The 2024 MLB common season is sort of full, with only a scrumptious doubleheader—stuffed with playoff implications and the potential for scandal—between Atlanta and the Mets nonetheless to return on Monday. However there’s no time to attend for that decision earlier than commencing precise postseason evaluation, as a result of the playoffs themselves begin on Tuesday!
So earlier than the wild-card spherical begins, let’s study the playoff contestants (and remaining potential contestants) to find out why each may, and won’t, win the 2024 World Collection. It is a wide-open subject, after a daily season through which no crew gained 100 video games. The final time MLB introduced this degree of parity was 2014, when a scarcity of 100-win groups produced an exciting postseason, which began with the best wild-card recreation ever and ended with the World Collection–tying run stranded on third base.
Might baseball followers be blessed with related drama a decade later. As we dive into our evaluation, groups are ordered by FanGraphs championship chance. All WAR figures come from FanGraphs.
Philadelphia Phillies (95-67, NL’s No. 2 Seed, 17 P.c World Collection Odds)
Why they’ll win:The Phillies have MLB’s most full crew. All 4 of their projected playoff starters—Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Christopher Sánchez, and Ranger Suárez—have been value not less than 3 wins above substitute this season, which no different crew can boast. The Phillies are additionally completely fitted to October baseball, with a bullpen stuffed with flamethrowers and a lineup stuffed with sluggers. They run properly, they subject properly (apart from Nick Castellanos, not less than, and he has one other playoff gear), they usually rock the proper vibes.
There’s a motive FanGraphs provides the Phillies one of the best odds of lifting the Commissioner’s Trophy subsequent month. If I needed to reset my preseason predictions now (I picked a wholesome Atlanta earlier than the 12 months), the Phillies could be my option to win all of it, too.
Why they gained’t:The Phillies did all of their heavy lifting within the spring and early summer season, however for the reason that All-Star break, they’re simply 33-33. Three of the crew’s infielders have slumped over that span (Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and Trea Turner—perhaps the latter wants one other standing ovation), and the pitching employees has allowed manner too many homers. Momentum is generally a delusion, and it’s not as if the Phillies had anybody pushing them throughout their monthslong swoon, however they have to hope they didn’t peak too early, after reaching their stride at simply the proper time in 2022 and 2023.
New York Yankees (94-68, AL’s No. 1 Seed, 16 P.c WS Odds)
Why they’ll win:Baseball isn’t usually like different sports activities, through which a dominant pick-and-roll duo or quarterback–large receiver pairing can energy a crew to victory. Two stars aren’t sufficient to win on the diamond (see: Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout in Anaheim). However Aaron Decide and Juan Soto will put that maxim to the check this October, after Decide led the majors with a 218 wRC+ (amongst certified AL/NL gamers since 1901, solely Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, and Ted Williams have completed higher) and Soto ranked third with a 180 wRC+.
The Yankees’ star pitcher is peaking on the proper time, as properly. Gerrit Cole has rounded into type after a gradual, injury-delayed begin to the season. The reigning Cy Younger winner has a 2.25 ERA (with a 2.62 FIP) in his final 10 begins; take out one blowup towards the Purple Sox, and he has a 1.29 ERA within the different 9 appearances.
Why they gained’t:The Yankees actually, actually need Decide and Soto to supply at historic ranges, as a result of the remainder of the lineup doesn’t seem as much as the duty of profitable a title. The Yankees are the majors’ worst baserunning crew, to allow them to’t manufacture runs through small-ball techniques, and the lineup is marred by two large holes: at first base (the place Anthony Rizzo was struggling even earlier than fracturing two fingers) and left subject (the place Alex Verdugo can’t hit and Jasson Domínguez can’t subject).
And whereas Cole seems to be prepared to start out Recreation 1 of the ALDS, the remainder of the pitching employees seems to be much less dependable, particularly after Nestor Cortes Jr.’s elbow scare. The bullpen—nearly all the time a energy for New York—is particularly flux after the struggles and ensuing demotion of nearer Clay Holmes.
Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64, NL’s No. 1 Seed, 16 P.c WS Odds)
Why they’ll win:The Dodgers offense is on fireplace. Ohtani stole the present together with his historic 54-homer, 59-steal season, however he’s not alone: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Teoscar Hernández all ranked among the many prime 22 certified hitters in wRC+, and Max Muncy would fee simply as extremely if he had sufficient plate appearances to qualify. The Dodgers led the majors in run differential and crew wRC+, and solely the Diamondbacks—who play in a extra hitter-friendly house park—scored extra complete runs. Led by Ohtani in his first playoff look (lastly!), L.A. may simply slug its technique to the World Collection.
Why they gained’t:Right here’s an inventory of injured Dodgers starters: Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin Might, Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan, and River Ryan.
Right here’s an inventory of at the moment wholesome Dodgers starters: midseason acquisition Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (who hasn’t lasted greater than 5 innings or 79 pitches in 4 begins since getting back from his personal harm), Walker Buehler (who had an unpleasant 5.38 ERA and 5.54 FIP after getting back from Tommy John surgical procedure), Bobby Miller (who’s down in Triple-A as a consequence of an 8.52 ERA), and 27-year-old rookie Landon Knack.
There’s nearly no manner the Dodgers’ playoff rotation will carry out as poorly because it did final postseason, when Kershaw, Miller, and Lance Lynn mixed to permit 13 runs in 4 2/3 innings (that’s a 25.07 ERA) en path to being swept by Arizona within the NLDS. However there isn’t a lot motive to count on the Dodgers to outpitch the Phillies, Padres, or different NL rivals, both.
Houston Astros (88-73, AL’s No. 3 Seed, 11 P.c WS Odds)
Why they’ll win:They’re the Astros, with seven consecutive journeys to the ALCS. Don’t let the mediocre file idiot you: Since a horrible 12-24 begin, Houston is an MLB-best 76-49 (that’s a 98-win tempo over a full season). The acquainted lineup tentpoles are nonetheless right here, and Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman are all mashing. In the meantime, the rotation has excelled even with out useful contributions from 41-year-old Justin Verlander. Led by Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and deadline pickup Yusei Kikuchi, the Astros led the majors in beginning pitcher WAR after the All-Star break.
Why they gained’t:The lineup isn’t almost so long as the Astros are accustomed to in October, as catcher Yainer Diaz affords the one dependable above-average bat past the core 4. The Astros additionally rank twenty ninth in baserunning worth, forward of solely the Yankees. In the meantime, a bullpen that projected for 3 shutdown relievers this season won’t have any: Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, and Bryan Abreu mixed for a 2.23 ERA final season however all have ERAs of three.10 or increased in 2024.
San Diego Padres (93-69, NL’s No. 4 Seed, 8 P.c WS Odds)
Why they’ll win:In 2022, the Padres reached the NLCS with a rotation headlined by Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove—however now their rotation is so deep that these two veterans are the no. 3 and 4 starters, respectively. Dylan Stop and Michael King have been each great of their first seasons in San Diego, combining for 8.7 WAR. And that fearsome foursome is backed by a deep and efficient bullpen, which seemed robust even earlier than Tanner Scott, Jason Adam, and Bryan Hoeing arrived as deadline reinforcements. That trio mixed for a 1.76 ERA in San Diego, whereas pen-mates Robert Suarez, Adrián Morejón, and Jeremiah Estrada all checked in with sub-3.00 ERAs as properly.
The Padres offense isn’t fairly as dominant due to Ha-Seong Kim’s season-ending shoulder harm and Xander Bogaerts’s down 12 months. However they’re nonetheless able to matching nearly any opponent run for run, thanks largely to their outfield trio of Fernando Tatis Jr., Jurickson Profar, and Rookie of the Yr contender Jackson Merrill. Solely the Yankees, with Decide and Soto, have the next wRC+ from outfielders than the Padres do.
Why they gained’t: The Padres boasted a teamwide 116 wRC+ towards right-handed pitchers—the third-best mark within the majors, behind solely the Yankees and Dodgers. However they completed with a below-average 96 wRC+ towards lefties; amongst playoff golf equipment, solely the Tigers and Royals fared worse.
Common starters Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, and Luis Arráez are all lefty batters who hit a lot worse towards same-handed hurlers; righties Bogaerts and Tatis posted reverse splits this season; and the Padres don’t have many higher choices for platoon functions. Studying an excessive amount of into splits and subsamples is a harmful recreation, however the Padres is perhaps compelled to confront this downside instantly, in the event that they face any of Chris Sale, Max Fried, Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, or Eduardo Rodríguez within the wild-card spherical.
Cleveland Guardians (92-69, AL’s No. 2 Seed, 7 P.c WS Odds)
Why they’ll win:Opposing groups had higher take a lead over the Guardians within the first few innings of any given recreation, or else they’re not going to win. Cleveland’s bullpen shortens video games so successfully due to its high quality and amount of prime relievers: The Guardians are the primary crew in MLB historical past with 4 relievers—Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and Tim Herrin—who every completed with a sub-2.00 ERA in not less than 60 innings. And as a whole reduction corps, Cleveland posted the finest win chance added for any bullpen within the final half century, which is way back to FanGraphs’ WPA calculations go.
Why they gained’t:Opposing groups may properly take leads over the Guardians early in video games, as a result of Cleveland’s beginning rotation is as weak a unit as exists within the playoff subject. Cleveland ranked twenty seventh in starter WAR this season—forward of solely the last-place Angels, Rockies, and Marlins—and Tanner Bibee is the crew’s solely reliable possibility.
Extra broadly, Cleveland performed past its means all season lengthy, and it’s unlikely that run of fine fortune will proceed for an additional high-pressure month. The Guardians’ BaseRuns file—which estimates a crew’s anticipated file primarily based on the results of each plate look—was simply 81-80. Cleveland outperformed that expectation by 11 video games, whereas no different playoff crew was greater than three wins forward of its BaseRuns file.
Atlanta Braves (88-72, NL’s No. 5/7 Seed, 7 P.c WS Odds)
Why they’ll win:Regardless of a plethora of ruinous accidents—extra on that in a second—Atlanta has remained in potential playoff place as a consequence of a stellar rotation. Chris Sale is on the verge of his long-awaited first Cy Younger award, Max Fried turned in a terrific contract 12 months, and rookie Spencer Schwellenbach and transformed reliever Reynaldo López each excelled in fewer innings. Toss in an incredible bullpen, and Atlanta led the majors in pitching WAR.
Why they gained’t:Atlanta’s prime three projected gamers this season have been, so as, Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, and Austin Riley. All three are completed for the 12 months. Their subsequent 5 best-projected gamers included Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Sean Murphy, who’ve all suffered from harm, underperformance, or each.
However a lackluster offense—a rotten follow-up to a traditionally nice season on the plate—isn’t the principle motive Atlanta may battle to advance in October. The membership’s best downside is logistical, because it should navigate a house doubleheader on Monday after which win a best-of-three collection in San Diego simply to achieve the NLDS. Atlanta nonetheless has a shot—particularly if it could possibly win the primary recreation towards the Mets on Monday, thereby saving Sale for the wild-card spherical—however that’s a tall job for a crew already lacking so many key gamers.
Baltimore Orioles (91-71, AL’s No. 4 Seed, 5 P.c WS Odds)
Why they’ll win:9 Orioles batted not less than 300 occasions this season, and all 9 had an above-average batting line. There aren’t any straightforward outs on this lineup—not on the prime, the place Gunnar Henderson may need gained MVP in a much less crowded subject; nor within the center, the place Anthony Santander clubbed 44 homers; nor on the backside, the place the likes of Cedric Mullins and Ramón Urías supply robust platoon choices. Adley Rutschman’s horrible stoop (64 wRC+ for the reason that begin of July) hurts, however the total Baltimore lineup stays a potent pressure, with an enviable steadiness of handedness, energy and velocity, and youth and veteran know-how.
Why they gained’t:Just like the Dodgers, the Orioles have extra high-caliber beginning pitchers on the injured listing than within the present rotation. This group has an entire lot of query marks after Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin, and it’s not as if the bullpen offers way more certainty; saves chief Craig Kimbrel was designated for task earlier this month, and substitute nearer Seranthony Domínguez has allowed six homers in 22 2/3 innings together with his new membership. The Orioles may have to win a pair playoff video games by soccer scores in the event that they need to keep alive till late October.
Arizona Diamondbacks (89-73, NL’s No. 6/7 Seed, 3 P.c WS Odds)
Why they’ll win:Do you want offense? As a result of the Diamondbacks rating in bunches. They led the majors in runs and second-half wRC+, as Corbin Carroll returned to type, Eugenio Suárez exploded, and Ketel Marte produced at a prolific clip when wholesome. Just like the Orioles, the highest 9 Diamondbacks in plate appearances have been all above-average hitters over the complete season; not like the Orioles, the Diamondbacks additionally ranked among the many majors’ finest fielding groups, too, emphasizing the all-around excellence of Arizona’s lineup.
Why they gained’t:You possibly can’t win within the playoffs with out first reaching the playoffs, and Arizona is in a tenuous spot. If Atlanta and New York break up their doubleheader on Monday—which appears possible, on condition that whichever crew wins the primary recreation would need to relaxation all its prime gamers within the second recreation—then each these groups would qualify forward of Arizona, as a consequence of tiebreakers, and the Diamondbacks would miss out on a possibility to defend their Nationwide League pennant.
Such could be a brutal end result for Arizona, which made an effort to enhance over the winter and ended up with a a lot better crew in 2024 (89 wins and a plus-98 run differential) than in 2023 (84 wins and a minus-15 scoring margin). However FanGraphs odds recommend Arizona has solely a roughly 50-50 likelihood to achieve the wild-card spherical at this level, and the percentages don’t even issue within the psychological components that ought to encourage a doubleheader break up.
Kansas Metropolis Royals (86-76, AL’s No. 5 Seed, 3 P.c WS Odds)
Why they’ll win:Particularly within the shorter early playoff rounds, the Royals will be capable of flex a wonderful prime of the rotation; Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo ranked second and third, respectively, amongst AL pitchers in WAR, they usually is perhaps sufficient to win a spherical or two by themselves. And on the place participant facet, 24-year-old Bobby Witt Jr. seems primed for a breakout postseason after a ten.4-WAR common season—the fifth-best for a shortstop in MLB historical past. Witt leads a protection that Statcast ranks as baseball’s finest.
Why they gained’t:Sadly for Kansas Metropolis, a crew can’t win solely by stopping runs; it has to attain some, too, and that’s the place the Royals run into bother. Witt, the slumping Salvador Perez, and the injured Vinnie Pasquantino are the one Royals with higher than a 102 wRC+ in any variety of plate appearances this season. Kansas Metropolis is neck and neck with the Tigers for worst playoff crew throughout a bunch of offensive classes. Oh, and the Royals have been 12-1 towards the traditionally horrible White Sox—and a mere 74-75 towards each different crew.
Milwaukee Brewers (93-69, NL’s No. 3 Seed, 3 P.c WS Odds)
Why they’ll win:Milwaukee excels on the margins, including worth in all of the little areas that aren’t instantly apparent when analyzing a lineup or rotation. The Brewers rated as an elite defensive crew, particularly within the outfield. They thrived in high-leverage reduction conditions, inserting second behind the Guardians in bullpen WPA. They usually led the majors in baserunning worth and ranked second in stolen bases, with a a lot better success fee than the Nationals, who led in uncooked steals. These seemingly hidden benefits may very well be the distinction in a league with none overwhelming superteams.
Why they gained’t:The Brewers’ finest hitter, Christian Yelich, was having fun with a resurgent season—till he harm his again, which is able to preserve him on the bench throughout the playoffs. With Yelich out, Milwaukee’s lineup seems to be extra fantastic than nice; William Contreras, Willy Adames, and rookie sensation Jackson Chourio can all rake, however there are too many common to below-average hitters behind them.
Like Cleveland, furthermore, Milwaukee’s wonderful bullpen comes at the price of a subpar rotation. Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers have been the one Brewers pitchers value greater than 1 WAR this 12 months. (Midseason pickup Frankie Montas gathered a mixed 1.4 WAR with two groups, however that’s as a consequence of quantity, not high quality, of innings: He had a below-average ERA and FIP.)
Detroit Tigers (86-76, AL’s No. 6 Seed, 3 P.c WS Odds)
Why they’ll win:They is perhaps a crew of future. The Tigers have been sellers on the commerce deadline and bottomed out at 55-63 on August 10—solely to storm to a 31-13 file the remainder of the best way, with the underlying efficiency to match. And if Detroit is really a crew out of the prophecies and storybooks, then Tarik Skubal is the azor ahai to steer them. The Tigers southpaw will declare the Cy Younger trophy later this fall after profitable the majors’ first pitching Triple Crown since 2011. (Sale will nearly actually match that feat within the Nationwide League.)
Why they gained’t:With the utmost respect for the Tigers’ Cinderella run, this roster simply has rather a lot much less expertise than its opposing numbers in October. Detroit’s lineup is barren past Riley Greene and a few platoon bats, which is why the Tigers scored fewer runs than every other playoff membership. And after Skubal and Reese Olson, the pitching employees is a patchwork quilt of openers and bulk guys, nameless relievers and reclamation arms. That plan has labored for the final two months, but it surely’s a dicey technique for October.
New York Mets (88-72, NL’s No. 5/6/7 Seed, 2 P.c WS Odds)
Why they’ll win:The Mets are a well-rounded crew with high-caliber batters (possible MVP runner-up Francisco Lindor), starters (shrewd free agent signee Sean Manaea), and relievers (a resurgent Edwin Díaz, with an MLB-best 46 p.c strikeout fee within the second half). Few groups have performed higher baseball of late than the Mets, who boast a 26-13 file since mid-August. That’s not fairly Tigers-level momentum, but it surely’s not far behind.
Why they gained’t:The Mets are well-rounded, positive, however they don’t have a ton of apparent strengths. Their roster is a report card stuffed with B-plus grades with none As—particularly with Lindor hampered by a again harm that compelled him to overlook two weeks through the playoff race. The Mets nonetheless want to achieve the playoffs, and even when they get there, they’ll enter October with the least-talented roster within the NL subject. Stranger issues have occurred (see: Arizona’s run to the World Collection simply final 12 months!), however a Mets championship in 2024 seems to be, for now, just like the least possible end result this postseason.
