024 season.
You see Allen Lazard dropping passes in high-leverage moments or the additional protection on Garrett Wilson and notice there’s no query that Adams would make the Jets offense higher. Nevertheless, are they a Davante Adams addition away from salvation?
No method.
The Jets stroll into each recreation at a drawback as a result of Nathaniel Hackett is the offensive coordinator. The offensive design seems extra like one thing out of the mid-2010s than something like a flourishing, fashionable teaching tree.
Then, on high of that, as soon as the video games get began, the Jets bury themselves below a cascade of what needs to be little errors. Drops shouldn’t sink your offense. Missed assignments on the offensive line shouldn’t spell doom. Receivers being somewhat off their routes shouldn’t be the tip of the world. Even rigidity out of your quarterback should not be what destroys your day. And but, once you do all of it each recreation repeatedly whereas going through good defenses, it turns into inconceivable to operate.
It’s too early to say it’s over for the Jets or that they will’t proper the ship offensively when the matchups get simpler. But it surely’s not too early to acknowledge that merely dropping Davante Adams into the product we watched Sunday morning in London just isn’t sufficient to get this group near its ceiling. A lot extra must be corrected past the expertise at exterior receiver.
Till we see these fixes, anticipate everybody on this offense to underperform expectations.
The Payments offensive leads to Weeks 1-3
The Payments offense within the first few weeks of the season confirmed a well-organized unit with a terrific operating recreation captained by top-of-the-line quarterbacks within the NFL. That’s greater than sufficient to thrash the Cardinals, what we all know now’s a foul Dolphins group and the Jaguars.
The final two weeks towards high quality AFC contenders with good gamers within the secondary — the story seems fairly totally different.
The Texans have two high quality exterior corners in Derek Stingley Jr. and rookie Kamari Lassiter. Exterior of a 49-yard catch-and-run landing from Keon Coleman — which was a terrific play and you’ll’t take it away from him — the Payments received completely nothing from their exterior receivers in Week 5. It actually dawned on me how robust this case is when Mack Hollins wasn’t the place Josh Allen anticipated him to be on a third-down route and, the very subsequent play, Hollins is the gunner on the punt. The Payments simply don’t have sufficient separation potential from these perimeter gamers proper now. Allen accomplished simply 1 of 15 passes of 10-plus air yards on Sunday, the bottom completion share on such passes (6.7%) in Allen’s profession, per Subsequent Gen Stats.
Not having Khalil Shakir on the sector made an enormous distinction for this Payments offense. Shakir has been a chain-mover and is by far one of the best separator on the group. He’s their slot receiver, so that doesn’t clarify the problems on the perimeter the final two weeks. That’s simply the truth of their offense proper now.
The Payments get the Jets and the Titans the following two weeks. Whereas these groups have had points on offense, each defenses have been wonderful. We may see these points proceed to creep up towards groups with good gamers on the again finish who can problem these extensive receivers. That brings down the ceiling of your complete unit, even Josh Allen’s weekly stats.